Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
 Share

Recommended Posts

Snippet from Mount Holly on the late week event. Sounds reasonable to me.

Surface high pressure is expected to nose into our area from the northwest on north on Thursday. However, our next weather system should already be approaching from the southwest on Thursday. Low pressure is forecast to be developing in the lower Mississippi River Valley and the Tennessee River on Thursday. The circulation around the high to our north and the low well to our southwest should result in a developing easterly flow in our region on Thursday. We should see cloudy conditions at that time along with an increasing chance of precipitation. With some cold air in place, a light wintry mix is possible, mainly in eastern Pennsylvania, and in northern and central New Jersey, with light rain in areas to the south. The low is forecast to pass through or near our region on Friday morning as it continues to move northeastward and strengthen. Since the exact track of the low remains uncertain at this point, so does the precipitation type forecast. For now, we will paint it as a wintry mix to the northwest of the Interstate 95 Corridor for Thursday night into Friday, and mainly rain to the southeast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The biggest change I've seen the past couple days for the Thursday/ Friday storm is the Euro has trended much less amped with slp . Hopefully that continues and a Gfs type solution is close to reality.  Many have punted because they think it's not going to be any or all snow and that's ok but I'm definitely excited to track this mixed potential. Its winter :snowing:

If I could get some front end snow then a sleet-fest I might be more interested. Outside of the GFS, the other guidance is not suggestive of that.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I am right about at 20" and playing with house money here. I can afford to be a winter precip snob. Give me 3-6 of cold powder or a 10" paste bomb. B)

Much better shape than me. 12" on the season. Average is about 28

Gonna be a dud of a winter for my area unless we get something more significant in the next 4 weeks.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Snippet from Mount Holly on the late week event. Sounds reasonable to me.

Surface high pressure is expected to nose into our area from the northwest on north on Thursday. However, our next weather system should already be approaching from the southwest on Thursday. Low pressure is forecast to be developing in the lower Mississippi River Valley and the Tennessee River on Thursday. The circulation around the high to our north and the low well to our southwest should result in a developing easterly flow in our region on Thursday. We should see cloudy conditions at that time along with an increasing chance of precipitation. With some cold air in place, a light wintry mix is possible, mainly in eastern Pennsylvania, and in northern and central New Jersey, with light rain in areas to the south. The low is forecast to pass through or near our region on Friday morning as it continues to move northeastward and strengthen. Since the exact track of the low remains uncertain at this point, so does the precipitation type forecast. For now, we will paint it as a wintry mix to the northwest of the Interstate 95 Corridor for Thursday night into Friday, and mainly rain to the southeast.

Translation “no we don’t believe the gfs” 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs seems warmer. Always go with least winter robust model solution

 

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

We needed 100 mile south shift and it shifted north 75 miles

 

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs sucks. This winter sucks. Every trend is the exact opposite of what we need.

God's sake man! Your posts are about the most childish and most devoid of any useful content in here, I swear! 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

All 3 globals are depicting pretty extreme amplification of the western ridge next weekend, causing the TPV to shed a lobe that produces a digging trough. Both the CMC and GFS literally drop the hammer on top of the southern wave, while the timing and orientation of the trough on the EURO allows (positive) interaction with the wave further west, thus not crushing it to oblivion. Long way to go before we know how this unfolds.

1646006400-1lFTVnzZ7nY.png

1645963200-gP8Z6E0qHzY.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...