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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The CAPE Verde storm does look better at h5 on HH Gfs 

Ninjd by Wig

The northern stream still comes down and crushes everything including our dreams lol.

That northern stream piece needs to change If we have any hope of something gaining latitude. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The northern stream still comes down and crushes everything including our dreams lol.

That northern stream piece needs to change If we have any hope of something gaining latitude. 

 

 

Yep. Kinda frustrating to see the same thing ruin us all winter...Now I know I ain't wrong when I say that that IS a Nina thing! C'mon, lol

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yep. Kinda frustrating to see the same thing ruin us all winter...Now I know I ain't wrong when I say that that IS a Nina thing! C'mon, lol

What's really frustrating is when we watch areas north of us get crushed on Thursday/Friday and then watch the wave get crushed south of us on Sunday.

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17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The CAPE Verde storm does look better at h5 on HH Gfs 

Ninjd by Wig

That interaction needs to take place a bit further west like the Euro, which was pretty close to something bigger. Ridge axis a tad too far east on the GFS. Overall a pretty radical set up with the amped up look. Nice potential.

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8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

What's really frustrating is when we watch areas north of us get crushed on Thursday/Friday and then watch the wave get crushed south of us on Sunday.

Although to be fair to them areas north/northwest have been skunked too...lol I thought post PD they'd get to make up some ground with systems like that one! But yeah...I was hoping we'd get less squashyness as wavelengths got shorter. I mean we still could...we shall see.

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10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That interaction needs to take place a bit further west like the Euro, which was pretty close to something bigger. Ridge axis a tad too far east on the GFS. Overall a pretty radical set up with the amped up look. Nice potential.

Ridge axis just too far displaced to the East has been a recurring theme with many storms this winter. 

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12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ah okay. So that block would...push the interaction further west so it happens sooner? (Now see, this is where a video with a visual would help so novices can see exactly how things interact)

Or there wouldn't be any northern sw at all pressing down over the top

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23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Because it couldn't get there...because of the block?

A couple things- an atmospheric block literally blocks the flow- slows it down and kinks it, giving storms more of an opportunity to track underneath and up the coast instead of progressing off to the east. When we get a classic block in the NA, it is a west based -NAO with anomalously high heights across Davis Strait/Baffin, and that is usually accompanied by a quasi stationary vortex (50-50 low) off of the Canadian Maritimes. So we have a low to our NE and we end up with HP to our N/NW (no GL low!) which is exactly what we want to keep cold air in place as storms approach from the SW. In the current pattern those HP areas tend to slide off the coast and turn the flow more easterly off the Atlantic, and getting a coastal low to track in the right spot for snow is more of a thread the needle deal. As we have seen this winter when we do have a cold trough in place over the east, the tendency is for storms to form further off shore.

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