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Feb 13-14 snowstorm/nor’easter potential


George001
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I have been watching this window on the models for a week now. The models showed the signal far out, but as we got closer they started burying the southern energy out west. However, the players on the field never left. Like the during the late January blizzard, we have a monster ridge out west with a deep trough in the east. The 12z eps doesn’t quite dig the energy enough to produce a big storm, but the following factors combined with continued favorable trends on the models tonight has me convinced there will be a big storm during the Feb 13-14th timeframe.

Pros and cons:

pros:

1. Arctic air, 540 line is as far south as the southeastern United States, and there is a strong high to the north. 

2. Ridge axis is centered over Washington, which is VERY far west, and argues for a more western low

3. Atlantic ridging

Cons: 

1. Lack of North Atlantic blocking

2. Timing of the energy isn’t great

I am convinced that the models are underestimating how much the northern energy will dig, and that the models will continue to trend more and more amplified. The stronger and farther west the northern energy digs, the more time the southern energy will have to get ahead of the northern energy, and the farther west the phase will happen. If the northern branch digs as much as I think it will, it will phase early enough that we will see a closed off strengthening upper low, which would slow the storm down and allow it to deepen rapidly. The track would also be farther west than what the models have right now, and would result in heavy snow and blizzard conditions in eastern mass. Despite the surface not reflecting it, models have trended more amplified with the western ridge, with a northern branch digging more and farther west. 

image.png

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The Euro appears to be a miss, like the other guidance. However, the Canadian ensembles have trended towards much more amplified northern energy, leading to a massive shift west with the lows as well as increasing the strength of the lows. It is now signaling snow in New England. Lets see what the eps says, I’d like to see continued improvement in the upper levels even if the surface doesn’t reflect it. This far out having the ensembles on board is a big deal.image.png.eb728df499487cb49c599c8dbafb4236.png

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19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The "oh, so close" crap does get old by February. I'm all for nicer weather at this point.

You and I usually agree though, one major snowstorm is fun but the 3-6"-er slush parade in March is pretty useless

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I will say that the large scale ridge-trough pattern is there for an east coast storm. However, there are two kickers in the flow mucking things up. The vort over St. Louis dropping in doesn't phase in time and the just off screen vort slamming into British Columbia shifts the whole pattern east.

 

image.png.754f76947fe36610577e0fe9552780b6.png

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18 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

You and I usually agree though, one major snowstorm is fun but the 3-6"-er slush parade in March is pretty useless

Yea, it depends on whether or not I am looking to stat pad, but as it looks right now, I couldn't care less....my snowfall numbers are going to bust and we aren't nearing any type of record, so I just assume rip the damn band aid off.

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Re Valentine's Day ( VDII ?)

Short version:  I see room for growth in the runs, ensuing.  At just about any time through about D4.5 ... this may emerge with more prominence in the runs.  If we get to D5 and that has not happen, pull the plug.

Long version/philosophy:  The EPS behavior over the far E. Pacific/near of the West Coast of mid latitudes is critical - I'm thinking other's must have cited this. I'm not expecting this to be any kind of unique insight.   Starting 00z, both it and the GEFs have a modest positive non-hydrostatic height anomaly stretched W-E of 140W/~45N  ... Rather abruptly, the next 24 to 48 hours sees that region flare a rather robust positive anomaly, helping to force an arced flow extending to 55 N and concomitantly, ...forcing the flow over ~ 110W/50N to tip into the NW trajectory.  This continues onward through D3...

That's when things get complicated/interesting...

Between D3 and 5, this above ridge progresses/biases its way to the 120W longitude by 120 hours.   D5/6 is when we would tend to see a constructive interference feedback on amplitude ... if one is going to exist or make use of this scaffolding behavior, carving S through the NP into the MV...etc... etc.   This is why D4 ~5 are critical windows.  If that has not begun to happen prior to that range ( 00z through Fri)... heh.

The numerical layout of the GEFs telecon is tepidly supportive .. very modest suggestion here:

image.png.63bf273e7d08a4c1f89e58492de737b9.png

That may be okay.... The blizzard recently was also led by this sort of flatter presentation of PNA disturbance.  Graphical reliance helps bridge the uncertainty as to whether anything at all would actually be there... heh.    I mean we should be doing that anyway - I admittedly have relied on just one or the other when one or the other's signal became overwhelming...blah blah.  Anyway, it is noted this above GEF -based ... it is not the EPS. The EPS curve may be more representing...

The 00z/08 mean of the EPS dailies also now closes off a modest low E of Hat on D7, which is a better performance/fix compared to 24 hours ago.  So a trend may be emerging... Given to the above aspects, there's room here to monitor.  That, and fact that this is still 7 days away, notwithstanding..   I mean, not allowing the erstwhile disenchanted rigor of the season cloud one's objectivity ... very difficult  I deserve a pat on the back LOL.   I gotta say... it's been tough.  Every system we threaded for, has worked out to be a legit system delivery large doses of disappointment - in general.

 

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  • ORH_wxman changed the title to Feb 13-14 snowstorm/nor’easter potential

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