February 2022

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

how’s that possible, didn’t we hit 80 like a few years ago

i guess a wind direction thing

Yeah, Newark hit 80° in February 2018.  But areas to the east were cooler with more onshore flow. JFK and ISP beat their daily record highs today by 7° with the warm westerly flow. 
 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
0438 PM EST WED FEB 23 2022

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT KENNEDY NY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 69 WAS SET AT KENNEDY NY TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 62 SET IN 1990.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
0438 PM EST WED FEB 23 2022

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 68 WAS SET AT ISLIP NY TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 61 SET IN 2012.

[rclab]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

I guess the closest to that would be July 1977 in NYC if you count the 104° high followed  by a 58° low.
 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
1977-07-21	104	78
1977-07-22	88	68
1977-07-23	87	62
1977-07-24	90	70
1977-07-25	78	70
1977-07-26	82	62
1977-07-27	81	58

Thank you for the data. Within six days the highs and lows were 23 and 20 degrees apart, respectively.  That’s impressive enough. As always ….

[LoboLeader1]

Topped out at 68 here today, currently 49.

[Allsnow]

@donsutherland1 ensembles showing the Ao flipping…does it hold merit? 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Record warmth on Long Island with the westerly flow.

 

Farmingdale    MOSUNNY   65  54  67 W17       29.92F
MacArthur/ISP  CLOUDY    62  54  74 SW13      29.91F
Stony Brook      N/A     64  54  68 W6          N/A

JFK 68 degrees, definitely the warmest and nicest day of the entire winter.

I hope we get this kind of wind direction in the summer

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

All it takes is small ridging to set new records

It's effortless

and no dumb sea breeze

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

66 here. Downright balmy. Merrick Rd seems to be the balmy to just mild line. Barrier islands are in the mid 50s. 

JFK 68 AND NO SEA BREEZE I WANT THIS FOR THE SUMMER

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, Newark hit 80° in February 2018.  But areas to the east were cooler with more onshore flow. JFK and ISP beat their daily record highs today by 7° with the warm westerly flow. 
 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
0438 PM EST WED FEB 23 2022

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT KENNEDY NY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 69 WAS SET AT KENNEDY NY TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 62 SET IN 1990.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
0438 PM EST WED FEB 23 2022

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 68 WAS SET AT ISLIP NY TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 61 SET IN 2012.

JFK's record for the month and for the DJF period has to be around 75 isn't it?

 

[the_other_guy]

Bozeman.

Barely eeking out a 0F for the high

 

[wthrmn654]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

JFK's record for the month and for the DJF period has to be around 75 isn't it?

 

Why can't you multiquote! WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY

[donsutherland1]

44 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@donsutherland1 ensembles showing the Ao flipping…does it hold merit? 

It's looking promising. It also fits the timing of some recent cases where strongly positive February AO+ regimes broke down in March.

[donsutherland1]

Clouds yielded to sunshine and temperatures soared to unseasonably warm levels today. A number of locations reached or surpassed their existing daily records. Daily records included:

Atlantic City: 72° (tied record set in 1985 and tied in 2017)
Bangor: 65° (old record: 57°, 1984) ***New Monthly Record***
Boston: 69° (old record: 68°, 2017)
Bridgeport: 67° (old record: 60°, 2012)
Hartford: 71° (old record: 68°, 1990)
Islip: 68° (old record: 61°, 2012)
Manchester, NH: 68° (tied record set in 2017)
New Haven: 67° (old record: 57°, 2012)
New York City-JFK: 69° (old record: 62°, 1990)
New York City-LGA: 68° (old record: 66°, 1985)
Newark: 70° (old record: 68°, 1985)
Portland: 66° (old record: 61°, 1990)
Providence: 69° (old record: 66°, 2017)
White Plains: 67° (old record: 65°, 1985 and 1990)
Wilmington, DE: 74° (old record: 73°, 2017)
Worcester: 65° (old record: 64°, 2017)

In addition, Baltimore reached 76° and Washington, DC hit 77° today. Both temperatures fell just short of their daily record of 78°, which was set way back in 1874.

