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Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 3


Chicago Storm
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6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 We probably won't have much left ahead of the storm if it stays mild like this all night, but it really is a moot point.

 I just got off the phone with my mom she said it was Sunny and almost 50゚there today. Had to feel like 70 with the cold y'all have had this winter.

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9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 We probably won't have much left ahead of the storm if it stays mild like this all night, but it really is a moot point.

I live in Canton and a lot of my yard is still very frozen even with warm temps suprisingly. Thin layer in sun areas thawed won’t take much to freeze over unless we get a good amount of rain

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9 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Has Chicago ever had a lake effect enhanced snowstorm a la Cleveland or Buffalo? I went to school up at Northwestern and remember the 20+ inch storm in January 1999 but no real lake effect machine up in Evanston.

Usually happens once a year. Last year we had a big one where lake enahnced snow torched the shoreline and about 5-10 miles in. Then just last Friday we got 8~ inches just on lake effect snow. But no, we don't ever get what buffalo gets. The wind rarely comes off the lake from the east. 

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33 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

 I just got off the phone with my mom she said it was Sunny and almost 50゚there today. Had to feel like 70 with the cold y'all have had this winter.

It felt so warm it was crazy. Funny how your body does that.  Now tonight with the moisture increasing it feels damp. Just a funny feel after it's been so dry cold for so long.  Snow cover now ranges from grass to 2" and where there are grass patches the ground remains rock hard.  Guess it's all part of the ingredients that make this storm come together.

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33 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

I live in Canton and a lot of my yard is still very frozen even with warm temps suprisingly. Thin layer in sun areas thawed won’t take much to freeze over unless we get a good amount of rain

 Just see my previous post.. I was thinking the same thing. It's funny how frozen the ground remains despite the warm day.

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2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It felt so warm it was crazy. Funny how your body does that.  Now tonight with the moisture increasing it feels damp. Just a funny feel after it's been so dry cold for so long.  Snow cover now ranges from grass to 2" and where there are grass patches the ground remains rock hard.  Guess it's all part of the ingredients that make this storm come together.

It seems that's a common theme with snowstorms in our area. It warms up A-day or 2 before the snowstorm and unfortunately we start over at 0 by the time the snow starts again.

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Switching over now, very slippery layer of frozen slush on paved surfaces. Untreated roads are slick in spots as well. I don't think the warm day did much thawing of the ground. I guess those days going below zero with a bare ground have paid off. :lol:

HRRR, NAM, and 3km NAM have me right in the bullseye for the biggest snow storm of my life. :weenie::weenie::weenie:

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For those in LSX: 

000
FXUS63 KLSX 020254
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
854 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022

A broad area of precipitation stretches from interior sections of
central Illinois to southwest Missouri this evening. Coverage and
arrival time of the precipitation is in good agreement with
expectations so far.

Automated surface observations show sub-freezing air making
progress into portions of northeast Missouri and west-central
Illinois. Rain transitioned to a brief period of freezing
rain/sleet around Quincy before changing to all snow around the
02z hour. Reports of all snow in Hannibal also provide ground
truth to the advancing cold air.

What has been evident over the last 3-4 hours is that the cold air
has run about 20-25 miles further southeast than hourly forecast
trends previously depicted. Updates have been made to reflect this
trend with the potential that FZRA/PL could be 1-2 hours ahead of
schedule, should this trend win out. The only question remains
the warm nose aloft and how long it holds/erodes tonight into the
morning period. This trend will need to be monitored through the
night, as any deviation will have the greatest impact on
accumulations near the transition zone (southeast MO/southwest
IL).

Maples

&&

Current rain snow line:

image.png.8be7aed2a2fa5d807054190484dbb03c.png

 

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