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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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poolz1
poolz1

Bro In law caught this beast of a bolt in Fenwick yesterday.  Too bad the neighbor's roof blocks part of the view but a pretty wild shot nonetheless.           

poolz1
poolz1

Lots of thunder, lightning and heavy rain.  No wind hardly at all.  Perfect rainbow storm with the sun breaking out as the clouds cleared to the west. Saw the rainbow and told my 12 yo daughter to tak

Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I was stuck in a meeting and couldn't get outside, but that Loudoun cell was looking pretty beastly from inside on approach. Thankful that the worst stayed just north of me

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted

For those of you watching from home with GR radar, here's the experimental NOAA CIMSS placefile for estimating the probability of a storm/cluster/line producing severe weather:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/NOAACIMSS_PROBSEVERE

More info including documentation: https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/training/training.html#psv2

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1020 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will approach the area later today, then cross
the area tonight. High pressure will build in Friday into Saturday.
A cold front and wave of low pressure are expected to move over the
area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure is expected to make
another brief return early next week before unsettled weather
returns by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The focus of the near term will be on the potential for severe
thunderstorms with the primary threat being damaging winds and
the potential for an isolated tornado and large hail. The main
uncertainty for this event will be how much instability is
realized, and if it is rooted within the boundary layer. 12Z
CAMs continue to show an upward trend in potential instability
this afternoon/evening along and east of I-81. If this
instability comes to fruition, given the ample shear in place
and height falls along the trough/cold front, strong to severe
thunderstorms could be more widespread in nature. The LLJ will
be pumping Gulf Moisture into the area at 55-70 kts at 850 mb
and 40-60 kts at 925 mb. There is the potential for cellular
storms ahead/along the cold front before they congeal into a
linear feature that may include the potential for mesovorticies
along the leading edge. Again, this all depends on if modeled
instability is realized. Previous discussion follows...
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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, high risk said:

 

        It's worth noting that the HRRR has trended this morning towards the NAM Nest idea of a later show for those of us in central MD     This isn't ideal, as while temps won't be plummeting after sunset, we need every degree of heating we can get, given that we're looking at very limited instability even at peak heating.    Areas further west and north look to have a better shot at SVR due to more favorable timing, unless some scattered cells form out ahead of the primary line or if the line advances further to the southeast earlier.

      

Might just be me, but it seems like the line is forming and trucking a bit faster than what's been progged on the HRRR and some of the other CAMs. Timing might now be too much of an issue.

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toolsheds

toolsheds

Posted
Posted

Last night I was watching the Ryan Hall livestream and he explained that since this system has so much shear, It didn't take much to kick off strong, severe storms.  THere were a lot of tornado warned cells last night on the pre-front line of storms, and then more in the actual frontal passage.    I think there was even one or two areas which had different tornado warned cells pass over about an hour apart.  

I am definitely not a knowledgeable as many of you on this, but just wanted to pass that along. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1157 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northern Indiana County in west central Pennsylvania...
  Jefferson County in west central Pennsylvania...
  Southeastern Armstrong County in west central Pennsylvania...
  Southeastern Clarion County in west central Pennsylvania...

* Until 1245 PM EDT.

* At 1156 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from 8 miles north of New Bethlehem to 12 miles west of
  Punxsutawney to 8 miles west of Indiana, moving northeast at 70
  mph.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Trees snapped and uprooted. Power outages.

* Locations impacted include...
  Punxsutawney, Brookville, Reynoldsville, Brockway, New Bethlehem,
  Sykesville, Falls Creek, Rural Valley, West Lebanon, Big Run,
  Dayton, and Summerville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms likely are producing
very strong wind gusts. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure
and stay away from windows! Please report severe weather by calling
412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using
Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

LAT...LON 4120 7877 4113 7880 4081 7881 4054 7940
      4087 7928 4115 7936 4138 7897 4136 7896
      4126 7874 4123 7874 4123 7871 4120 7871
TIME...MOT...LOC 1556Z 236DEG 60KT 4112 7927 4091 7922 4065 7931

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Outline of the meso is blue, so I'm leaning severe t'storm: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2022/md0376.html

True... I was going by last paragraph  

Mesoscale Discussion 0376
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1107 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022

   Areas affected...Western/central Pennsylvania into western Maryland

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 311607Z - 311730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage is possible early this afternoon as
   storm develop in western Pennsylvania/Maryland. Storm intensity is
   expected to increase later this afternoon into central/eastern
   Pennsylvania and adjacent areas of Maryland. Trends will continue to
   be monitored for a watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Cloud cover has continued to clear across West Virginia
   into western Pennsylvania as mid-level dry air overspreads the area.
   Though MLCAPE values remain below 300 J/kg, surface heating has
   brought temperatures in southwestern Pennsylvania into the upper 60s
   F. Low-level lapse rates are likely steepened enough to support a
   risk for damaging wind gusts given 50-60 kts of wind within the
   lowest 2 km on regional VAD winds.

   Into central Pennsylvania, more time will be require to destabilize
   as cloud cover has kept temperatures in the mid/upper 50s F.
   However, with the decreasing cloud cover expected, an increasing
   severe risk will probably occur by mid-afternoon. Southerly winds
   should advect increasing moisture into the area as well.

   Limited buoyancy and veered surface winds in western Pennsylvania
   will limit the tornado risk with early activity. Surface winds will
   remain more backed in central/eastern Pennsylvania along with
   greater 850 mb wind speeds. The greater tornado threat is likely to
   exist farther east and later this afternoon.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 03/31/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

  

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1114 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022

   Valid 311630Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
   OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND...AND NORTHERN
   VIRGINIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today 
   from parts of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic region and Hudson
   Valley.

   ...VA into NY...
   Broad and strong southwesterly flow aloft is present today across
   much of the eastern US, with a strong shortwave trough moving across
   the upper OH Valley.  Breaks in the clouds are resulting in pockets
   of heating across this area, which should yield at least marginal
   afternoon CAPE values.  Storms have begun to strengthen along a
   pre-frontal axis over western PA.  Model consensus shows multiple
   corridors of strengthening low-level winds through the day, which
   will help to enhance convergence and lead to more widespread
   intensifying thunderstorms by mid-afternoon.  These fast-moving
   storms will pose a risk of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. 
   Have added an ENH risk area for this threat.
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