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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)


Kmlwx
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14z HRRR predicts initiation in the higher elevations/Blue Ridge area around 3pm with a cluster then growing upscale in NoVA and Central Maryland in the hours following. The lines/cluster pushes east of the bay on that model by 0z. Simulated echo tops get to around 40-50kft as well. Not too bad on that run! 

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57 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

14z HRRR predicts initiation in the higher elevations/Blue Ridge area around 3pm with a cluster then growing upscale in NoVA and Central Maryland in the hours following. The lines/cluster pushes east of the bay on that model by 0z. Simulated echo tops get to around 40-50kft as well. Not too bad on that run! 

CAMS this morning has everyone socked in with clouds, but it's mostly sunny across the region. As they're getting a better handle on current conditions, they're pumping a better line out.

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Been up since this morning. It's been pretty dry recently and the storm motion today seems progressive. Guess it's more for the urbanized watersheds.

FFG is like 1.5-2" for 1 hour in DC proper. A good complex of storms could do that I guess. Elsewhere is 2-3 inches. 

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Everything kind of congealed into that one big complex. It's been tough to get them to propagate to the south at all so far. Lots of easterly movement in the storm motions. Looks like outflow from earlier has moved all the way to Damascus, Clarksburg, Comus, back to Point of Rocks. Another boundary looks like it's in extreme northern Loudoun County. 

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29 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Everything kind of congealed into that one big complex. It's been tough to get them to propagate to the south at all so far. Lots of easterly movement in the storm motions. Looks like outflow from earlier has moved all the way to Damascus, Clarksburg, Comus, back to Point of Rocks. Another boundary looks like it's in extreme northern Loudoun County. 

Here is that boundary in Loudoun 

16568033158905805004327124464428.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea tops are going up and it's creeping out ahead of the main line. Could see it getting warned shortly.

Warned. Really impressive cell thus far. Already seeing some outflow on it - hoping it doesn't just collapse. Warning has a decent trajectory for MBY

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