EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 I think we are going to see wild temperature swings in March. TRUE torch conditions (not 50 degree fake torch days that average out to a record month), however 60 degree plus days. I also think we will have strong cold shots when cutters pass. I am hesitant to say "winter is over" as this is a perfect weak trailing wave light snow event setup. Just looking at the GFS show multiple coating to 2 inch events. We will not have the pesky negative NAO to cause compression this time (December was a disaster cool and dry). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Boxing Day must've been a severe undermeasurement at ISLIP. No way they only had 14.9 for the entire month when NYC got 20" just in one storm. I never trust ISLIP snowfall stats anyway. They were too far east in Boxing day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Again don't think I have ever seen this before, probably more to do with ensemble spread than actuality, but..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Boxing Day must've been a severe undermeasurement at ISLIP. No way they only had 14.9 for the entire month when NYC got 20" just in one storm. I never trust ISLIP snowfall stats anyway. The measurement for Boxing Day at ISP was correct. The best banding with that one was closer to NE NJ. Much less out across Suffolk. https://www.weather.gov/okx/storm12262010 SUFFOLK COUNTY... UPTON 18.8 100 PM 12/27 NWS OFFICE NORTH BABYLON 18.5 845 AM 12/27 PUBLIC PATCHOGUE 17.0 900 AM 12/27 PUBLIC CENTEREACH 17.0 930 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER WEST ISLIP 16.0 1215 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER EAST NORTHPORT 15.5 715 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER SOUND BEACH 15.5 1200 PM 12/27 NWS EMPLOYEE NORTHPORT 15.2 138 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER CENTERPORT 15.0 650 AM 12/27 COOP-OBSERVER BLUE POINT 15.0 1100 AM 12/27 PUBLIC EAST SETAUKET 15.0 715 AM 12/27 PUBLIC MOUNT SINAI 14.2 1255 PM 12/27 NWS EMPLOYEE ISLIP AIRPORT 14.2 100 PM 12/27 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER QUOGUE 14.0 1100 AM 12/27 PUBLIC SHOREHAM 14.0 900 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER SAYVILLE 14.0 1000 AM 12/27 PUBLIC HOLBROOK 12.5 900 AM 12/27 PUBLIC BAITING HOLLOW 12.0 145 PM 12/27 PUBLIC SMITHTOWN 11.5 1000 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER PORT JEFFERSON 11.0 800 AM 12/27 PUBLIC DIX HILLS 10.7 900 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER FLANDERS 10.0 620 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Boxing Day must've been a severe undermeasurement at ISLIP. No way they only had 14.9 for the entire month when NYC got 20" just in one storm. I never trust ISLIP snowfall stats anyway. They dry slotted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 What do we know about this? Impact here? from Ventrice below: The Madden Julian Oscillation is the strongest we've seen since last November. But you wouldn't know this if you were looking at the ECMWF's prediction of the MJO in the real-time multivariate MJO index. This is a time where the RMM index is failing at identifying this event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 The measurement for Boxing Day at ISP was correct. The best banding with that one was closer to NE NJ. Much less out across Suffolk.https://www.weather.gov/okx/storm12262010SUFFOLK COUNTY... UPTON 18.8 100 PM 12/27 NWS OFFICE NORTH BABYLON 18.5 845 AM 12/27 PUBLIC PATCHOGUE 17.0 900 AM 12/27 PUBLIC CENTEREACH 17.0 930 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER WEST ISLIP 16.0 1215 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER EAST NORTHPORT 15.5 715 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER SOUND BEACH 15.5 1200 PM 12/27 NWS EMPLOYEE NORTHPORT 15.2 138 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER CENTERPORT 15.0 650 AM 12/27 COOP-OBSERVER BLUE POINT 15.0 1100 AM 12/27 PUBLIC EAST SETAUKET 15.0 715 AM 12/27 PUBLIC MOUNT SINAI 14.2 1255 PM 12/27 NWS EMPLOYEE ISLIP AIRPORT 14.2 100 PM 12/27 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER QUOGUE 14.0 1100 AM 12/27 PUBLIC SHOREHAM 14.0 900 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER SAYVILLE 14.0 1000 AM 12/27 PUBLIC HOLBROOK 12.5 900 AM 12/27 PUBLIC BAITING HOLLOW 12.0 145 PM 12/27 PUBLIC SMITHTOWN 11.5 1000 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER PORT JEFFERSON 11.0 800 AM 12/27 PUBLIC DIX HILLS 10.7 900 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER FLANDERS 10.0 620 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTERYep, the death bands were over Monmouth, Staten Island and eastern Union counties for that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, SI Mailman said: 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The measurement for Boxing Day at ISP was correct. The best banding with that one was closer to NE NJ. Much less out across Suffolk.https://www.weather.gov/okx/storm12262010 SUFFOLK COUNTY... UPTON 18.8 100 PM 12/27 NWS OFFICE NORTH BABYLON 18.5 845 AM 12/27 PUBLIC PATCHOGUE 17.0 900 AM 12/27 PUBLIC CENTEREACH 17.0 930 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER WEST ISLIP 16.0 1215 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER EAST NORTHPORT 15.5 715 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER SOUND BEACH 15.5 1200 PM 12/27 NWS EMPLOYEE NORTHPORT 15.2 138 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER CENTERPORT 15.0 650 AM 12/27 COOP-OBSERVER BLUE POINT 15.0 1100 AM 12/27 PUBLIC EAST SETAUKET 15.0 715 AM 12/27 PUBLIC MOUNT SINAI 14.2 1255 PM 12/27 NWS EMPLOYEE ISLIP AIRPORT 14.2 100 PM 12/27 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER QUOGUE 14.0 1100 AM 12/27 PUBLIC SHOREHAM 14.0 900 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER SAYVILLE 14.0 1000 AM 12/27 PUBLIC HOLBROOK 12.5 900 AM 12/27 PUBLIC BAITING HOLLOW 12.0 145 PM 12/27 PUBLIC SMITHTOWN 11.5 1000 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER PORT JEFFERSON 11.0 800 AM 12/27 PUBLIC DIX HILLS 10.7 900 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER FLANDERS 10.0 620 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER Yep, the death bands were over Monmouth, Staten Island and eastern Union counties for that one. Heart Boxing Day blizzard 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 49 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Heart Boxing Day blizzard I was in North Brunswick at the time. My then girlfriend / future wife and I were snowed in by 4+ foot snow drifts in our ground floor apartment. Was absolutely insane. That storm also was phenomenal where we live now down in Ocean. A true coastal snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: I think we are going to see wild temperature swings in March. TRUE torch conditions (not 50 degree fake torch days that average out to a record month), however 60 degree plus