February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Pretty interesting stuff showing on ens means and even fantasy ops.  Not snowstorms but the height pattern. Major confluence signal. I'm not sure if that's even the right word here. Instead of a bowl, ens are showing compressed flow over a fairly large part of the conus. It's another way to get a nice event and it doesn't even need big synoptics. 

I'm not implying a heater is on the way or anything too weenie. Just that I can easily envision what a path to victory looks like with the general ideas being tossed around now. Late feb/early Mar upglide/overrunners are typically MUCH juicier than Jan-early Feb. We'll see how it goes but if things go down the advertised path, it's a different pattern than we've seen all winter and I like it a lot more than compact steep amplified hills. 

Agreed. The general look on the means at h5 is conducive to cold pressing and a wave or 2 tracking along the boundary. Not complicated. Early March is probably the first chance, even though the GFS op teased late next week. Probably too soon. GEFS still suggestive of a cutter. Might be a good thing for a few days later.

[SnowenOutThere]

CMC has a sort of a similar look to the GFS at the end of it's run

[WxUSAF]

This says a lot about where the ensembles have been moving.  Flatter/less SE ridge and stronger -EPO ridge.  Both imply more cold pressing toward us.

[aldie 22]

But DT said early Spring

[North Balti Zen]

3 hours ago, baltosquid said:

ONE YEAR AGO: The "Spring Snowstorm of 2018" (wmar2news.com) The more I'm researching it the more conflicting info I see. Some places report warning criteria, others not. Guess it varied backyard to backyard. My backyard probably didn't actually break warning criteria based on these totals, though other parts of the city did. Which would mean I haven't seen a warning snowfall since moving to Baltimore a month before that storm, and Baltimore hasn't gotten a flush verified warning criteria snowfall since 2016 I think.

that comports with my obs from Balt City. Balt City hasn't had verifiable warning criteria snow since the January 2016 event (unless 1/3 got there this year, but I wasn't living in the city then. Downtown definitely did not verify warning level on 1/3). 

[baltosquid]

22 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

that comports with my obs from Balt City. Balt City hasn't had verifiable warning criteria snow since the January 2016 event (unless 1/3 got there this year, but I wasn't living in the city then. Downtown definitely did not verify warning level on 1/3). 

It did not get there in Canton, was around 3-4 inches. Areas further south still within the city borders potentially could have eked it out but I don't think the gradient was steep enough. Same deal for the end of week storm.

[SnowenOutThere]

Euro, CMC and GFS all show a similar type setup at hour 240 that could lead to a winter storm. According to weenie rule number 3 section 2A "The big ones are locked in early", this means that we are getting hammered with 10 plus inches of snow in 10 days.

[Paleocene]

Indeed, it's not over til it's over, even inside the beltway. Took this near Hyattsville on 3/21/18 according to google photos. About 3" OTG

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

You’d probably be hard pressed to find a winter that was over on Feb 15, even in the lowlands. There’s a reason for that. 

[brooklynwx99]

this is a really nice look. cold and active as the -EPO forces the boundary S

split flow evident too with the STJ in the picture

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is a really nice look. cold and active as the -EPO forces the boundary S

split flow evident too with the STJ in the picture

 

TPV placement is interesting and one of the reasons I'm interested in general. Pretty big +NAO but the tpv squishes the flow and crushes heights off the martimes. Pretty jacked up way to get blocking but for our purposes, it is blocking and would force storm track much more laterally than steep troughs and WARs. You guys up north don't have to sweat that stuff as much. We're always right on the edge of development here when things turn the corner and head north. I'm tired AF of that. Lol. Squish the flow to our NE and we can do pretty well with west or SW approach trajectory. Much bigger precip shields are possible too. God I'm sick of chasing little magic marker stripes on the cold side of storms too.... gah 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Think the MJO can swing around to phase 8 late March?

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, osfan24 said:

It counts way less, at least in my mind.

Ok but then factor in the fact your avg snow on blacktop is likely only 60% of your actual avg into you’re expectations. 

5 hours ago, CAPE said:

That's hard to believe given the number of 'plowed events' I have had here in that span. I get the UHI there but still. That said, I think his area has been pretty unlucky lately- probably completely missed several good events I had here and got fringed/missed by others that were good further inland.

He has been in the same screw zone as Maestro and other parts of northeast Md.  And I’m very familiar with his location, he is in a horrible local screw zone within the larger screw zone.  

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Are you on the northern end of Parrs Ridge? I saw you mentioned you live on a Ridge near PA border? On on the top of the Southern End 7 miles north of 70.

Yes, the specific ridge I’m on is Dug Hill. I’m at about 1050 ft just north of Manchester and south of the PA line. I’m about a mile from the highest point on Parrs Ridge and the highest point in MD east of the Appalachian Trail. 

[brooklynwx99]

50 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

TPV placement is interesting and one of the reasons I'm interested in general. Pretty big +NAO but the tpv squishes the flow and crushes heights off the martimes. Pretty jacked up way to get blocking but for our purposes, it is blocking and would force storm track much more laterally than steep troughs and WARs. You guys up north don't have to sweat that stuff as much. We're always right on the edge of development here when things turn the corner and head north. I'm tired AF of that. Lol. Squish the flow to our NE and we can do pretty well with west or SW approach trajectory. Much bigger precip shields are possible too. God I'm sick of chasing little magic marker stripes on the cold side of storms too.... gah 

yeah, the NAO is so positive that the TPV kinda acts as a pseudo-50/50 and helps provide confluent flow in SE Canada. it's weird, but that same kind of pattern was able to produce Marches 2014/15, which were snowy for the entire E US. lots of cold overrunning snows in those months

[BristowWx]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, the NAO is so positive that the TPV kinda acts as a pseudo-50/50 and helps provide confluent flow in SE Canada. it's weird, but that same kind of pattern was able to produce Marches 2014/15, which were snowy for the entire E US. lots of cold overrunning snows in those months

220 221 whatever it takes

[T. August]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok but then factor in the fact your avg snow on blacktop is likely only 60% of your actual avg into you’re expectations. 

