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Feb 12/13 Event Quest for Blues to Envelop More Rather Than Less


North Balti Zen
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34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Good forecast. But not sure in this case how useful current satellite/radar/obs are.  There is no real synoptic feature we are tracking. No surface low of consequence.  I’m not sure how we use current anything (including models) to pin down a very localized meso scale band of precip associated with a jet streak.  I suppose it we really want to get deep in the weeds we could compare upper levels wind observations with guidance but I’m good.  Frankly without the nwp this is the kind of discreet thing that probably went totally un forecasted 50 years ago. Not that missing a very localized 1-3” event was some kind of catastrophic problem. Somehow we survived.  

Right.  We try now to find tune too much, using microscopes instead of binoculars.  Trying to pinpoint streaks is mostly useless. Is it 15 miles “wide” or 50.  I disagree in that for the rest of the way one can look at satellite. Wv, radar and compare in about 90 minute intervals of how things are progressing and forecast from that and not model depictions 

Do not  need a defined low /synoptic feature to be able to do that 

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13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

61/34 on Grounds at UVA.

Hope you enjoy this one -- it's my dream to be in a storm where I'm in the one (okay, two) county(ies) that has a WSW while all the others watch. Live out my dream for me!

Dude, I went to UVa for undergrad and my doctorate.  Someday we should meet for a beer at Basic City or Pro Re Nata or some place in Cville.

Never had a snowstorm that specifically targeted my county before, and I am 46 years old and I grew up in upstate NY.  Counting myself super lucky with this one (IF it verifies lol).

I will definitely post a few pics of my property and the river from my atv if it pans out.

Like Jebman says, I hope everyone gets absolutely demolished with heavy snow.

eta: I actually am feeling pressure to stay up all night and report live, but I am not sure if I am young enough to do that anymore lol

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Looks like the euro was another slight bump nw

Are these incremental bumps NW yielding more snow at this point?  Its not like there is a  cutoff with a bunch of moisture available just to the SE. Discounting the GFS which looks off its rocker, the disparity between models at this point is really specifically where the best lift ends up for the longest duration, before it wanes as the trough shifts east and the coastal gets going. Moisture is pretty limited, so it's all about maximizing it by being in the right place wrt to the upper jet streak/ localized vorticity max, and ofc cold enough temps. Mostly small scale stuff that there won't be complete agreement on, so probably won't know until its happening.

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Are these incremental bumps NW yielding more snow at this point?  Its not like there is a  cutoff with a bunch of moisture available just to the SE. Discounting the GFS which looks off its rocker, the disparity between models at this point is really specifically where the best lift ends up for the longest duration, before it wanes as the trough shifts east and the coastal gets going. Moisture is pretty limited, so it's all about maximizing it by being in the right place wrt to the upper jet streak/ localized vorticity max, and ofc cold enough temps. Mostly small scale stuff that there won't be complete agreement on, so probably won't know until its happening.

Every incremental shift matters when you started on the 0” precip line.

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