CAPE Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 13 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The GFS has been pretty consistent with this type of look in the longer range. Problem is the -NAO is transitional and the GFS kicks it shortly after that. We have had and the GFS is keeping a decent PAC ridge in the long range. If we could just get the NAO to cooperate for a bit in February it would be game on. That is really just a transient ridge shifting through the NAO space in response to the TPV deepening and digging southward. Might help some if we timed a storm perfectly with its presence there, but the TPV is going to rotate up into that location and replace it just beyond this timeframe. Not sure a useful(persistent) -NAO is in the cards this winter, but it is difficult for guidance to pick up on it at range, so hard to know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I hope we get a crippling HECS that causes major disruptions to infrastructure and every day life You’re not my friend anymore. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: You’re not my friend anymore. You will be like Marion Barry was when he went to the Super Bowl. Watching from afar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, H2O said: You will be like Marion Barry was when he went to the Super Bowl. Watching from afar Yeah, but he didn’t collapse on his hotel room floor, crying and inconsolable that he was missing a snowstorm. So no. No I won’t be like Marion Barry if I miss a HECS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: That is really just a transient ridge shifting through the NAO space in response to the TPV deepening and digging southward. Might help some if we timed a storm perfectly with its presence there, but the TPV is going to rotate up into that location and replace it just beyond this timeframe. Not sure a useful(persistent) -NAO is in the cards this winter, but it is difficult for guidance to pick up on it at range, so hard to know. Oof!!! Thinkin' about that -NAO we had last winter...dag nabbit!! (And dang it if it shows up in March a la 2018 so help me...lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, but he didn’t collapse on his hotel room floor, crying and inconsolable that he was missing a snowstorm. So no. No I won’t be like Marion Barry if I miss a HECS. pics of that please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Oof!!! Thinkin' about that -NAO we had last winter...dag nabbit!! Would have worked out a lot better had Canada not been flooded with mild Pacific air. A persistent -AO/NAO is hard to beat for our area but it cant work miracles when the source region is devoid of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, but he didn’t collapse on his hotel room floor, crying and inconsolable that he was missing a snowstorm. So no. No I won’t be like Marion Barry if I miss a HECS. Nah, he saved the crying for when he got to Petersburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Would have worked out a lot better had Canada not been flooded with mild Pacific air. A persistent -AO/NAO is hard to beat for our area but it cant work miracles when the source region is devoid of cold. Yeah I know--that what sucked about that. That was just some bad fortune there...that winter could've been so much better with even a marginal pac...dang it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Stronger slp this run and we have good timing early morning if we can get this system to trend west It kind of looks like rain though…. Doesn’t it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Stronger slp this run and we have good timing early morning if we can get this system to trend west This one is a bit of a quandary. It probably wont do much good(anywhere) with a weaker/more eastern track due to the rotting airmass. A rain snow mix/snow tv over this way would be the most likely outcome. OTOH, if it could amp up some it might be a decent wet snow event west of the fall line. Problem is the overall pattern is not very supportive of that, but not impossible. Just have to keep an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 21 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, but he didn’t collapse on his hotel room floor, crying and inconsolable that he was missing a snowstorm. So no. No I won’t be like Marion Barry if I miss a HECS. Oh He had a snowstorm and models… 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I am looking 10 days out…WB 18Z GFS 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I am looking 10 days out…WB 18Z GFSDid you look at the way we got that pink? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Happy that the GFS Icestorm for Friday/Saturday is gone. There will be a plenty of action later in February and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: That is really just a transient ridge shifting through the NAO space in response to the TPV deepening and digging southward. Might help some if we timed a storm perfectly with its presence there, but the TPV is going to rotate up into that location and replace it just beyond this timeframe. Not sure a useful(persistent) -NAO is in the cards this winter, but it is difficult for guidance to pick up on it at range, so hard to know. I agree with you about a sustained -NAO. Probably not gonna happen in a Nina. But we dont really need it sustained. Just timed right for us to score. The next 4 weeks are prime climo for us to score a decent event. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 11 minutes ago, Ji said: 29 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I am looking 10 days out…WB 18Z GFS Did you look at the way we got that pink? Yah, it will never happen that way….but if everyone else can chase unicorns so can I!