He has been in the same screw zone as Maestro and other parts of northeast Md.  And I’m very familiar with his location, he is in a horrible local screw zone within the larger screw zone.  

Largest storm since 2016: 5.7” in Feb of ‘19. It’s been difficult lol.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

The way  this day 7 -8 timeframe has been trending colder and colder to the north we might start  seeing ops depicting some frozen in the next couple days for this timeframe. 

 

 

Need some more big trends. 

 

Realistically I think the next 8-10 days are toast. The very end of the month is where the pattern looks to become manageable. Always subject to change ofc, but I would bet it's more likely to be delayed if anything.

[Weather Will]

WB 12 EPS.   About 9 would be acceptable to most for around March 1.  Again, hoping something definitive to track may appear by the end of next work week.

[aldie 22]

My trip next week still looking tasty

[Maestrobjwa]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok but then factor in the fact your avg snow on blacktop is likely only 60% of your actual avg into you’re expectations. 

He has been in the same screw zone as Maestro and other parts of northeast Md.  And I’m very familiar with his location, he is in a horrible local screw zone within the larger screw zone.  

Now I'm confused...I had assumed what goes in the official record is just what's measured on paved surfaces! Not so? I thought that "white rain" events were measured as "slushy accumulations" of an inch, lol

 

P.S. I've always viewed Baltimore as a slight screw zone...but after watching the last 6 years, sweet mercy above! But oddly enough, a bulk of the screw overs during this stretch have been more from being on the edge of precip more so than elevation (though obviously we can have UHI issues at times) But lately we've been too far north for sliders, too far east for WAA, too far west for a piece of a Miller B...ouch! That's why some of us have been a bit grouchier, lol

[nw baltimore wx]

37 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now I'm confused...I had assumed what goes in the official record is just what's measured on paved surfaces! Not so? I thought that "white rain" events were measured as "slushy accumulations" of an inch, lol

 

P.S. I've always viewed Baltimore as a slight screw zone...but after watching the last 6 years, sweet mercy above! But oddly enough, a bulk of the screw overs during this stretch have been more from being on the edge of precip more so than elevation (though obviously we can have UHI issues at times) But lately we've been too far north for sliders, too far east for WAA, too far west for a piece of a Miller B...ouch! That's why some of us have been a bit grouchier, lol

You’re always confused.

https://www.weather.gov/dvn/snowmeasure

[Kmlwx]

46 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now I'm confused...I had assumed what goes in the official record is just what's measured on paved surfaces! Not so? I thought that "white rain" events were measured as "slushy accumulations" of an inch, lol

 

P.S. I've always viewed Baltimore as a slight screw zone...but after watching the last 6 years, sweet mercy above! But oddly enough, a bulk of the screw overs during this stretch have been more from being on the edge of precip more so than elevation (though obviously we can have UHI issues at times) But lately we've been too far north for sliders, too far east for WAA, too far west for a piece of a Miller B...ouch! That's why some of us have been a bit grouchier, lol

Measuring snow on PAVED surfaces is about as wrong as it gets. Paved surfaces retain heat. I don't think I've ever seen snowfall qualified in an official measurement as "slushy" or any other descriptor.

[Maestrobjwa]

31 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

You’re always confused.

https://www.weather.gov/dvn/snowmeasure

The heck, dude? Smh Thanks for the info, but the rest was totally unnecessary

[Maestrobjwa]

27 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Measuring snow on PAVED surfaces is about as wrong as it gets. Paved surfaces retain heat. I don't think I've ever seen snowfall qualified in an official measurement as "slushy" or any other descriptor.

Understood. I genuinely did not know--will remember that for next time. I think "a slushy accumulation of an inch" may have just been a weather channel thing I'd hear

[Kmlwx]

28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Understood. I genuinely did not know--will remember that for next time. I think "a slushy accumulation of an inch" may have just been a weather channel thing I'd hear

I think local media uses it with a decent amount of regularity as well. Maybe in NWS discussions as well. Though not in the zones. 

[Maestrobjwa]

14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I think local media uses it with a decent amount of regularity as well. Maybe in NWS discussions as well. Though not in the zones. 

Ahh okay that would explain it! That language actually does make it confusing cause it's like...what's a "slushy" inch even look like? Lol But I guess they do need to specify whether it would be on paved surfaces or not for road conditions.

[StormchaserChuck!]

I had a -PNA signal in March. The same thing was November, where it was based on SSTs, and PDO stuff, roll-forward (-PNA), we know that Nov turned out like this^, but then December blasted -PNA, maybe we'll see that -PNA again in April?

[CAPE]

6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I honestly have no idea what some of y'all's problem is, smh I'm tryin' to get better on here, yet here come some JERKS after me anyway...the last two times completely unprovoked. Something as simple as proper snow measurement...I'm sorry I asked. I get attacked and then get told to "calm down". Nah this is me defending myself. I wouldn't be so "exhausting" if folks weren't being jerks.

No one is attacking you. The manner in which you preface your posts often leaves you open to being poked at a bit though.

Thicker skin.

[CAPE]

After the storm mid next week likely tracks to our NW, seeing hints on the means of a west to east tracking wave along the boundary with colder air in place next Friday-Sat (25th-26th). There are a handful of members on the 0z EPS and GEFS with frozen for that period, while the op runs have another storm tracking to our NW towards next weekend. This is probably the period to watch for 'better trends', and it may just evolve into more of a threat for a couple days later.