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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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38 minutes ago, AdamHLG said:

I can faintly hear something but it’s not quite clear. I think I can make it out but may need another week to actually hear it. I think “sun angel” maybe? “Sun … something”. But it is getting louder every day.


.

I'm going to go cook my wagyu on the front sidewalk this afternoon.  

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6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Eh, PD weekend period not lookin' so good...Looks like the never-ending parade of NS vorts scour out any cold the big cutter leaves behind.

Pretty good broad look analysis identifying a common problem and why it's a problem.  Anytime shortwaves are zipping north of us, there is a period of return flow sucking warm mid level air up from the south. Even with insitu cold underneath and overhead, it's an efficient airmass rotter and not something to ever be ignored at our latitude. North of us can get plenty of snow with return flow stuff. We usually get rain. 

 

Eta: Models can't resolve this stuff far in advance though. There have been countless times in the past where those NS vorts magically appear and disappear in the mid range. With a NS dominant pattern you always need to be looking at those when it counts 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Pretty good broad look analysis identifying a common problem and why it's a problem.  Anytime shortwaves are zipping north of us, there is a period of return flow sucking warm mid level air up from the south. Even with insitu cold underneath and overhead, it's an efficient airmass router and not something to ever be ignored at our latitude. North of us can get plenty of snow with return flow stuff. We usually get rain. 

While we're at it, could ya explain the whole cutter turning 50/50 low thing? I never have quite understood how that worked...(although I'm guessing a bunch of those lows to the north is one way it DOESN'T work...lol)

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17 minutes ago, yoda said:

Too bad no CAPE... that's a decent sounding at 132 on the 12z GFS 

LWX alluded to that in their disco and seemed to be saying they think the CAPE is underdone. They don't say why, though.

ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE  
NEARLY 80 KNOTS OF WINDS AT 850 WHICH SUGGEST THAT WE WILL HAVE  
SHEAR WELL OVER 60 KNOTS AS THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE   
REGION. ALTHOUGH CAPE AT THIS RANGE IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY  
LOW, I SUSPECT THE CAPE IS BEING UNDERDONE. IF WE ARE ABLE TO   
GET EVEN A FEW HUNDREDS OF CAPE COMBINING WITH 60+ KNOTS OF   
SHEAR, THE REGION COULD SEE A DECENT SVR THREAT.
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10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

While we're at it, could ya explain the whole cutter turning 50/50 low thing? I never have quite understood how that worked...(although I'm guessing a bunch of those lows to the north is one way it DOESN'T work...lol)

Any strong cutter with the correct track will pass through the 50/50 region. It's a climo thing. 50/50s happen all the time but are usually transient meaning they are just passing by the sweet spot. When timing is linked up with something upstream, a 50/50 goes from completely unnoticed to the most important thing in Ji's life. 

We don't just need 50/50s. We need them linked up with other stuff. So basically, in a progressive pattern, you need 2 swift moving targets to be in the proper place at the same time. Tall order and often why they don't work. It's not bad luck. It's statistical probability. 

Blocking will lock at 50/50 in place. We still need 2 things to link up but only one is moving in that scenario. Far better odds and why we drool over that stuff 

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