Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 hours ago, mississaugasnow said: Ya, weirdly im concerned about both. Wednesday has trended a bit warmer down here in the Hamilton-Niagara region. It will take a thread the needle event for 12" but im enjoying the tracking. I may be wrong but I think YYZ has 4-6" of new snow coming this week all but locked up. Issue for me is it just a winter weather travel advisory for 2-3" of slop Wednesday followed by 2-3" of powder Thursday. Should also mention I enjoy retaining snow packs haha. So we went from thinking this week would bring first 50s to the region in a while and obliterate the snow pack to upper 30s Tuesday, some light rain to begin followed by more snow. This should help create a glacier that will become tougher to melt in the coming days/weeks I'm starting to think 4" in total for Toronto. This thing looks to get really supressed. I guess I can't complain - January 17th was the storm of a lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, janetjanet998 said: as some have mentioned 21z RAP good north bump also seems to be rather north with part 2 at the end, at least some overlap possible with round 2 for me too if this pans out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said: Im getting a bit more concerned with losing current snowpack and getting more rain. EC going nothing but rain for Tuesday night into Wednesday for me. I have 7" OTG and didnt expect so much rain to be forecasted. Unlikely it all washes away, my guess is I lose 3-4" and the rest will turn into a glacier. Also getting a bit nervous Ill be on the lower end of the 4-6" minimum I mentioned haha. Might end up right back at 7" OTG by friday morning so if you slept from today and woke up friday the snow depth wouldnt change haha If you're in Hamilton, there's a winter storm watch for you now - 10-12" of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: a post with the full run of the RAP sums up the state of the local threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 First and final call: 14.5". Gets us near our average for the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 When will the second wave get sampled, or is that rather inconsequential to what we've seen in the models this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, Ottawa Blizzard said: If you're in Hamilton, there's a winter storm watch for you now - 10-12" of snow. Yep. Still hesitant, but I missed the January 17th storm so this could be my biggest if the year. GTA Mets are also torn on what’s going to happen. One of the weather network Mets thinking some freezing rain for Niagara is possible while another thinks suppression may win out. how much snow do you still have on the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Air Traffic Control Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This run gives me nightmare fuel. That's a LOT of sleet and ice, which, last time in this area during GHD I, kicked off power for two weeks. Please go south, runs! If my 1" snow season total gets crushed by inches of ice and sleet, I'll be legit frozen solid in my generator-less house, jajaja... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 That 21z RAP would probably look like the 12z GFS run from 1/29, if extrapolated. But alas, that is the ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: a post with the full run of the RAP sums up the state of the local threat. *clears throat* That is not the full run. Only the final 24 hours of it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cartier God Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 final call 10.5 inches. ready 2 reel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Harry said: Lol.. Hey you remember back in the day what happened to Hoosier storm threads? Lol You used to have the golden touch. And yeah it helped having geos around.. Damn him! It's his fault! Someone go find hIm! Gotta have some fun with this! 1 hour ago, Thundersnow12 said: Yeah there was that one winter I was on a roll of a hot streak lol Cant remember the last time Joe brought the goods i had a good thread making winter several years ago, forgot which. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That being said, that's an easy 20" here if that happened. Assuming the last piece comes through here of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: I'm starting to think 4" in total for Toronto. This thing looks to get really supressed. I guess I can't complain - January 17th was the storm of a lifetime. I think you're discounting the GEM/EURO too readily. The majority of 18z GEFS members look like those models locally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, Air Traffic Control said: This run gives me nightmare fuel. That's a LOT of sleet and ice, which, last time in this area during GHD I, kicked off power for two weeks. Please go south, runs! If my 1" snow season total gets crushed by inches of ice and sleet, I'll be legit frozen solid in my generator-less house, jajaja... Relax. RAP is notorious for being way NW / too amped in its long range. It's mostly being posted as weenie fodder for those on the northern edge. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulder Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Powerball said: Relax. RAP is notorious for being way NW / too amped in its long range. It's mostly being posted as weenie fodder for those on the northern edge. I disagree, the RAP shows the best snow outcome for my area, so it must be sniffing out something that all the other models are missing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, Powerball said: Relax. RAP is notorious for being way NW / too amped in its long range. It's mostly being posted as weenie fodder for those on the northern edge. Desperate times call for desperate measures (in this case, a RAP/RGEM blend) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 22 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: That being said, that's an easy 20" here if that happened. Assuming the last piece comes through here of course... That would be all-time level snows here....and that's why it won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I'm ashamed to admit I have been following the RAP since it got in range, and it was actually too far south initially with tomorrow night's overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Gonna take a real miracle to get the main ( second ) system to back up far enough nw to have any decent impact here. And no I don't believe in weather miracles atleast. Lol Still part 1 looks to provide a decent hit with potentially more. Near certain the historic potential is near zero though for here atleast. That ended when part two decided to go se on modeling. Was hoping for my first day off in over a month.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I seem to recall that the RAP did the best with the Boston blizzard a couple days ago out of all the short term models, while other models were trending drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'm ashamed to admit I have been following the RAP since it got in range, and it was actually too far south initially with tomorrow night's overrunning. The first step is admitting you have a problem. Welcome to the club 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Remember kids, all weather models are terrible unless they show what outcome you want. 3 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 16 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: I think you're discounting the GEM/EURO too readily. The majority of 18z GEFS members look like those models locally. Hey, how much did you get IYBY with that storm that hit Toronto a couple of weeks back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Oops, I did it again Comparison of RAP runs valid at 00z Wed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 RAP was pretty far south initially, but it has corrected north. Probably just it being itself but it’s all we got 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 anxiety and anticipation has taken over, this might be CMI biggest snowfall on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago WX said: Hey, how much did you get IYBY with that storm that hit Toronto a couple of weeks back? I don't measure like I used to. I eyeballed 16-17", which fell in line with the 16-20" reported across the City. YYZ with 13.5" if you're looking for the lowball but official number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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