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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)


Kmlwx
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Morning AFD update from LWX as of 1035am

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Latest surface analysis show a quasi-stationary front stalled
near the VA/NC border with a cold front draped across the Great
Lakes. The stationary front will gradually lift north through
the day and into tonight and eventually interact/collide with
the approaching cold front.

Through the early afternoon, the local region is going to be
positioned between two shortwaves with subsidence. Guidance
continues to suggest showers and thunderstorms develop on the
lee-side pressure trough late this afternoon as a weak shortwave
moves through. These showers/thunderstorms then slowly advance
to the northeast, posing an isolated flood/flash flood threat
for any storms that train over the same area. Uncertainty in
coverage and placement of the lee-pressure trough and therefore
the thunderstorm placement is somewhat uncertain. Current
thinking is anywhere from the Shenandoah Valley to east of the
Blue Ridge. Any thunderstorm is capable of producing gusty
winds.

As the aforementioned frontal boundaries begin to merge nearby,
a line of convergence will develop overnight. A stronger
shortwave with low-level to surface based broad low pressure
will move over the frontal boundary this evening into the
overnight. This low will continue advancing along the front
through Saturday. PWs will be near record levels for the day,
with widespread 2-2.5" values (2-3 SA above climo). The WCL will
be high (above 4 km), with a high FZL indicating warm rain
processes will be dominant. Given the forecast low-level
forcing, the PWs in guidance seem realistic. There are two
variables leading to some uncertainty: 1) The amount of
instability (generally 100-750 J/kg) and 2) The spread in models
with where exacting the positioning of the front will be and
the amount of low-level and fgen forcing present with the low as
it moves nearby. Should the higher magnitudes of forcing be
realized, a higher-impact heavy rain event would be plausible,
however should the lower magnitudes of forcing come to fruition,
this may be more of a beneficial light to moderate soaking
rain.

The area of greatest concern remains over the largely
hydrophobic Baltimore/Washington Metro areas. FFG is lowest in
this area. Will continue to assess latest 12Z guidance before
making any headline considerations.
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8 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Seems like we’re just seeing this precip max just waffle around. Someone’s going to get some trouble tonight it’s just a matter of where. 

That's typical. QPF forecasting for systems that have several mesoscale features will waffle around. Only thing I've noticed over the years is that we see the axis of heavy rain wind up a bit further north and east from where the short term guidance shows up.

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33 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Seems the meso guidance pushing PWATS close to 3", while the globals only around 2". Wonder if that's a resolution issue, or if the short term guidance is keying in on something the globals might be missing out on.

It has felt supper humid so I guess it makes since that the PWATS are so high. What is the record for them around this time of year 

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