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Feb 16-17th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm
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4 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Question for the pro’s why does the GEFS look so different then the op run 

 

image.png.cf6c9007dc6d248e439d7da65ba20890.png

Ensembles are leaving the door open for this to tick back north enough to bring south side and Chicago loop back in play

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Whelp euro is drastically different from gfs. It has pretty significant icing here behind cf Wed night but secondary wave of wintry precip with low riding up the cf is significantly more south. I remember euro did this with last storm system as well then slowly nudged north to match gfs. Not saying it will but gfs is overall being more consistent run to run and euro is showing pretty different outputs each model cycle. 

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11 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Whelp euro is drastically different from gfs. It has pretty significant icing here behind cf Wed night but secondary wave of wintry precip with low riding up the cf is significantly more south. I remember euro did this with last storm system as well then slowly nudged north to match gfs. Not saying it will but gfs is overall being more consistent run to run and euro is showing pretty different outputs each model cycle. 

Would like a real storm for once this year.  Tired of being nickle and dimed on the fringe of events missing south.  Two years of this nonsense.  Rather just have a rain storm at this point.

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7 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Would like a real storm for once this year.  Tired of being nickle and dimed on the fringe of events missing south.  Two years of this nonsense.  Rather just have a rain storm at this point.

Big differences aloft on euro. Northern stream trough digs much more south and is slower to depart which slows and shunts southern stream wave south. On gfs the northern stream trough initially digs south but then flattens and pushes east. This allows the southern stream piece to eject quicker and more north. It also took on a negative tilt which allowed a much stronger sfc low to develop ne. Euro has a much weaker sfc low south with a more strung out trough. 

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2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Big differences aloft on euro. Northern stream trough digs much more south and is slower to depart which slows and shunts southern stream wave south. On gfs the northern stream trough initially digs south but then flattens and pushes east. This allows the southern stream piece to eject quicker and more north. It also took on a negative tilt which allowed a much stronger sfc low to develop ne. Euro has a much weaker sfc low south with a more strung out trough. 

Yea.  The OP Euro doesn't phase the jets at all, while the GFS phases too late and too far south for my liking.  I really should stop obsessing over OP runs while the ensembles are still all over the place.  The parent wave is south of Alaska at this point.

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As noted earlier, very large spread still on the GEFS, with many members northwest of the operational and the mean. Compared to the 18z GEFS, solid cluster of member lows west/northwest of the mean Wednesday night into Thursday.

The 00z ECMWF (EPS) ensemble also definitely left the door open for the main wave and associated secondary low pressure to track farther northwest. Comparing to the 18z EPS, similarly to the 00z GEFS, the 00Z EPS has a solid clustering of member lows northwest of the ensemble mean Wednesday night into Thursday.

Along the lines of my post yesterday, a distinct majority of the GEFS and EPS members with 6"+ snow swaths are tied to the deeper solutions. And sure enough, the 06z GFS came in way deeper and farther northwest with the secondary low. Given the trend on the 00z suite and continued on the 06z GFS/GEFS, I wouldn't at all hang it up yet in eastern Iowa, NW IL, northern Chicago burbs and southern WI. Plenty of time to go on this one with multiple moving parts.



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Nothing says jaded snow enthusiasts like no posts on this thread for an hour when the NAM has run and looks like the 06z GFS at the end haha.

FWIW, the 06z ECMWF operational, while not quite headed toward a 06z GFS type solution if extrapolated out, was an improvement from the 00z run with respect to the Hudson Bay PV lobe being farther north and less suppressive. Also upper jet configuration in that run suggests coupled jet streak would be probable and increase chances of a deeper secondary surface low.

On the 06z EPS, noted a similar signal that the members with the 6"+ snow swaths were the deeper solutions. It makes sense, but it's also appearing that unlike GHD III, this event would be less likely to produce big amounts farther south if a farther southeast and weaker secondary low pans out.



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24 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Nothing says jaded snow enthusiasts like no posts on this thread for an hour when the NAM has run and looks like the 06z GFS at the end haha.

FWIW, the 06z ECMWF operational, while not quite headed toward a 06z GFS type solution if extrapolated out, was an improvement from the 00z run with respect to the Hudson Bay PV lobe being farther north and less suppressive. Also upper jet configuration in that run suggests coupled jet streak would be probable and increase chances of a deeper secondary surface low.

On the 06z EPS, noted a similar signal that the members with the 6"+ snow swaths were the deeper solutions. It makes sense, but it's also appearing that unlike GHD III, this event would be less likely to produce big amounts farther south if a farther southeast and weaker secondary low pans out.


 

Yeah people are apprehensive this time around. I know people are reading but will be more active in the coming days. After GHD III it caused some burnout. Back on topic, I do like the model runs in the last bit. I’d be fine with a 3 to 5 with 40+ mph wind gusts 

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32 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Nothing says jaded snow enthusiasts like no posts on this thread for an hour when the NAM has run and looks like the 06z GFS at the end haha.

FWIW, the 06z ECMWF operational, while not quite headed toward a 06z GFS type solution if extrapolated out, was an improvement from the 00z run with respect to the Hudson Bay PV lobe being farther north and less suppressive. Also upper jet configuration in that run suggests coupled jet streak would be probable and increase chances of a deeper secondary surface low.

On the 06z EPS, noted a similar signal that the members with the 6"+ snow swaths were the deeper solutions. It makes sense, but it's also appearing that unlike GHD III, this event would be less likely to produce big amounts farther south if a farther southeast and weaker secondary low pans out.


 

this has always been a slow crew fwiw on a sunday morning.:lol:

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7 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Yeah people are apprehensive this time around. I know people are reading but will be more active in the coming days. After GHD III it caused some burnout. Back on topic, I do like the model runs in the last bit. I’d be fine with a 3 to 5 with 40+ mph wind gusts 

apprehensive after a blanket 4-12" snowfall over a good part of MO.,IN,South Mich, Illinois, and Ohio? Now that screams "jaded."

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  • Chicago Storm changed the title to Feb 16-17th Winter Storm

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