Coastal cyclogenesis and minor to moderate impact Feb 8/ 8.5, primarily SE areas ...for now.

[PhineasC]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You are sounding like me when Ginxy ribs me on being surprised.  You expect one thing, then leading into the event you start doubting it, then you get the original estimates and are like “wow, nice surprise!”

I'm learning the ropes on being a NNE poster for sure.

Next I will pretend to root for Taunton snowstorms.  

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Pretty much raining just SE of Franconia at 32F at Lincoln exit.

Drive and post safely 

[wxeyeNH]

33F  Mixed rain and snow   2.25"

[tamarack]

3.5" of 8:1 snow before changing to ZR about 5A, and then RA 3 hours later.  Mild enough (33-34) that the snow is beginning to fall from the fir trees.

[Typhoon Tip]

Post -mortem on this event:

I'm thrilled to see the CNE and some of the NE kingdom snowed over night ... that, combined with the quantitative totals of rain and/or snow overall, combined with the successful track of cyclogenesis as it curled on passed to the E, saves this effort from a total failure in my mind.  If grading, I'd give a C .. C-

But I'm sure those that did not receive any snow, while parking the temperature at 32 and decimals, and .75" of liquid, would go ahead and send it and me to the gallows. 

It occurs to me ... I did not exactly mention "snow" or snow totals when starting this thread.  Having said that, I would be dishonest if I attempted to weasel out of some of that culpability - there is guilt there...

The problem - I believe - comes down to an "anecdotal climatology" argument, one that I quite honestly did not remember going into this effort.   That being ... since about 15 or so years ago, I began to notice a warm verification tendency with mid range- modeled marginal scenarios.  Prior to that approximate threshold, verifying 'isothermal' 0C seemed almost dependable when leading synoptic metrics were observed: such as, 535 to 540 dm hydrostatic heights; cyclogenesis through an 850 mbs thermal layout in the 0 to +3 C.    The other day I referred to this as "marginal+" vs "marginal-"

The reason for that tendency switch?  It could be just improvements in modeling technology.  It could be related to climate change.  It could be dumb luck... Who knows... But I do know that when I composed this thread, I had marginal- in mind, and now in retrospect I feel that's a bit of a blunder to have completely dropped the ball on this above facet. 

[PhineasC]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Post -mortem on this event:

I'm thrilled to see the CNE and some of the NE kingdom snowed over night ... that, combined with the quantitative totals of rain and/or snow overall, combined with the successful track of cyclogenesis as it curled on passed to the E, saves this effort from a total failure in my mind.  If grading, I'd give a C .. C-

But I'm sure those that did not receive any snow, while parking the temperature at 32 and decimals, and .75" of liquid, would go ahead and send it and me to the gallows. 

It occurs to me ... I did not exactly mention "snow" or snow totals when starting this thread.  Having said that, I would be dishonest if I attempted to weasel out of some of that culpability - there is guilt there...

The problem - I believe - comes down to an "anecdotal climatology" argument, one that I quite honestly did not remember going into this effort.   That being ... since about 15 or so years ago, I began to notice a warm verification tendency with mid range- modeled marginal scenarios.  Prior to that approximate threshold, verifying 'isothermal' 0C seemed almost dependable when leading synoptic metrics were observed: such as, 535 to 540 dm hydrostatic heights; cyclogenesis through an 850 mbs thermal layout in the 0 to +3 C.    The other day I referred to this as "marginal+" vs "marginal-"

The reason for that tendency switch?  It could be just improvements in modeling technology.  It could be related to climate change.  It could be dumb luck... Who knows... But I do know that when I composed this thread, I had marginal- in mind, and now in retrospect I feel that's a bit of a blunder to have completely dropped the ball on this above facet. 

You remain very good luck here. 5" and still snowing.

[eekuasepinniW]

3.5" of brutally heavy snow.

Getting alternating bursts of snow and rain now.

[Chrisrotary12]

Melting nicely out there right now.

[powderfreak]

43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Drive and post safely 

It’s easy to do riding shotgun.

[powderfreak]

52 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I'm learning the ropes on being a NNE poster for sure.

Next I will pretend to root for Taunton snowstorms.  

Ha at some point you’ll be up north long enough to be ok with sharing snow and lose the southern anxiety.  You won’t care about seasonal forecasts or patterns.  Your kids will start listening to jam band music, growing out the pony-o.  Half of them will ask for teleboots for Christmas.  It’s coming.

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

You are sounding like me when Ginxy ribs me on being surprised.  You expect one thing, then leading into the event you start doubting it, then you get the original estimates and are like “wow, nice surprise!”

Lol I was thinking that.

[dryslot]

Phinns a nervous nellie.    

[das]

Snow showers took one look at New York and said, “no way, I’m not going there”. 

Eh, nevermind.  I can't get the longer loop from 5:30am to save as a .gif in RadarScope.  It showed the showers advancing from the ESE and then reversing course right at the border.

[klw]

23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha at some point you’ll be up north long enough to be ok with sharing snow and lose the southern anxiety.  You won’t care about seasonal forecasts or patterns.  Your kids will start listening to jam band music, growing out the pony-o.  Half of them will ask for teleboots for Christmas.  It’s coming.

