Powerball Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 Tomorrow could be an interesting day. DFW is under a slight risk for severe weather and FWD has added the severe wording to the grids east of I-35E. That said, the higher severe probabilities us just east of here and the grids only have a 20-30% chance of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 6 hours ago, Powerball said: Tomorrow could be an interesting day. DFW is under a slight risk for severe weather and FWD has added the severe wording to the grids east of I-35E. That said, the higher severe probabilities us just east of here and the grids only have a 20-30% chance of precipitation. FWD has bumped up PoPs to 40-50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Latest SPC has all of the eastern half of the Metroplex under a 5% tornado risk, 15% wind risk and hatched 15% hail risk. We'll see... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 FWD has bumped evening PoPs up to 70-80% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Any chance SPC goes for an ENH upgrade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Any chance SPC goes for an ENH upgrade? Maybe, depending on how the radar looks this evening. Hi-Res models are now back to holding off intitiation until just east of DFW. *sigh* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Mesoscale Discussion 0253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Areas affected...Parts of north-central/northeast Texas and southeastern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 141937Z - 142100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two should develop between 21Z-23Z. Watch issuance is likely in the next couple hours. DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level trough moving eastward across the southern Plains, with an accompanying midlevel speed maximum moving through the base of the trough. Over the next couple hours, increasing forcing for ascent preceding the trough will overspread a destabilizing air mass across parts of north-central/northeast Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. Here, latest surface observations show southerly surface winds and dewpoints in the lower/middle 50s ahead of a surface trough/dryline feature. Visible satellite imagery shows increasingly agitated cumulus fields developing across the warm sector, where surface pressure falls are evident. Convection should initiate between 21Z-23Z along/ahead of the surface trough/dryline, and move eastward into the destabilizing air mass characterized by MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. As the trough continues eastward, deep-layer shear will gradually increase to 40-50 knots, with effective SRH of 150-200 m2/s2. Initial convection may remain somewhat discrete, and steepening midlevel lapse rates combined with the favorable deep-layer shear should support large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. With time, forcing for ascent will increase as a cold front approaches from the west, favoring upscale growth and a greater risk of wind damage and embedded tornadoes with eastward extent. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/14/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX... LAT...LON 31489514 31209567 30319702 30569749 31659741 32469734 33309725 33939664 34309574 34209466 33799443 33429424 32989416 32149414 31839425 31619463 31489514 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chreeyiss Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 2 hours ago, Powerball said: Maybe, depending on how the radar looks this evening. Hi-Res models are now back to holding off intitiation until just east of DFW. *sigh* True the HRRR is back east, but its soundings show >1500j/kg in an uncapped atmosphere along and east of 35 by 5pm. Not going to take much to get storms to initiate west of where it currently depicts. NAM, ARW, and ARW2 are closer to 35 with initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Chreeyiss said: True the HRRR is back east, but its soundings show >1500j/kg in an uncapped atmosphere along and east of 35 by 5pm. Not going to take much to get storms to initiate west of where it currently depicts. NAM, ARW, and ARW2 are closer to 35 with initiation. FWD has knocked PoPs back down to around 40-50%. That said, CU field is filling back in after a brief break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 CU's still looks flat and underwhelming. FWD opted instead for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, but only for the eastern half of the Metroplex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chreeyiss Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 First attempts at initiation look to be appearing south of Arlington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, Chreeyiss said: First attempts at initiation look to be appearing south of Arlington Yep. It's looking like it might be a miss here, yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chreeyiss Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 21 minutes ago, Powerball said: Yep. It's looking like it might be a miss here, yet again. Unless you live along or west of 35, you might luck out. Lots of storms firing in the metro now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Chreeyiss said: Unless you live along or west of 35, you might luck out. Lots of storms firing in the metro now Most of the activity north of I-30 is struggling, although the cell over Lewisville is really trying. Just got some thunder from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, Powerball said: Most of the activity north of I-30 is struggling, although the cell over Lewisville is really trying. Just got some thunder from it. S Denton Ct is firing up now. Seems a bit west then HRRR forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 I've been getting thundershowers on the west side of Fort Worth. There are other thundershowers (at the time of writing) as far west as Lipan, on what appears to be a frontal boundary along a Saint Jo-Decatur-Weatherford-Stephenville line. Given the lower dewpoints and high LCLs in that direction, I suspect these are high-based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chreeyiss Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Today has met my expectations here in Dallas proper. It’s hailed 3 times here in the last hour, though fairly small. Got some good bursts of rain and a couple nice SLCs to look at. Maybe more on the way judging by radar, though I imagine these latest storms have probably tapped most of the good conditions over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Congrats to those who did get in on some action. Other than a few raindrops and an occasional distant rumble of thunder, we've had zilch here. Something could still happen, but I suspect the storms in every which direction but here have worked over the atmosphere too much. 2022 starting off just like 2021! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Big line of storms with hail ranging from quarter to pingpong size hail heading east from DFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Severe Thunderstorm Warning near Ardmore, OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 https://twitter.com/TxStormChasers/status/1503512398547734529?t=s1Ka5HRLHZ2C46DJBd4qeg&s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Did finally get in on a back-end storm. Had a few dime-size hailstones mixed in with the rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 Got anothet shot at severe weather Thursday evening, although yet again, best chance will be just to the east of the Metroplex. The Marginal Risk area has been upgraded to a Slight Risk area, mainly for hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chreeyiss Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 Won’t sleep on tomorrow, but Monday is continuing to look like the main event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Chreeyiss said: Won’t sleep on tomorrow, but Monday is continuing to look like the main event. Lapse rates are looking pretty poor on Monday. Seems more like a heavy rain vs severe setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chreeyiss Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 6 hours ago, Powerball said: Lapse rates are looking pretty poor on Monday. Seems more like a heavy rain vs severe setup. True, I guess we will see. The shear profiles look very favorable across the eastern half of Texas, and the SPC notes this in their convective outlook as well. GFS does sometimes underestimate instability and lapse rates on these early season events, but I wouldn't be surprised the event busts up here for the reason you mentioned. CLL and south may end up being the bullseye where thermos are better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 A preliminary look at next Tuesday suggests it could be another good setup for severe weather, this time not only in Texas but also further north into OK. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 After a high of 86*F today, DFW could see its first 90*F+ day of the year tomorrow. The trees are exploding with leaves & buds too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 For DFW, it seems December alone was so extremely warm that it helped the entire 2021-2022 winter crack the top 10 warmest list (#10 specifically), even with January only around average and February well below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 10 hours ago, Powerball said: After a high of 86*F today, DFW could see its first 90*F+ day of the year tomorrow. The trees are exploding with leaves & buds too. Not that it's unusual but even a couple days ago I noticed that Dallas proper was definitely coming to life whereas Ft Worth and Denton were still well behind. Spring seemed a bit late out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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