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Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 2


Chicago Storm
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I'm going to take today's 12Z runs for my neck of the woods as a small win. Seems like models are converging on a common solution where I take a 4"-6" event but in the game for substantially more if a small shift north commences and or lake enhancement helps. Chicago folks seem to forget prior to yesterday's 12Z runs only 1 model(GFS) had us in the game at all. So a 2"-10" spread NW to SE across the area is actually an improvement over the past 36 hours, yesterday's 18Z GFS and NAM runs not withstanding. 

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Never really done this but I'm sort of segmenting this one in my head.  Hyper focused on Tue night into the first part of Wed, and then whatever will be will be.

Think I may willed this a little too far south after last nights NAM. :arrowhead: :D

But I’m with you. It’s all overrunning for here now. Second piece looks like scraps. Only caution flag for MBY is how long does the flip to snow take. Going to waste some QPF on rain, so hopefully that all works out. Right now I’m thinking 6-10” for IKK storm total. Foot possible, but everything needs to break right for that to happen.

Regardless, looks like an awesome storm for central iL and IN and on east. Would love to see someone pull a 20 spot out of this…

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49 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

That south trend needs to do a full on reverse starting with the 18z runs and continuing till storm time. If this is to do anything meaningful up this way. 

Note the lead system and how much stronger it has gotten on modeling ( see GFS etc ) once it heads for and past Hudson bay. That is what is helping to pull everything further south and se. Can only hope the modeling is overdoing that feature.  

I agree the south trend does need to stop on the GFS!!  My thought is we may not see much of a north trend until the southern stream VORT gets better sampling tomorrow.  The stronger the better but weaker and well you know.

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I saw someone say something about the high pressure over Canada is running a bit weaker than what is modeled. Looks like its about 2-3mbr weaker with my completely untrained eye. Will this have any real impact on the trajectory of the main event?

*I guess I should mention that the pressure right now is a little bit weaker. I don't know what it was 6~hours ago.* 

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3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

desperate weenie stuff, ez toss

really? I was going to post it feels like spring outside today, and if that warm weather meant the storm would be further north. Also, with the snowpack melting off a bit that should help as well to bring it north. I have no pride when it comes to landing a 20" snowstorm IMBY.

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3 minutes ago, Baum said:

really? I was going to post it feels like spring outside today, and if that warm weather meant the storm would be further north. Also, with the snowpack melting off a bit that should help as well to bring it north. I have no pride when it comes to landing a 20" snowstorm IMBY.

HRRR has it around 50º tomorrow. 

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3 minutes ago, Baum said:

really? I was going to post it feels like spring outside today, and if that warm weather meant the storm would be further north. Also, with the snowpack melting off a bit that should help as well to bring it north. I have no pride when it comes to landing a 20" snowstorm IMBY.

it was supposed to be warm today/tomorrow even on the miss south guidance, not seeing anything to suggest model guidance on baroclinic zone is off

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13 minutes ago, Lightning said:

I agree the south trend does need to stop on the GFS!!  My thought is we may not see much of a north trend until the southern stream VORT gets better sampling tomorrow.  The stronger the better but weaker and well you know.

 

I am not gonna lie but there was a point in time a little over a day ago I thought this sucker could end up going a bit too far north bringing that nasty ice threat. Lol Guess we can close the book on that sort of thing happening anymore. Won't say it is zero but yeah low.. Back in the days of 07/08 and GHD l we would be wondering who is getting smashed in WI. Yeah GHD ll came back north a bit but not like many of the others prior to that did. 

 

Now for the 18z runs! Start crossing toes, legs etc.. lol 

 

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16 minutes ago, CANNOTDIVIDEBY0 said:

I saw someone say something about the high pressure over Canada is running a bit weaker than what is modeled. Looks like its about 2-3mbr weaker with my completely untrained eye. Will this have any real impact on the trajectory of the main event?

*I guess I should mention that the pressure right now is a little bit weaker. I don't know what it was 6~hours ago.* 

No.

The evolution of the upper level trough and jet dynamics is what will dictate the strength of this storm and the location of the best forcing.

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2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

it was supposed to be warm today/tomorrow even on the miss south guidance, not seeing anything to suggest model guidance on baroclinic zone is off

Its the LLJ from the northern stream low heading up into Canada.  It would be one thing if that low was farther north than modeled, but stronger is probably detrimental.  

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12 minutes ago, Baum said:

really? I was going to post it feels like spring outside today, and if that warm weather meant the storm would be further north. Also, with the snowpack melting off a bit that should help as well to bring it north. I have no pride when it comes to landing a 20" snowstorm IMBY.

Torching in the upper 50's out here. 

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12 minutes ago, Baum said:

really? I was going to post it feels like spring outside today, and if that warm weather meant the storm would be further north. Also, with the snowpack melting off a bit that should help as well to bring it north. I have no pride when it comes to landing a 20" snowstorm IMBY.

I'm just waiting for the "nowcasting time!" posts.

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Over running becoming the main event for Chicago, but it’s decent 
I for sure became more optimistic yesterday on round 2 also being big up here, but round 1 has always been the more likely way to get warning level snows in the metro.

There's not a lot observational wise that can tell us which outcome is more correct, so we have to go by the overall guidance consensus, which is an upper level pattern evolution less favorable to get round 2 farther north. But on the other hand, aside from the GFS, there has been a general positive trend today for round 1 in the metro.

Given some past fairly similar events trending more positive in the near term for what would be round 2, giving some more time on that, but certainly did not trend favorably today.

Here's the IL/IN zoom 10:1 ratio snowfall totals from the Euro runs going back to the 00z 1/30, showing that near and southeast of I-55 continues to be most favorable and a better look for northeast Illinois with the unfortunate exception of the far NW burbs.
Let me know if you'd like a Kuchera ratio gif or a a gif with a Midwest zoom.2722a1511974237043a1d7fee8602576.gif

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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43 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Think I may willed this a little too far south after last nights NAM. :arrowhead: :D

But I’m with you. It’s all overrunning for here now. Second piece looks like scraps. Only caution flag for MBY is how long does the flip to snow take. Going to waste some QPF on rain, so hopefully that all works out. Right now I’m thinking 6-10” for IKK storm total. Foot possible, but everything needs to break right for that to happen.

Regardless, looks like an awesome storm for central iL and IN and on east. Would love to see someone pull a 20 spot out of this…

6-10 is too low. The models have been super consistent with our area 

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