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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)


Kmlwx
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000
NWUS51 KLWX 162206
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
605 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     HAIL             4 SSE CHESAPEAKE BEACH  38.63N  76.52W
05/16/2022  M3.00 INCH       CALVERT            MD   COCORAHS


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2203434

 

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28 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

D2 ENH is the new D2 MOD in these parts. Oy.

If my memory is correct - a significant number of our *good* moderate days have come when SPC has added the moderate area at 13z or later. Without going to the SPC site, I believe June 4, 2008 was either bumped to a mod at 13z or 1630z. We call know June 29, 2012 was barely outlooked earlier that same day before going to a moderate risk as the line formed/approached. 

Am thinking there's other notable ones as well. I think the failure potential is just way too high to warrant moderate risks in this part of the country more than a few hours ahead. Too many variables. I don't envy SPC's job of course - and not digging on them - but elevating the risk area too far ahead of time can lead to public distrust over time...particularly in this day and age when SPC forecasts are all over social media and more widely seen by the public. 

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On 5/16/2022 at 10:09 PM, Kmlwx said:

If my memory is correct - a significant number of our *good* moderate days have come when SPC has added the moderate area at 13z or later. Without going to the SPC site, I believe June 4, 2008 was either bumped to a mod at 13z or 1630z. We call know June 29, 2012 was barely outlooked earlier that same day before going to a moderate risk as the line formed/approached. 

Am thinking there's other notable ones as well. I think the failure potential is just way too high to warrant moderate risks in this part of the country more than a few hours ahead. Too many variables. I don't envy SPC's job of course - and not digging on them - but elevating the risk area too far ahead of time can lead to public distrust over time...particularly in this day and age when SPC forecasts are all over social media and more widely seen by the public. 

I completely agree with this assessment. I'm  a big fan of not "over forecasting" the event. There is nothing wrong with waking up to a strongly worded slight risk then adding the ENH, or MOD at the day goes on. I think that's why the April 27, 2011 event in Alabama was so well forecast because SPC and the local WFOs just upped the confidence as the event drew close.

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I completely agree with this assessment. I'm  a big fan of not "over forecasting" the event. There is nothing wrong with waking up to a strongly worded slight risk then adding the ENH, or MOD at the day goes on. I think that's why the April 27, 2011 event in Alabama was so well forecast because SPC and the local WFOs just upped the confidence as the event drew close.

I think there's something to be said to timing of a threat too. For a nocturnal event, I can certainly see the merits of emphasizing a threat before average bedtimes since people may miss alerts ahead of time. But for a normal afternoon/evening severe events, there's plenty of time in the morning and even up to 12 or 1 for nowcasting and seeing how things like instability, CIN etc are playing out in real time before going big on an event. 

ENH for our area I truly believe is essentially the new moderate. It's still possible we'd get a moderate with hatching - but if you look at the breakdown of what is ENH vs MOD now - I think mod is going to be much harder for us to attain locally. 

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27 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I think there's something to be said to timing of a threat too. For a nocturnal event, I can certainly see the merits of emphasizing a threat before average bedtimes since people may miss alerts ahead of time. But for a normal afternoon/evening severe events, there's plenty of time in the morning and even up to 12 or 1 for nowcasting and seeing how things like instability, CIN etc are playing out in real time before going big on an event. 

ENH for our area I truly believe is essentially the new moderate. It's still possible we'd get a moderate with hatching - but if you look at the breakdown of what is ENH vs MOD now - I think mod is going to be much harder for us to attain locally. 

Yup. Couple of hard learned lessoned learned about convective days here:

1.) Always take the under. You won't be dissapointed.

2.) There are a lot of ways we lose in these parts, mostly from terrain and water boundaries.

3.) If we get a good EML/mid level lapse rates, it helps to overcome the aforementioned local issues.

4.) We don't do multiple rounds of storms well, unless you're angling for flooding.

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