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February 24/25 Potential Winter Storm


mikem81
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When you look at the wind directions on all models you can actually see the CAD signature develops as the surface low strengthens and approaches from the SRN Ohio Valley.  Both GFS/NAM show winds 21-00Z try to go light 09-130...the GFS obviously turns them SE as it cannot resolve even the weak damming signature at this range...then past 02Z they back towards 040-060 again.  I still question whether this is a snow event for more than an hour at the coast...its much safer to lean mainly sleet at this time

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

When you look at the wind directions on all models you can actually see the CAD signature develops as the surface low strengthens and approaches from the SRN Ohio Valley.  Both GFS/NAM show winds 21-00Z try to go light 09-130...the GFS obviously turns them SE as it cannot resolve even the weak damming signature at this range...then past 02Z they back towards 040-060 again.  I still question whether this is a snow event for more than an hour at the coast...its much safer to lean mainly sleet at this time

If it's mainly sleet thats going to be a lot of sleet!  

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1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

If it's mainly sleet thats going to be a lot of sleet!  

If there’s no mechanism to bring warm surface air in from the ocean, from an E or SE wind, it’s hard to see how we go above freezing. If the cold NE wind stays for the storm I think most of us would stay sleet or go to sleet/ZR. For snow though since the mid levels usually warm up faster than modeled at this stage and the tracks are lousy for us, you’d want to be north of I-84 or preferably along I-90. 

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Some models are showing a heavy ZR area near the city and north shore especially. RGEM would be an ice storm warning level event. 

Learning my lesson from the last potential ice storm. Completely different setup but we need to wait for the high resolution mesoscale models to come into better range.

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21 minutes ago, uncle W said:

there was a storm on February 12-13th 1993 that looks like what's forecast for Thur/Fri...3" of snow and ice changing to rain after hours of sleet...

Cancelled my V-Day dance, I was a very upset teen....setup was not bad, cold air was majorly lacking though...could have easily been all snow with a good air mass

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0212.php

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38 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If there’s no mechanism to bring warm surface air in from the ocean, from an E or SE wind, it’s hard to see how we go above freezing. If the cold NE wind stays for the storm I think most of us would stay sleet or go to sleet/ZR. For snow though since the mid levels usually warm up faster than modeled at this stage and the tracks are lousy for us, you’d want to be north of I-84 or preferably along I-90. 

On the flip side models have trended colder the last 24 hours at surface and aloft. Models also underestimate cold air to the north. A well respected poster on another board quoting a well respected met said  

"we never close off at 850 or 700 and 850's have multi focal vort max's.  The front end thump you have 700 screaming out of the west and 850 out of the SW and not S, SE or E like when you get that close 850 low.  A well respected met taught me a long time ago that when you see 700mb out of the west with an over running event without any of the mid levels closing off it screams of correcting colder and snowier.  It would not surprise me if the mid level trends cont we get colder and snowier down to the coast."

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wouldn't get my hopes up if you're expecting snow.

I'm thinking ZR/Sleet to rain for anyone south of I-78 including the city. 

I agree - first of all the EURO is wrong on Pivitol weather with its snow accumulations south of I-78 take a closer look at the precip types........

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6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wouldn't get my hopes up if you're expecting snow.

I'm thinking ZR/Sleet to rain for anyone south of I-78 including the city. 

Usually a HP sliding east of Maine into the Atlantic is the sign of no snow. I see a HP in perfect position on all the models here and hints at earlier coastal development...

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5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Strange distribution on the island on east winds. It’s hard for it to snow more in MTK then the north shore of Nassau on that wind direction. I think that’s too close to model output vs reality 

and how does FOK have so much more than JFK? JFK is further west, we're usually colder than FOK on east winds.  I do know our ZR and snow lasts longer

 

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5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

It’s at the time of year where urban heat island will hurt, and the cold air is generally coming from the NE, so this is a rare setup where it can snow more  on the Forks than NYC. 

but we have scenarios like Jan 1994 and VD 2007 where JFK stays below freezing and east of Oceanside goes above.

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