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Feb 13-14 snowstorm/nor’easter potential

George001

By George001,
in New England

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George001

George001

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This storm looks like it’s coming back. I’m honestly surprised I thought it was dead like 2 days ago, and gave up on it. The radar looks really good and the models keep trending west. I’m thinking 6-10 with an iso foot in some areas. 6+ as far NW as central mass, with high snow ratios leading to higher totals than model snow maps have. This setup looks similar to the early Jan storm.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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20 minutes ago, George001 said:

This storm looks like it’s coming back. I’m honestly surprised I thought it was dead like 2 days ago, and gave up on it. The radar looks really good and the models keep trending west. I’m thinking 6-10 with an iso foot in some areas. 6+ as far NW as central mass, with high snow ratios leading to higher totals than model snow maps have. This setup looks similar to the early Jan storm.

I'm actually somewhat interested in this band on radar right now. Well aligned with 700 mb frontogenesis, which is right around the DGZ. 00z NAM had it pretty close to its current location (06z lost it :lol:). I think this may actually produce more of the surprise snow than the consolidating around the low pressure later.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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7 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm actually somewhat interested in this band on radar right now. Well aligned with 700 mb frontogenesis, which is right around the DGZ. 00z NAM had it pretty close to its current location (06z lost it :lol:). I think this may actually produce more of the surprise snow than the consolidating around the low pressure later.

I wouldn't call it, "This storm is coming back," with the ominous opening sentence tone, though - that's a bit of a Ralph Phillips take on matters LOL. 

This snow is not really tied directly into the storm mechanics itself - I mentioned that same exact aspect last night ... In some ways, it seems we have an ANA that is actually ANA-ing.  Ha...  or maybe if in the quasi sense. 

There's also a strong and getting stronger, 300 mb jet that's paralleling the EC. In fact by this evening.. it's reoriented in such a way that the strongest winds ( approaching 180 mph!) are leaving New England. I think that is helping blossom this stripe.  It was in erstwhile guidance and put some valid question into the mix as to whether more QPF should be striped/banded back west ...which seems to be doing well per rad and sfc obs.  The NAM dropping it at 06z is odd.  It failed already so whatever... but, these mechanical metrics were still on that particular run.  If we negate that run, the NAM seemed to be more correct with placement. 

It's hard to tell but later tonight the operational GFS appears to evolve a very weak NORLAN?  I see a weak IVT with a classic hook in the QPF. I also wonder if that may benefit from a brief window where the llv flow orientation brings OES enhancing into the convergence axis.   Interesting...   

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George001

George001

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6 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm actually somewhat interested in this band on radar right now. Well aligned with 700 mb frontogenesis, which is right around the DGZ. 00z NAM had it pretty close to its current location (06z lost it :lol:). I think this may actually produce more of the surprise snow than the consolidating around the low pressure later.

That fronto band has definitely delivered so far, got a couple inches already.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wouldn't call it, "This storm is coming back," with the ominous opening sentence tone, though - that's a bit of a Ralph Phillips take on matters LOL. 

This snow is not really tied directly into the storm mechanics itself - I mentioned that same exact aspect last night ... In some ways, it seems we have an ANA that is actually ANA-ing.  Ha...  or maybe if in the quasi sense. 

There's also a strong and getting stronger, 300 mb jet that's paralleling the EC. In fact by this evening.. it's reoriented in such a way that the strongest winds ( approaching 180 mph!) are leaving New England. I think that is helping blossom this stripe.  It was in erstwhile guidance and put some valid question into the mix as to whether more QPF should be striped/banded back west ...which seems to be doing well per rad and sfc obs.  The NAM dropping it at 06z is odd.  It failed already so whatever... but, these mechanical metrics were still on that particular run.  If we negate that run, the NAM seemed to be more correct with placement. 

It's hard to tell but later tonight the operational GFS appears to evolve a very weak NORLAN?  I see a weak IVT with a classic hook in the QPF. I also wonder if that may benefit from a brief window where the llv flow orientation brings OES enhancing into the convergence axis.   Interesting...   

Of course it came back there was virtually zero qpf from this 4 days ago. Written off, dry air you said. Plus it's a play on the day.

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