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Feb 24-25, 2022 Ice/Sleet/Rain/Snow (yeah sure) Storm Thread


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

We know it won’t happen, but that would be awful. It would create a lot of damage. Once you reach 1/2” of ice bad stuff starts happening quickly.

SV looks a bit difference.  Freezing line placement wouldn't look like those maps.  For you, yes.  For me, no

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Just now, stormtracker said:

SV looks a bit difference.  Freezing line placement wouldn't look like those maps.  For you, yes.  For me, no

That’s good. I have no desire to see that. However … and this is a big one, if … if the gfs is correct with the storm placement, it is almost 100% gonna under forecast the low level cold. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That’s good. I have no desire to see that. However … and this is a big one, if … if the gfs is correct with the storm placement, it is almost 100% gonna under forecast the low level cold. 

Let me clarify...you'd be f*cked on both maps.  The differences are for my area.

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Pretty evident to me by now that this ice event is going to be a northern/western MD, western VA, and north event.  I'm sure we may see a couple of stray model runs that look like the colder air is "farther south this run!" but I honestly don't see the overall picture changing much.  Sort of like the big New England storm a few weeks back, where we hung on every slight hint of a "closer to the coast" thread.  Still, I would not be surprised to see a bit of sleet or ice in the DC metro area at some point.

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This is definitely turning to a more northern tier event with Western MD involved, perhaps. I think this is PA/NYS storm by the looks of it. CIPS Analogs is pretty meager for south of the M/D, and there's lots of events that are similar in evolution in the past with good scoring on 5H/7H/85H height fields. Unless we see an abrupt shift with the SLP depiction further south or the blocking up north is stronger, likely going to trend a minor to nada for most of the sub-forum. That's just from everything I've looked at recently. 

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My superstition...or calendar-stition...is that we don't get much good happening the week after PD, lol I don't know why but all the big snows either came before or not until March. No scientific reason...It just never seems to work out at least for my atea--even in the legendary 2010 we missed one that last week of Feb (as if we needed more at that point--certainly not complaining!). Again no science...just calendar-stition :lol: 

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