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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)


Kmlwx
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Golf ball sized hail and winds to 70 mph in latest STW

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
512 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northeastern Madison County in northwestern Virginia...
  South central Rappahannock County in northwestern Virginia...
  Western Culpeper County in northern Virginia...

* Until 600 PM EDT.

* At 512 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast
  of Sperryville, or 10 miles northwest of Culpeper, moving southeast
  at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is
           large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail
           damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible.

* Locations impacted include...
  Culpeper, Castleton, Catalpa, Slate Mills, Brandy Station,
  Woodville, Winston, Cardova, Reva, Rixeyville, Alanthus, Boston and
  Five Forks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3854 7828 3866 7820 3854 7784 3836 7800
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 300DEG 12KT 3855 7817

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
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8 minutes ago, George BM said:

Just noticed that from radarscope wondering whether it was a glitch. So you heard thunder from them?

Hearing LOUD thunder within the past 20 mins in Colesville, MD. Maybe anvil crawlers? 

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3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Hearing LOUD thunder within the past 20 mins in Colesville, MD. Maybe anvil crawlers? 

     Definitely electrified anvil activity.     You can see very slight reflectivity in the areas where the strikes occurred.

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6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Uh, watch box is canceled? 

         I'm as skeptical as you are about round 2, especially given model trends, but I'm still surprised that they did this.   The recent MD talked about the threat later this evening, but I'm guessing that the evening shift came on at SPC and decided that the threat isn't enough to keep the watch up.   

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7 minutes ago, high risk said:

         I'm as skeptical as you are about round 2, especially given model trends, but I'm still surprised that they did this.   The recent MD talked about the threat later this evening, but I'm guessing that the evening shift came on at SPC and decided that the threat isn't enough to keep the watch up.   

SPC mesoanalysis update have -100 CIN over us. We're just too stable.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

SPC mesoanalysis update have -100 CIN over us. We're just too stable.

Yup - even during the afternoon sunshine/heat there was CIN over areas east of the Potomac. Even more obvious when the current VA cells couldn't make it eastward. If they can't get into the area at 5:30pm, they very likely won't be able to at midnight (or later tonight in general) unless there is a good source of forcing to overcome the negative factors. 

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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


It’s broad and there still but not as impressive now - hook less apparent on radar.

Tops have gone down by about 20kft and a new cell is popping up to the southwest. Perhaps it went outflow dominant and we're seeing a tremendous wet microburst. I'll bet there is a shelf cloud to end all shelf clouds ongoing.

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8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Think another TW might be needed behind it south of Gordonsville. Real nasty storm. If this was ~80 miles north would be the severe wx day of the season.

We just suck at weather. It's that simple. It's always something.

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