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Feb 4 2022 Stupid Ice Threat


mappy
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18 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

So once again, the eastern shore somehow has a better shot to change to a period of snow (albeit brief) than the Central MD area:fulltilt: OCMD is a snow town

Only other model I have seen hint at that is the CMC, and if it did happen it would be wholly insignificant.

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Only other model I have seen hint at that is the CMC, and if it did happen it would be wholly insignificant.

Certainly, its just funny that the shore seems to keep getting better odds of snow. Even the "event" a couple weeks ago where we thought an arctic front would change things over to a couple inches of snow for DC/Balt turned out to be the eastern shore with it happening to a greater extent.

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13 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

WWA cancel?

Nope.

Also, from LWX 1030am discussion

A Winter Weather Advisory remains
in effect for counties bordering PA (with the exception of
Cecil, southern Baltimore, and southern Harford), as well as the
eastern WV Panhandle. Locations within the Winter Weather
Advisory will see a glaze to a tenth of an inch of freezing rain
in most spots, with a few isolated higher totals possible in
Garrett County and north- central MD. For the time being, plain
rain is expected elsewhere. We`ll continue to evaluate new model
guidance and trends throughout the day, and adjust headlines
accordingly. Some sleet may also mix in within the Winter
Weather Advisory zone. It can`t be ruled out, that portions of
the DC metro could encounter a brief mix in of snow and sleet
into the rain toward the end of the precipitation. Precipitation
will wind down from west to east during the afternoon. 
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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Whatever heater its been on (real or imagined) it didn't do very well here and was not good for the last storm.

You know this stuff backwards and forwards but Ive been seeing a trend towards putting a single piece of guidance too far above everything else just because. I don't like it at all. It kills good discussion.

  Using recent past performance of ops to definitively judge future performance is almost always a mistake. This game has never worked that way except when the euro dominated the mid range accuracy. Those days are long over. All ops are good and bad at different things.

Since the atmosphere is nearly infinitely complex, it's impossible to know exactly what causes an op to stand out on a specific setup. It is always best to use all available guidance then use your brain to finish the job. Model hugging is an exercise in getting egg on your face. Don't believe me? Just ask DT. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You know this stuff backwards and forwards but Ive been seeing a trend towards putting a single piece of guidance too far above everything else just because. I don't like it at all. It kills good discussion.

  Using recent past performance of ops to definitively judge future performance is almost always a mistake. This game has never worked that way except when the euro dominated the mid range accuracy. Those days are long over. All ops are good and bad at different things.

Since the atmosphere is nearly infinitely complex, it's impossible to know exactly what causes an op to stand out on a specific setup. It is always best to use all available guidance then use your brain to finish the job. Model hugging is an exercise in getting egg on your face. Don't believe me? Just ask DT. 

Completely agree. Grading model performance is not my interest and above my pay grade. I have been low key trolling because of the GFS 'superiority' hyperbole we hear more often lately.

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4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

My buddy is driving from Philly to Frederick today and plans to drive back home tomorrow (Friday). Im not familiar with topography and micro climes down that way so I couldn't give him a solid answer on his travel conditions. Last I saw were a bunch of ice maps with Frederick in the crosshairs. Has this changed at all? I know up this way we aren't looking at much of anything frozen. Better for him to hold off leaving Frederick until Saturday AM or do you think Friday will be ok? Sorry to bother and clog the thread but I thank you for any advice.

I live in Frederick and depends where in Frederick he will be. I am SW of the city and my forecast is showing a low of 33 at noon when the precip ends. We are currently under a Winter Weather Advisory starting at 5 am till 4 pm. 

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42 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Completely agree. Grading model performance is not my interest and above my pay grade. I have been low key trolling because of the GFS 'superiority' hyperbole we hear more often lately.

Gfs does a really good job sometimes. I really like the recent upgrade for winter wx. One of the common errors is speed of fronts and how south or east they get d2-4. But that's easy to work with. When it's the eastest, move a little westest and you prob nail it. 

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seems like we're just too close to the surface low.  the areas getting the ice storm are on the western side...in some case, much further west.  surface winds are still out of the south/southeast into western nc/wv and pa.  even if temps are in the low 30s...i don't think that'll be enough.  far western ky/tn has temps in the 20s right now.

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