 

Isn't the next stage that he buys a Subie with a good set of Hakkas, sets up a chicken coop that he quickly tires of, moves his webcam so it overlooks his snow depth pole, and gets a retriever?

[wxeyeNH]

18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha at some point you’ll be up north long enough to be ok with sharing snow and lose the southern anxiety.  You won’t care about seasonal forecasts or patterns.  Your kids will start listening to jam band music, growing out the pony-o.  Half of them will ask for teleboots for Christmas.  It’s coming.

 

When Phin first moved up here last year we didn't have any snow until late in the fall.  Growing up in Metro Baltimore I understood his anxiety.  This is a much more typical C/NNE winter.  Phin will still be having snowstorms 6 weeks from now.  You do loose the anxiety and don't even pay attention to the 1 to 3" or 2-4" events.

[PhineasC]

8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

When Phin first moved up here last year we didn't have any snow until late in the fall.  Growing up in Metro Baltimore I understood his anxiety.  This is a much more typical C/NNE winter.  Phin will still be having snowstorms 6 weeks from now.  You do loose the anxiety and don't even pay attention to the 1 to 3" or 2-4" events.

I do really well in these marginal events with a little east flow. I could see a few more of these even into April.

[wx2fish]

17 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I do really well in these marginal events with a little east flow. I could see a few more of these even into April.

Still ripping on the Pittsburg webcams, must be coming down pretty good still there

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Still ripping on the Pittsburg webcams, must be coming down pretty good still there

Been pulses of moderate all morning so far.

31 degrees so starting to get sloppier though.

[powderfreak]

22 minutes ago, klw said:

Isn't the next stage that he buys a Subie with a good set of Hakkas, sets up a chicken coop that he quickly tires of, moves his webcam so it overlooks his snow depth pole, and gets a retriever?

Then kids get to high school and start spending a lot of time in the “woods” and seem really concerned about soil pH and you’ve come full circle.

[powderfreak]

28 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I do really well in these marginal events with a little east flow. I could see a few more of these even into April.

I thought last night was southerly flow on 850/925 though?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I'm learning the ropes on being a NNE poster for sure.

Next I will pretend to root for Taunton snowstorms.  

Remember to also ignore Western Massachusetts because it doesn’t actually exist.

[PhineasC]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I thought last night was southerly flow on 850/925 though?

Maybe it was, I assumed it was east flow. My PWS is caked with snow, last reported E winds at midnight.

I don't do well on south flow at the surface, maybe at 850 it's fine.

[jculligan]

5.3" of snow here in Jackson with a settled depth of 33" OTG. Snow continues to fall but it's up to 34 and the roof avalanches have begun. Deep winter out there either way.

[PhineasC]

Closing in on 6" now. Snowing well, dropped back to 30 degrees.

[ORH_wxman]

26 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Maybe it was, I assumed it was east flow. My PWS is caked with snow, last reported E winds at midnight.

I don't do well on south flow at the surface, maybe at 850 it's fine.

925 looks like it had a decent easterly component to it last night....here's the 03z and 06z plots:

 

 

[tamarack]

RA- and dz since about 8 AM.  Had to shovel the plow pile so the mail can get to the box.     3.5" has settled to 2-2.5 and where the plow scraped it all off the base is very slick, so I plan to just pack things down with the pickup.  We'll need another cord for late March onward, so I need to snowblow a landing pad, though we won't order for another couple weeks.  I've found that green wood is nicely dried by ~3 days stacked on the hearth about 12" from the stove - 120°+ dry air works just like the dry kilns at the sawmills.  Also, our recent loads have had a good proportion of white ash.  "Ash wood green or ash wood dry, a king shall warm his slippers by."

[HoarfrostHubb]

Roads were a mess in N ORH county.  A few school districts wisely had 2 hour delays.  The 3 in my household did not and it was an adventure on the roads and in parking lots.  

This storm wasn't great but not awful as far as pack destruction.  That will commence the next few days

[PhineasC]

42 minutes ago, tamarack said:

RA- and dz since about 8 AM.  Had to shovel the plow pile so the mail can get to the box.     3.5" has settled to 2-2.5 and where the plow scraped it all off the base is very slick, so I plan to just pack things down with the pickup.  We'll need another cord for late March onward, so I need to snowblow a landing pad, though we won't order for another couple weeks.  I've found that green wood is nicely dried by ~3 days stacked on the hearth about 12" from the stove - 120°+ dry air works just like the dry kilns at the sawmills.  Also, our recent loads have had a good proportion of white ash.  "Ash wood green or ash wood dry, a king shall warm his slippers by."

Been burning almost exclusively white ash here. 

[PhineasC]

32 with some huge blobs as this winds down. Not really accumulating as temps rise and the sun increases. Nice little event. Beats ice for sure. 

[Ginx snewx]

17 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

32 with some huge blobs as this winds down. Not really accumulating as temps rise and the sun increases. Nice little event. Beats ice for sure. 

SR still getting the goods. Up to 8 now