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Feb 2-4th Snowstorm- Observation Thread


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8 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Looks like a foot in walworth. Was hoping for more. Looks like areas near Lake did get more. Reports are spotty but seeing 11to 13 inch from Greece to Marion 

The mesos (HRRR, FV3, and 3k NAM) seem to think we've got another 3-8" to go along the South Shore over the next 24hrs. I used Kuchera as the ratios are certainly above 10:1.

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2 hours ago, sferic said:

Approx 8 inches in Cicero

 

Hope we can make it to 10 inches by day's end with the lighter snows

Real iffy to get to 10" we'd need another 2-2-2.5" to get there, generally. This 3rd wave looks weakish, maybe an inch.  No idea if any meaningful LES will arise later to "Top off the tank" so to speak.  Always possible here.

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1 minute ago, CNY_WX said:

Across northern Onondaga County snowfall amounts on CoCoRaHS were remarkably uniform between 7 and 8 inches with ratios just over 10:1. 

@Syrmax was right on with his call. Per usual, heaviest snows skipped over us with Western NY and then Oneida County and up through the ADKs getting more. Some day I will learn to accept the model showing the LEAST amount of snowfall during synoptic snowfall as closest to fact. The winds weren't even from the NE, so I don't think it would be downsloping from the Tug. My observation was it was quite windy, which often seems to happen as well...and shredded/sheared snowflakes.

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12 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Across northern Onondaga County snowfall amounts on CoCoRaHS were remarkably uniform between 7 and 8 inches with ratios just over 10:1. 

Agree, was just looking at that. From SYR, Oswego area to ROC and BUF looks like 7-11" fell.  A little on the lower end of models in general but not far off.  BGM to ALB never got into the 5"+ realm that GFS was putting out.  Overall models did well. The areas in CNY that did best were a bit south of here and had some elevation, again, as was generally depicted in models.  The iffy dendrite size was what I was concerned about and it was a factor here, along with less qpf than modeled (SYZ was generally 1.1-1.4" and we got about about 0.82" IMBY including the rain up front).

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3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

So just around 10-12” in Rochester. A little less than I thought but a decent hit. Good forecast by NWS as usual. NAM 3k 10:1 has been pretty good IMO

I measured right around 11” and COCORAHS had 10.2” in Skaneateles as of 7AM - so close. Could see a couple more to make it close to an even foot. Great storm and fun as heck to track with everyone. 

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4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

So just around 10-12” in Rochester. A little less than I thought but a decent hit. Good forecast by NWS as usual. NAM 3k 10:1 has been pretty good IMO

It's still going. Meso have 3-8" more in the next 24hr. Still moisture to come in from the SW:

image.png.bcbe36ee9de8855efd9a0dfcf5007c33.png

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8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

@Syrmax was right on with his call. Per usual, heaviest snows skipped over us with Western NY and then Oneida County and up through the ADKs getting more. Some day I will learn to accept the model showing the LEAST amount of snowfall during synoptic snowfall as closest to fact. The winds weren't even from the NE, so I don't think it would be downsloping from the Tug. My observation was it was quite windy, which often seems to happen as well...and shredded/sheared snowflakes.

Could be but i dont think wind was all that high. That was more of a concern for the recent Nor'easter in SNE with winds ripping.  I think the real issue was qpf a touch overmodeled and UVV wasn't impressive...which isn't surprising as this was an overruning or anafrontal system.  There wasn't a strong slp or ULL and dynamics were comparatively weak. Hence, snow growth was not impressive. 

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