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Coastal cyclogenesis and minor to moderate impact Feb 8/ 8.5, primarily SE areas ...for now.


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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Really didn't need the dig but thanks. You average about the same as I have since 2000. Kevin's probably 68 to 70 since 2000. My totals for 18/19 19/20 20/21

40.2

25.2 

51

 

It's all in your head dude.

If you go by just since 2000, Ray prob averages over 70”…so his deficit would look even worse the last 4 years. He was using long term climo numbers. 

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16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Could be a nice little quick event here. We’ve been screwed more than Ray on the last few events.

He's got that Jack mentality. Seems that most of SNE is all in the same boat since 18 sans the epic blizzard in ENE this year. 

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

He's got that Jack mentality. Seems that most of SNE is all in the same boat since 18 says the epic blizzard in ENE this year. 

The numbers presented without context may not seem so bad, but it does seem like his area has gotten porked on the larger scale events. All you have to do is go back and look at the threads. In an overall large scale setup, he does seem to find himself in a relative min more often than not.

He might make some of it up on the margins, as far as smaller events or holding on to snow longer before rain etc etc, but the large scale point is real.

Minus last weekend, this also hasn’t been a banner half decade for most of eastern New England 

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If you go by just since 2000, Ray prob averages over 70”…so his deficit would look even worse the last 4 years. He was using long term climo numbers. 

Last 3 years using since 2000 average.  Perception is different than empirical data.

142/210 Ray 67%

126/ 195 me 64%

 

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5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The numbers presented without context may not seem so bad, but it does seem like his area has gotten porked on the larger scale events. All you have to do is go back and look at the threads. In an overall large scale setup, he does seem to find himself in a relative min more often than not.

He might make some of it up on the margins, as far as smaller events or holding on to snow longer before rain etc etc, but the large scale point is real.

Minus last weekend, this also hasn’t been a banner half decade for most of eastern New England 

He got smoked last Dec while south of the Pike got porked. Its all about the Jack. Little events are what make averages and that is what we are comparing. 

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t think it’s a direct CIPS analog but MLK 2010 was a really marginal airmass that hit the pike/495 belt pretty good with 5-10” of paste with mostly rain elsewhere south and east. 

MLK 2010 was just one more facet for the ugliest late winter I can remember.  We were progged for something like 4-7 as I headed out on the Flying Pond ice to see if any large and unruly bass were hungry.  I figured the clouds would protect my face from frying and a little snow would keep the hole from freezing and messing up my topwater traps.  Watched the clouds advance during the forenoon to cover about half the sky, then watched them slide back to where they were barely visible on the horizon.  And the month only got worse from there.

GYX was bearish for Tuesday on their morning AFD, though they did pump the PoP to 60% from the earlier 30.  Still, they were talking about 1-2 max.  Something changing?

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15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Last 3 years using since 2000 average.  Perception is different than empirical data.

142/210 Ray 67%

126/ 195 me 64%

 

Nitpicking, but can’t really use percentages since he has a different average than you. Gotta use standard dev. But anyways, you had an epic ratter but also a season near your average in 2018-2019. 
 

Don’t really want to derail this thread any further though. I agree with the larger point that Ray’s area isn’t egregiously unique in the past 4 years…maybe just somewhat. I’ll be western MA gives him a run too. 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sure, but haven't come within a dozen or so inches of climo snowfall.

Last winter my place wasn't within 3 dozen of climo, and prior to Jan 29 we were running a bit behind 20-21.  (Of course, 18-19 was AN, 19-20 was 95% of avg and both seasons had long snow cover due to early Novie snow that stayed.)   Now only 1.6" BN thanks to 22" in the past 8 days.  And now a possible out-of-nowhere event?

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3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Last winter my place wasn't within 3 dozen of climo, and prior to Jan 29 we were running a bit behind 20-21.  (Of course, 18-19 was AN, 19-20 was 95% of avg and both seasons had long snow cover due to early Novie snow that stayed.)   Now only 1.6" BN thanks to 22" in the past 8 days.  And now a possible out-of-nowhere event?

You guys are locked in for another 6 to 12. Nice 14 day run

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol shit I thought it was the 14th. Cancel that reference my first date is 15th to 18th but then again the 21st is looking good on GEFS

Ya it’s late this year. Well I’m here til the 18th, so maybe I’ll see it happen, if anything pans out.  lol. 

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Yeah, agreed on the Valentine (~) Day ... I cited that in the beginning of this thread; we've all been sort of eying that range.  blah blah.  It's showing up (hint) in the telecon spread. And seeing the 00z EPS with the +PNA pulsation on D9 ...probably sets the Euro operational up with a memo to go nuts on D9 and there we go... Notwithstanding that, it may in fact be a more prominent signal than this little guy in the foreground.

But the necessity in the here and now is more because, whether it parlays favorably or not the risk is still real - it's something fun to watch in the meantime.  'Sides, official offices are nodding to it. It's not being pulled out of nothing.

I admit ..it's not the prettiest of signals...  But it's better than no signal.

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