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February 24/25 Potential Winter Storm


mikem81
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25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

One storm threat at a time unless this becomes the main show.

it would be cool to have 2 separate storm threads going at the same time but not enough confidence to create a late weekend thread YET........plus this coming storm has more questions than answers right now and low confidence...

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4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

We know these tend to bump north so to think we get a decent event would like to see the south trend continue through tomorrow.

Yes they do but didn't we have a swfe earlier in the winter and it didn't bump north. It actually stayed south.

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Keep in mind (something I discuss in any setup where there could be sleet) there's quite a potential sleet signature, as per the GFS, especially, which is showing >6"+ of "10:1 ratio snow" most of which is really likely to be 3:1 ratio sleet, verbatim, looking at the Tidbits snowfall map.  The Tidbits map counts all of the sleet as 10:1 snow, while the Tidbits and Pivotal snow depth maps seem like they are doing some combo of 10:1 snow and maybe 3-5:1 sleet, depending on location.  It's impossible to tell exactly, which is why I often prefer the Tidbits snow/sleet map, all at 10:1, so I at least know one important thing and that is the mass of frozen precip (not including freezing rain) - as mass is a very important emergency planning number, as snow removal and driving (apart from visibility) impacts are most closely related to frozen mass, not depth. The NAM shows similar outcomes for the model outputs fro Pivotal and TT with regard to sleet/snow.   I wish they would publish separate sleet maps (including the assumed ratio).

 

 

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

 

snodpc_acc.us_ma.png

 

gfs_asnowd_neus_19.png

 

gfs_asnow_neus_19.png

 

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7 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

it would be cool to have 2 separate storm threads going at the same time but not enough confidence to create a late weekend thread YET........plus this coming storm has more questions than answers right now and low confidence...

think about what it would've been like on this forum in 1993-94 from December thru March lol

2 storms every week

30 total storms

 

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow thats 6 inches of snow even here

Pretty unlikely it plays out that way this is one of those setups you do not want to be on the south shore, despite the colder water temps. This has been and always will be a city Nw storm. The northern parts of the city and the extreme north shore of the island are the big question, could be pretty high impact 

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