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Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2022


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7 minutes ago, SWineman said:

I've got thunder in Saginaw, half sleet/half raindrop pouring from the sky.

Edit: I'm concerned that the current mix might accrete faster than either of the p-types alone.

Getting thunder here now as well.

Radar suggests DFW will likely be the bullsye for ice accretion & sleet accumulation with this round.

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31 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

really started to get concerned for a power outage at this rate.

The saving grace so far is that we've primarily been getting sleet, which doesn't really accrete on power lines & branches like freezing rain does.

That could change with tomorrow's round though...

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Water vapor imagery shows the upper low sitting over SoCal pumping in a constant stream of moisture directly out of the EPAC ITCZ. We will stay wet with little to no break until the upper low ejects over us later this week. The surface cold also will not break until then so expect current temps to persist until Thu. The surface cold will temporarily be replaced with cold from above Thu which cold bring some snow. Warm up and dry out starts Friday.

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The Ice Storm Warning is truly a rare issuance in this region. This generally is not issued unless ice accretion totals are expected to be 1/2 inch or greater, which is severe icing. If forecast holds this, combined with this 1/2 inch sleet already on ground, is turning out to be the worst ice storm this century for the western part of the Metroplex. I doubt very seriously temperatures will move far enough above freezing to improve road conditions, especially in this area, until late Thursday or possibly into early Friday. This surpases the December 2013 and February 2003 events.

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51 minutes ago, DFWWeather said:

The Ice Storm Warning is truly a rare issuance in this region. This generally is not issued unless ice accretion totals are expected to be 1/2 inch or greater, which is severe icing. If forecast holds this, combined with this 1/2 inch sleet already on ground, is turning out to be the worst ice storm this century for the western part of the Metroplex. I doubt very seriously temperatures will move far enough above freezing to improve road conditions, especially in this area, until late Thursday or possibly into early Friday. This surpases the December 2013 and February 2003 events.

I'm actually a bit shocked they issued the warning at this point given the latest HRRR isn't that aggressive for tomorrow and the amount is *only* up to 0.25. IMO December 2013 was much worse. 

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15 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

I'm actually a bit shocked they issued the warning at this point given the latest HRRR isn't that aggressive for tomorrow and the amount is *only* up to 0.25. IMO December 2013 was much worse. 

I'm not sure the HRRR has been the model of choice through this event. I believe the NAM and Canadian (both its hi-res, operational Synoptic, and ensembles) have been outperforming nearly all of them. The concern here is the depth of the warm air aloft will deepen as the warm air advection process ramps up as the upper low approaches. This will almost gurantee the next round precip will be much less sleet and more freezing rain. 1/2 inch of freezing rain is much worse than sleet. Combine that on top of the sleet and it will be total ice skating rink with wet water on top of ice before it freezes. What a mess! At least with the cobblestone ice, you did have "some" traction. So, I am not surprised the warning was upgraded at all. The December 2013 was worse farther off to the northwest of the Metroplex due to its longevity in that region (what 5-6 days vs the 2 1/2 in the Metro?) and it was all sleet, with very little freezing rain. I probably should have worded it may potentially surpass the those two events if the forecast holds.

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2 hours ago, vwgrrc said:

I'm actually a bit shocked they issued the warning at this point given the latest HRRR isn't that aggressive for tomorrow and the amount is *only* up to 0.25. IMO December 2013 was much worse. 

What models have been struggling with (obviously besides surface temps) is the convective nature of the precipitation.

With these waves being so subtle, large scale forcing has been pretty weak. That said, there's just enough instability/moisture/covergence in the lower levels (below 700mb) in combination with the weak lift to generate intense but intermittent areas of precipitation.

Yes, worst case, such a setup can be catastrophic for narrow corridors that end up under the most persistent/stationary banding. However, it can also be a real feast or famine as far as how widespread the impacts and amounts are.

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Starting to feel there's a chance the outcome could be even worst than forecasted today. Most of the short range models tonight shows little to nothing for the state as of midnight. But in reality, West TX is already seeing FR or sleet at this point. Probably gonna be a real mess in DFW tomorrow.

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