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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)


Kmlwx
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4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

NAM nest (18z) disagrees but pushes a nice line through Thur PM - decent UH signature right through the metro as well. But we all know that this far out it doesn't mean much. 

Decent amount of large hail analog dates showing up on SARS for the NAM/NAM nest 18z run soundings. Thur and Fri are where my attention is at the moment.

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53 minutes ago, yoda said:

Those are some ridiculous soundings once again on the 18z NAM for 21z THUR to 03z FRI (but particularly 00z FRI aka Thursday night at 8pm)

Think I saw some loaded gun type soundings when I peeked earlier. Some inhibition to deal with it seems though

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2 hours ago, osfan24 said:

NAM seems to like Thursday morning and then Thursday evening.

Summer or winter, it’s still the NAM. LOL. 

I just want some good thunder boomers. I don’t need every damn storm to be severe, though they do tend to be what I’m looking for (and it seems like we have them all the time now).  I just don’t need damaging storms (my house or anyone else’s). 

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27 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

HRRR and NAM insistent on dropping an MCS or something like it through Delmarva and east of US 15 around morning Thursday. 

       Very consistent signal in model runs late this afternoon and early evening.    The SVR potential seems to be low, but I'd be fine with some heavy rain and noise.

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50 minutes ago, yoda said:

13z SPC OTLK now includes all of N VA north of around EZF and includes BWI/DC metro in SLGT risk... 2/15/15

5% TOR now includes C and W MD and E WV into extreme NW VA

           Seems to be 2 scenarios:

    1)   Supercells form in western PA this afternoon, and a QLCS emerges and drops southeast into our area (6Z NAM Nest and 12Z ARW2).     Shear is better to our west and northwest where a greater TOR threat would exist.    We'd locally have a shot at damaging winds, although the system might be weakening

    2)   The PA storms never really get rolling, but some scattered storms develop locally late this afternoon, with some wind threat (12Z HRRR).

         Of course, both scenarios for us are dependent upon clearing out the morning clouds.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, high risk said:

           Seems to be 2 scenarios:

    1)   Supercells form in western PA this afternoon, and a QLCS emerges and drops southeast into our area (6Z NAM Nest and 12Z ARW2).     Shear is better to our west and northwest where a greater TOR threat would exist.    We'd locally have a shot at damaging winds, although the system might be weakening

    2)   The PA storms never really get rolling, but some scattered storms develop locally late this afternoon, with some wind threat (12Z HRRR).

         Of course, both scenarios for us are dependent upon clearing out the morning clouds.

 

 

Clearing here with nice sun

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Updated morning AFD from LWX

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cluster of storms continues to move across far northeast MD.
Given recent radar imagery and trends upstream, main threat is
for a brief period of soaking rain. The 12Z RAOB from IAD had a
PW of just under 2.0" indicating an anomalously moist airmass.

Issued a heat advisory for portions of the eastern panhandle of
WV, western MD, and northern Shenandoah Valley. A similar setup
as yesterday should result in criteria being met for several
hours this afternoon (heat indices of 100-104 degrees). The
anomalously high dew points as of mid-morning in the mid 70s
have already resulted in heat index values in the mid 90s in
this area. If outdoors today, stay hydrated and practice heat
safety. See weather.gov/heat for more info.

Regarding the severe weather potential today, there are two
periods of interest. The first is from late this afternoon into
this evening along a lee pressure trough. High res guidance has
trended in a more robust environment this afternoon from US-15
east with sfc CAPE of 2000 J/kg+ and deep layer shear of 35-45
kts. Should any storm form in this area/environment, it could
quickly become severe posing a damaging wind and large hail
threat. These storms would also likely be efficient rain
producers due to the anomalously moist airmass, though storms
should remain progressive to some extent.

The second period of interest is late this evening into the
early parts of tonight. A cold front will be positioned across
the southern Great Lakes. Storms will develop along the Lake
Erie lake breeze and progress southeast. Uncertainty arises with
the areal extent of the storms in part due to the warm air aloft
since these storms will not be on the actual cold front. Will
continue to monitor this potential as storms approach the region
from Pennsylvania. Additionally, the timing of this approaching
convective activity may be after peak heating.
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8 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z NAM NEST goes nuts from DC metro to BWI metro from 00z to 06z :o

Looks like some of that may/will not be surface rooted, though. Some CINH is indicated from the maps on the CoD site and the wind gust product is pretty paltry. 

Lots of disagreement in the modeling 

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