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 13 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I agree with you about a sustained -NAO. Probably not gonna happen in a Nina. But we dont really need it sustained. Just timed right for us to score. The next 4 weeks are prime climo for us to score a decent event. We'll see what happens. Alright last bemoaning of this (for now): Dang it it DID happen last year...but the stupid dang PAC flood!!! You gotta wonder if we could've been lookin' at a close second to 95-96 had it not been for that! *steam coming from head" On a another note...what effect does ENSO have on -AO/-NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 17 minutes ago, stormy said: Happy that the GFS Icestorm for Friday/Saturday is gone. There will be a plenty of action later in February and March. I hope you are correct about later Feb and March. I for one will take any winter weather Mother Nature wants to give no matter what it looks like. Love ice events as much as snow for it's unique beauty. But alas, the Phin curse lives on for this storm. Hopefully not a long wait for our next system, but there are never promises, only hopes when it comes to winter weather in our parts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Alright last bemoaning of this (for now): Dang it it DID happen last year...but the stupid dang PAC flood!!! You gotta wonder if we could've been lookin' at a close second to 95-96 had it not been for that! *steam coming from head" On a another note...what effect does ENSO have on -AO/-NAO? The PAC ridge is pretty much normal in a Nina. The Atlantic side has been completely weird though. The few times it has buckled those of us to the west have been pretty screwed. The SE has had more than their fare share. And it appears the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley are going to get theirs over the next couple of weeks which is also normal in a Nina. I am wishcasting but I think we will get one to line up for us before its over. Everyone else has scored. We are due. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 42 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Alright last bemoaning of this (for now): Dang it it DID happen last year...but the stupid dang PAC flood!!! You gotta wonder if we could've been lookin' at a close second to 95-96 had it not been for that! *steam coming from head" On a another note...what effect does ENSO have on -AO/-NAO? I think HL blocking generally works better when we have a stj and the tendency for storms to form/ develop south of our latitude, and move north underneath it. Blocking in a Nina can still be advantageous, but we have the intrinsic issue of NS dominance and tendency for storms to track further north/miller B us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: I think HL blocking generally works better when we have a stj and the tendency for storms to form/ develop south of our latitude, and move north underneath it. Blocking in a Nina can still be advantageous, but we have the intrinsic issue of NS dominance and tendency for storms to track further north/miller B us. I broke down all the blocking periods over 20 years by enso once. We are still likely to get snow in a -NAO Nina but they are more likely to be moderate storms not HECS level. Last year kinda fir that bill only it was 2-3 degrees too warm. If not DC would have had several 4-8” level storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 We do waste blocks in a Nina sometimes. But we can waste a block in a Nino also. 2016 there were two more episodes of blocking after the blizzard and we mostly wasted them. 2010 had blocking wall to wall but it was one storm in Dec and an epic 12 day period in Feb. No one remembers the miller b we missed in late Feb then weeks of suppression after. We mostly wasted a block in the 2007 Nino and the 2005 Nino was meh despite blocking. 1998 had epic blocking but no cold. It’s just we get so many HECS level events from Nino blocking we tend to forget the misses. Plus if we hit one or two hecs storms no one remembers the month we didn’t snow with the block. In a Nina a hit is more likely to be a 4-8” storm. Or maybe a 8-12”. But if that’s all we get all winter like 2011 it’s still a crap winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I broke down all the blocking periods over 20 years by enso once. We are still likely to get snow in a -NAO Nina but they are more likely to be moderate storms not HECS level. Last year kinda fir that bill only it was 2-3 degrees too warm. If not DC would have had several 4-8” level storms. Yeah last winter could have been much better for places along the fall line and points east with the persistent favorable look up top, if not for the overwhelming pacific puke. That is the set up that usually works so well for my location wrt snowfall, yet I have done MUCH better this winter in a Nina with no blocking. The difference is clearly the degree of cold air available, but it also took some luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: There's no precip over us verbatim..column would cool . Early morning timing and cold enough temps imo if it was a hit I agree. I'm actually tired of missing out on QPF to the east of me while I'm high and dry. I'm in the mind set of bring this SOB west and let the chips fall. Me and you could probably do okay with a further west track as temps could cooperate where were at. I'd rather have 34 and rain then see another storm off the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 2 hours ago, H2O said: pics of that please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 18z Euro at hour 90 end of run actually looks to be better at h5 then the HH Gfs for the day 5 system . Hard to to be sure extraping but it appears it would have been a bit better at the surface . Itll change at 0z most likely but it's not real far from effecting us Just coming here to post that...it's world's better. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Let me clarify...I'm talking vs Euro's 12z run. ETA: Shit, it's better than GFS at 18z too. Higher heights in front..more diggy look 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Come on Randy Going Away Storm (Tm) 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 18z Euro at hour 90 end of run actually looks to be better at h5 then the HH Gfs for the day 5 system . Hard to to be sure extraping but it appears it would have been a bit better at the surface . Itll change at 0z most likely but it's not real far from effecting us Pictures, would like to look at them and try to see why it looks better than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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