days. I also think we will have strong cold shots when cutters pass. I am hesitant to say "winter is over" as this is a perfect weak trailing wave light snow event setup. Just looking at the GFS show multiple coating to 2 inch events. We will not have the pesky negative NAO to cause compression this time (December was a disaster cool and dry). After it’s absolutely abysmal, pathetic performance with this last event and many others this winter….the GFS could show that the sun is going to rise tomorrow morning and I wouldn’t believe it. The fact that it’s ranking at #4 among the other models is very telling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 53 minutes ago, snowman19 said: After it’s absolutely abysmal, pathetic performance with this last event and many others this winter….the GFS could show that the sun is going to rise tomorrow morning and I wouldn’t believe it. The fact that it’s ranking at #4 among the other models is very telling Euro also did bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro also did bad yep had anywhere between 3-6 inches of snow here up to go time-never saw a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 alright i'm bored again what's next 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: alright i'm bored again what's next Probably March according to what people are saying?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Just now, Greg g said: Probably March according to what people are saying?? idk man do you have a source for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Walt has been mentioning it.. there is new March post.. he has a long post in that section Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 44 degrees now. The ice is history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 7 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: They were too far east in Boxing day. wow in SW Nassau we had like 18" I think that was the JFK total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: wow in SW Nassau we had like 18" I think that was the JFK total? Not sure but had 16 when I was in Norwalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 25, 2022 Author Share Posted February 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said: alright i'm bored again what's next Morch then Lawn thread followed by heatwave followed by winter 2022/2023 weenie out seasonal forecasts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 37 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Morch then Lawn thread followed by heatwave followed by winter 2022/2023 weenie out seasonal forecasts. You forgot about hurricane season. Looks like another clear the alphabet season. I like our odds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 March 05 High T's according to our expert models: EURO>>> 69, GFS>>> 38, CMC>>> 30 Plenty of time for all of them to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Euro also did bad When you have a setup like we just had and you have goofball model runs showing snow in NYC, it’s obvious that you just completely and totally disregard them and go with reality, basic meteorology and physics. You don’t get midlevel low tracks like we just had along with the associated midlevel warm nose and have snow in New York City or anywhere close to New York City, anyone who believed that needs to go back to met school. Those models were on crack showing anything but just sleet and rain given those torched midlevel soundings. This was nothing more than a ping fest and an impressive ping/sleet fest at that I will admit, but still a sleet fest to rain none the less 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 47 minutes ago, snowman19 said: When you have a setup like we just had and you have goofball model runs showing snow in NYC, it’s obvious that you just completely and totally disregard them and go with reality, basic meteorology and physics. You don’t get midlevel low tracks like we just had along with the associated midlevel warm nose and have snow in New York City or anywhere close to New York City, anyone who believed that needs to go back to met school. Those models were on crack showing anything but just sleet and rain given those torched midlevel soundings. This was nothing more than a ping fest and an impressive ping/sleet fest at that I will admit, but still a sleet fest to rain none the less Even a place like Boston didn't get the amount of snow they expected....I don't see 8 inch amounts coming in from that region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: You forgot about hurricane season. Looks like another clear the alphabet season. I like our odds you dont think we're going into an el nino for next winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: After it’s absolutely abysmal, pathetic performance with this last event and many others this winter….the GFS could show that the sun is going to rise tomorrow morning and I wouldn’t believe it. The fact that it’s ranking at #4 among the other models is very telling 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Euro also did bad I don't think any of then were that bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 5 hours ago, Brian5671 said: yep had anywhere between 3-6 inches of snow here up to go time-never saw a flake. People need to stop looking at snow maps and computer generated precip type bs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 59 minutes ago, snowman19 said: When you have a setup like we just had and you have goofball model runs showing snow in NYC, it’s obvious that you just completely and totally disregard them and go with reality, basic meteorology and physics. You don’t get midlevel low tracks like we just had along with the associated midlevel warm nose and have snow in New York City or anywhere close to New York City, anyone who believed that needs to go back to met school. Those models were on crack showing anything but just sleet and rain given those torched midlevel soundings. This was nothing more than a ping fest and an impressive ping/sleet fest at that I will admit, but still a sleet fest to rain none the less Agree. Except I don't think the models were that bad. It seemed clear what was going to happen for several days. I understand we live in a densely populated area so being 20 miles off on the 0c line (at multiple layers of the atmosphere) will make a large different to a lot of people but it doesn't mean the models were bad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 The models were not that bad. This was what I expected for a large chunk of the area. And Snowman was certainly not correct either. Lots of local ski areas reported 5+ inches before a change to sleet. It looks like winter in southern and northern Westchester this morning. Stop the bickering. This has been a decent winter so far. (Outside of December) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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