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Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2022


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6 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Also I was too focus on Tuesday the entire time and just now realized 0z NAM has FR even on Thursday?? That's insane.

Yep, though I am still on the bandwagon of Thursday being more of a snow event. If that upper low stays closed than I am hopeful that we can end this mess with a couple inches of snow.

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We’re definitely getting a bit worried out here in the Permian Basin. Persistent fzdz prior to the incoming ZR on Tuesday will ice things up decently here with temps generally 27° or lower from tonight through Wednesday AM. RAP and other hi-res have us at a paltry 22° mid-afternoon on Tuesday. NBM is up around 0.25” on the FRAM for these parts by Thursday AM, and that’s with it running a solid 6-8° above current and previous conditions. 

Hopefully you guys further east don’t get slammed like guidance is saying. Nothing pointing to historic, but certainly no slouch in terms of general impact. 

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
558 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-302000-
/O.EXT.KFWD.WS.W.0001.230130T1200Z-230201T1200Z/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-
Navarro-Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-
Limestone-Leon-Milam-Robertson-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman,
Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur,
Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano,
McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper,
Sulphur Springs, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar,
Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman,
Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, Edgewood, Emory,
East Tawakoni, Point, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman,
Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose,
Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Athens,
Gun Barrel City, Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton, Hico,
Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Corsicana, Teague,
Fairfield, Wortham, Palestine, Lampasas, Copperas Cove,
Gatesville, Killeen, Temple, Fort Hood, Waco, Marlin, Mexia,
Groesbeck, Buffalo, Centerville, Jewett, Normangee, Oakwood,
Cameron, Rockdale, Hearne, Franklin, and Calvert
558 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation, primarily in the form of freezing
  rain and/or sleet is expected. Total ice or sleet
  accumulations between one tenth and one half of an inch are
  possible.

* WHERE...All of North Texas and western Central Texas.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Significant impacts to travel may begin as early as
  Monday afternoon and continue through at least Tuesday night.
  Elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses will likely
  be the first to become icy, slick, and hazardous as
  temperatures hover around or below freezing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, slow down and use extreme caution
particularly when approaching bridges and overpasses. Keep an
extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency.

The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at
drivetexas.org.

&&

$$
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Its bad out there this morning. Elevated surfaces are ice covered across much of the state. 

Freeze line from Austin to College Station to south of Tyler to Texarkana. This is significantly further south than even the cold models had.

SHV likely needs to add a tier of advisories another row of counties south of the warnings. 

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I stayed home today with the kids. Not driving into downtown Fort Worth today from Saginaw. The early release that happens is going to be a disaster. I busted rying to walk from my door to my car.

Report from the TCCD NW campus with water icing over quickly enough that if you stood there your shoes would try to stick to the sidewalk.

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4 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

Its bad out there this morning. Elevated surfaces are ice covered across much of the state. 

Freeze line from Austin to College Station to south of Tyler to Texarkana. This is significantly further south than even the cold models had.

SHV likely needs to add a tier of advisories another row of counties south of the warnings. 

true. but i wonder if the colder than forecasted temp will mean more sleet than FR for DFW, which is a better outcome.

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1 hour ago, vwgrrc said:

true. but i wonder if the colder than forecasted temp will mean more sleet than FR for DFW, which is a better outcome.

Per Twitter, heavier showers/t-storms W side of Metroplex are sleet.  I think the depth of the cold air in just a light rain/drizzle situation determines if it sleet or snow.  P-type seems to be one of the more difficult things to forecast.  I wonder if FWD would do a 18Z sounding for p-type.

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44 minutes ago, weatherextreme said:

Looks like the middle of DFW isn't getting much. It has been more West Dallas/Fort Worth/Denton) and some of the east locations.

Fwiw FWD thinks we get the bulk of our precip after midnight and throughout the day tomorrow. Getting some very light wintry mix now also

EDIT: Now getting proper lught snow, already accumulating on elevated surfaces

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1 hour ago, cheese007 said:

Fwiw FWD thinks we get the bulk of our precip after midnight and throughout the day tomorrow. Getting some very light wintry mix now also

EDIT: Now getting proper lught snow, already accumulating on elevated surfaces

Agree. Monday is supposed to be light. 18z RDPS is showing even more FR for the metro now. I'm not familiar with this model but that's concerning if other 18z come in similarly.

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24 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Agree. Monday is supposed to be light. 18z RDPS is showing even more FR for the metro now. I'm not familiar with this model but that's concerning if other 18z come in similarly.

Rdps has been my go to for many years for winter storms. Its the hi Res Canadian. 

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1 hour ago, vwgrrc said:

On the flip side, 0z HRRR seems lowered the amount of ice in Dfw by a lot. At least for tomorrow! I find it hard to understand why models are so struggling with this at close range.

We are dealing with ripples in the jet coming through Mexico. We have no upper air data for the models to initialize on down there. I would still bet on Pacific moisture producing though there be winner and losers as always. 

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00z model runs were depressing all around.

First of all, models are still completely clueless with respect to surface temps, by several degrees. All of DFW has fallen into the mid 20s as of 1am.

But more concerning, they've all trended stronger with the 3rd & final wave Wednesday/Thursday while holding temps at/below freezing. It's plausible that could be the most significant round of icing for DFW. It would also mean FWD's current temp forecast is too high and the Winter Storm Warning would need to be extended again.

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4 hours ago, Powerball said:

00z model runs were depressing all around.

First of all, models are still completely clueless with respect to surface temps, by several degrees. All of DFW has fallen into the mid 20s as of 1am.

But more concerning, they've all trended stronger with the 3rd & final wave Wednesday/Thursday while holding temps at/below freezing. It's plausible that could be the most significant round of icing for DFW. It would also mean FWD's current temp forecast is too high and the Winter Storm Warning would need to be extended again.

Guess what got extended until 6:00 AM Thursday?

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