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Model Mayhem Snowstorm! 2/2-2/4


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7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Pulling out all the stops to ensure snow, nice.

I'm accepting the likelihood of sleet/ice with maybe a few to several inches on the back end down here, and if the few snowier solutions win out or there a final SE shift at the last minute from where things currently stand, I'll be that much more thrilled. 

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7 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

I'm accepting the likelihood of sleet/ice with maybe a few to several inches on the back end down here, and if the few snowier solutions win out or there a final SE shift at the last minute from where things currently stand, I'll be that much more thrilled. 

The NWS graphics has you at 9”. It’s gonna be a close call with this one. 

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Thursday the surface front will push towards the south and east with
sufficient cold air in the lower level building to support all snow.
As the cold air builds the initial wet snow will slowly become less
dense with greater snow to liquid ratios. There likely will be
breaks in the snow, especially towards the Finger Lakes region.
Given the weak forcing snowfall amounts through the day will range
from 3 to 6 inches. This combined with snow likely to increase later
Thursday Night will give confidence to upgrade the winter storm
watch to a winter storm warning for our entire region.

Winds will remain light from the northwest to north through the day
Thursday, with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph, greatly limited any blowing
snow.

It will be cooler Thursday with temperatures slowly falling through
the 20s.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Impactful Winter Storm continues through this period...

12z model suite not exhibiting much variation to warrant any notable
change to current thinking. Thermal profiles suggesting the entire
area will have changed over to all snow by Thursday morning. Given
that deep column saturation holds on within background omega field,
expect that weak ascent will be able to support a relatively steady
light to occasionally snow through the day Thursday. Snowfall rates
probably not getting much over a half inch per hour. Snow to liquid
ratios improving a bit through the day, perhaps ending the day near
14:1 over northern portions of the area, which should support
manageable additional snowfall amounts of 2-5 inches during the
daytime hours.

Stronger wave lifts north into the region late in the day Thursday
and into Thursday night. Forcing should increase during this time
with snowfall rates on the order of 1 inch per hour certainly
plausible for a time early Thursday night. Wave starts to depart
late Thursday night with snowfall amounts starting to trail off from
west to east. Additional amounts during Thursday night look a bit
heavier and generally in the 3-6 inch range which falls within
most of the guidance.

Little evidence for any significant activity Friday as the wave
departs. Additional snowfall amounts during this period will be tied
to north-northeasterly lake enhancement. At this point, could see
additional amounts of a few inches south of Lake Ontario Friday.
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