Hoosier Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Chambana said: anxiety and anticipation has taken over, this might be CMI biggest snowfall on record. What's the record there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: I don't measure like I used to. I eyeballed 16-17", which fell in line with the 16-20" reported across the City. YYZ with 13.5" if you're looking for the lowball but official number Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 *clears throat* That is not the full run. Only the final 24 hours of it. To be fair, comparing the models through 00z Thursday, the RAP isn't wildly different than the other non NAM models. 18z NAMs by far have the sharpest cutoff over northern Illinois. The incoming dry Arctic air mass will clearly play a role in causing the cutoff that all the models are depicting, but I think the NAM is likely being too aggressive with the razor sharp northwest edge. I've seen multiple times where NAM soundings that are supportive of snow do not show any QPF/snow at that location. This on/off precip binning likely has something to do with the NAM's BMJ convective scheme according to one of our leads. (O/T but this issue doesn't only arise with snow either. Those on here who chased April 14, 2012 will recall that the NAM did not convect on the KS dryline, which led a decent amount of chasers to go with the Nebraska warm front target.)Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 18 minutes ago, Jonger said: Yes please That run would be perfect for us!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: What's the record there? 15” during blizzard of 99. I’m in awe right now. 13.5” during Vday blizzard of 07. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Lightning said: That run would be perfect for us!! Didn't realize you were from Fenton, we are pretty much on the same team here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 10 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Very nice. Blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 10 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: To be fair, comparing the models through 00z Thursday, the RAP isn't wildly different than the other non NAM models. 18z NAMs by far have the sharpest cutoff over northern Illinois. The incoming dry Arctic air mass will clearly play a role in causing the cutoff that all the models are depicting, but I think the NAM is likely being too aggressive with the razor sharp northwest edge. I've seen multiple times where NAM soundings that are supportive of snow do not show any QPF/snow at that location. This on/off precip binning likely has something to do with the NAM's BMJ convective scheme according to one of our leads. (O/T but this issue doesn't only arise with snow either. Those on here who chased April 14, 2012 will recall that the NAM did not convect on the KS dryline, which led a decent amount of chasers to go with the Nebraska warm front target.) Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Yeah, good point about the NAM dry air tendencies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: To be fair, comparing the models through 00z Thursday, the RAP isn't wildly different than the other non NAM models. 18z NAMs by far have the sharpest cutoff over northern Illinois. The incoming dry Arctic air mass will clearly play a role in causing the cutoff that all the models are depicting, but I think the NAM is likely being too aggressive with the razor sharp northwest edge. I've seen multiple times where NAM soundings that are supportive of snow do not show any QPF/snow at that location. This on/off precip binning likely has something to do with the NAM's BMJ convective scheme according to one of our leads. (O/T but this issue doesn't only arise with snow either. Those on here who chased April 14, 2012 will recall that the NAM did not convect on the KS dryline, which led a decent amount of chasers to go with the Nebraska warm front target.) Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Only Ricky could throw out a random comp and shoutout to a day we each saw tors in KS lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, Chambana said: 15” during blizzard of 99. I’m in awe right now. You're looking good. Hope you can beat that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I’m hoping for a good 16 and I’m by DTW. Hope it’s a little more moist for NW folks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 39 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: That being said, that's an easy 20" here if that happened. Assuming the last piece comes through here of course... I have a certain Prince Rogers Nelson song playing right now. Let's hope it works. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, Jonger said: Didn't realize you were from Fenton, we are pretty much on the same team here. I am in the northeast corner of Livingston county in the hills!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I have a certain Prince Rogers Nelson song playing right now. Let's hope it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 ILX impact graphic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I'll go with 1-3" for here/QC. Might get shutout completely, but I'll be 'optimistic' lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Decent sized area of "extreme" shown on the winter storm severity index forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 34 minutes ago, Chambana said: anxiety and anticipation has taken over, this might be CMI biggest snowfall on record. This is quite a change compared to such an abysmal start to winter in eastern IL. Has Champaign even received a 1" snowfall yet this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Toledo Mets are ALL IN on this being Historic. They're all pretty conservative so this is a Big Deal. Now I need to decide what type of beer to get! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Waiting to hear those two magic words as the 18z ECMWF comes in... "bumped south" 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kaner88 said: Waiting to hear those two magic words as the 18z ECMWF comes in... "bumped south" Indeed it did... SE bump with both the overrunning event and the main storm system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 11 minutes ago, fluoronium said: This is quite a change compared to such an abysmal start to winter in eastern IL. Has Champaign even received a 1" snowfall yet this season? No we have not. 3rd latest 1” snowfall on record. Stores are absolutely bonkers right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Indeed it did... SE bump with both the overrunning event and the main storm system. You mean nw bump.. And it is ever so slight.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Can someone please post the 18z EURO map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Well at least we’ve got the RAP and HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Harry said: You mean nw bump.. And it is ever so slight.. Whole axis shifted SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Harry said: You mean nw bump.. And it is ever so slight.. Whatever the case, 18z Euro = old data. 21z RAP newer data. (Ok I'll stop riding the RAP so hard now) 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 When’s the last time ORD hit double digits on a storm system? Seems like a couple years, at least (and looks to continue after this). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Sciascia said: When’s the last time ORD hit double digits on a storm system? Seems like a couple years, at least. Last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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