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Feb 16-17th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm
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19 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Detroit Nws passing off winter storm watches off to the overnight. I agree that local stations around here downplaying but rightfully so. As I read into it more they did admit that amounts could be well underdone 

 It's hilarious every time they are bullish (rare), the storm ends up underwhelming.  Now watch this time they'll be conservative and we'll get over a foot.

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2 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

 It's hilarious every time they are bullish (rare), the storm ends up underwhelming.  Now watch this time they'll be conservative and we'll get over a foot.

I know right. I’m praying for little ice don’t want those winds mixing with even moderate accumulation 

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Just now, Stevo6899 said:

 It's hilarious every time they are bullish (rare), the storm ends up underwhelming.  Now watch this time they'll be conservative and we'll get over a foot.

 

Well the GFS has gone in that direction big time! 

Just now, Stevo6899 said:

Were reelin er in eh?

Yep. Me and Josh using the magnet powers. 

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41 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

21z RAP is wet and wild and has 0% chance of verifying with 3 inch of precip in Chicago. It is smoking what the GFS and NAM were smoking.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

That run is unrealistic even early on in the storm.  It already has several inches around Chicago by 12z Thursday.  

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4 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

I remember when Hoosier found the developmental RUC (old name of the RAP for you young kids) that ran out to 36 hours or something. Him and thundersnow12 posted that sh*t constantly in every storm. :lol: 

Hey, that did pretty well with GHD I lol, I still have those images saved somewhere. 

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52 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

Well the GFS has gone in that direction big time! 

Yep. Me and Josh using the magnet powers. 

We have actually had quite a few snow events this season that have overperformed, and most of the rest have performed as expected. Only the 1 big one was the one that really underperformed, and it had the most hype. This storm has a massive amount of uncertainty. Either way I don't see how it's not going to be a high impact event. You have frozen solid ground with snowcover that is going to be melting with heavy rain, then a transition to ice and snow and a major temp plummet to the single digits in the storms wake.

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7 minutes ago, michaelmantis said:

Damn, there are times these AFD's are just awesome. I share them with friends/family and they just don't get them. This one was almost as good as Ricky's. 

Even got the B word thrown out as one scenario.

One thing I'm wondering about is how they mention it being wet snow.  I wonder how wet it will actually be.  The relative warmth aloft will hurt ratios but I would think it would make it more of a dense snow but not necessarily wet.  A denser type of snow should still be capable of blowing around quite a bit given the expected winds.

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9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

We have actually had quite a few snow events this season that have overperformed, and most of the rest have performed as expected. Only the 1 big one was the one that really underperformed, and it had the most hype. This storm has a massive amount of uncertainty. Either way I don't see how it's not going to be a high impact event. You have frozen solid ground with snowcover that is going to be melting with heavy rain, then a transition to ice and snow and a major temp plummet to the single digits in the storms wake.

1-3 isnt considered an event imo. An event is 3+ and theres only been these last  2 worth getting excited about and the last one was a turd compared to what it couldve been. We'll see about this one. Rain to snow events are always tricky as far as accumulations.

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1 hour ago, Baum said:

so if the euro bumps north to join the gfs's south jog to form a consensus which model actually caved? Which is what happend in the last event.

 Maybe they both caved into each other. People in the heart of the final snow band refer to it as a "consensus". Those left outside the band refer to it as a "cave." The GFS/NAM amped NW solution offered a more significant impact storm and  seems to be more of a model fail since it failed in path and intensity.

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  • Chicago Storm changed the title to Feb 16-17th Winter Storm

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