Cooler weather will return tomorrow. Late tomorrow night through Friday, interior sections of the Northeast will be in line for accumulating snow. A general 4"-8" with locally higher amounts of up to a foot is likely there.

Despite some GFS runs showing 4" or more snow for New York City, the forecast pattern generally argues against such an outcome. During the February 20-29, 1950-2021 period, 4/13 (31%) of 4" or greater snowstorms saw a positive AO. The evolution of synoptic details will determine the outcome and, at present, most of the guidance argues against a moderate snowfall in and around New York City. Instead a light snowfall, possibly in the 1"-3" range with some locally higher amounts is on the table prior to a changeover to sleet and then rain.

Overall, things remain on course for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures during that time. The warm pattern will likely begin to break down during the closing days of February. The closing days of February into the first week of March will be generally colder than normal. March could start with a sharp cold shot.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March.

The SOI was +5.00 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.801.

On February 21 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.616 (RMM). The February 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.464 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.1° (1.2° above normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Why can't you multiquote! WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY

It's easier to do when it's not this active (like in the middle of the night)

I literally get a bunch of notifications within a few seconds of each other during active times.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's looking promising. It also fits the timing of some recent cases where strongly positive February AO+ regimes broke down in March.

Don dont strongly positive regimes of this time generally last around 6 weeks or so before breaking down?

Also that 69 temp at JFK....was February 2018 the last time JFK hit 70 in February, and did it get to 75 that day there?

 

[LoboLeader1]

32 here as of 11PM

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

32 here as of 11PM

Yep starting to feel cold.  I wish this would've waited for the morning.

 

[LoboLeader1]

25 here as of 6:00AM, topped off at 68 yesterday.

[donsutherland1]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don dont strongly positive regimes of this time generally last around 6 weeks or so before breaking down?

Also that 69 temp at JFK....was February 2018 the last time JFK hit 70 in February, and did it get to 75 that day there?

 

The AO has been positive for 44 of the last 50 days.

JFK has only reached 70 on one occasion in February: 71 on February 27, 1997.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Clouds will increase and it will be much colder today. Snow will arrive in the northern Mid-Atlantic region tonight. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 37°

Newark: 37°

Philadelphia: 39°

Snow will change to sleet, freezing rain, and rain in much of the region early tomorrow. Interior sections will likely see 4”-8” with some locally higher amounts. 1”-2” is likely in and around New York City.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 44.1°; 15-Year: 44.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 45.1°; 15-Year: 45.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 46.5°; 15-Year: 46.3°

[bluewave]

ISP tied their all-time February highest temperature of 68°. The 69° at JFK was 2nd warmest for the month. EWR added another 70° in February which ranks as 6th warmest for the month. So all our local stations have recorded repeated monthly top ranking high temperatures in recent years. The 80° at Newark in 2018 was one of the most extreme monthly high temperatures for any time of the year. The flow off the colder ocean that year  kept the highs on Long Island lower. But the westerly flow yesterday allowed the most impressive records to occur on Long a Island.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2022	68	5
-	1976	68	0
2	1991	67	0
3	2017	65	0
4	2018	64	0
-	2016	64	0
5	2012	63	0
-	2002	63	0
-	1997	63	0
-	1985	63	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1997	71	0
2	2022	69	5
3	2017	68	0
-	1991	68	0
4	2011	67	0
-	2008	67	0
-	1976	67	0
5	2018	65	0
-	1996	65	0
-	1972	65	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2018	80	0
2	1949	76	0
3	2017	74	0
-	1997	74	0
-	1954	74	0
4	1985	73	0
5	2011	71	0
6	2022	70	5
-	1999	70	0
-	1939	70	0

[CIK62]

The last 5 days of February are averaging  33degs.(28/39) or -5.

Month to date is  38.3[+2.9].       February should at  37.4[+1.5].

Reached 69 here yesterday at 3:40pm.

Today: 35-38, wind e., cloudy with mixed mess by midnight.      T to 2" of snow.

32*(48%RH) here at 6am.     31* at 7am.       34* at Noon.       38* at 4pm.

[MJO812]

From 66 degrees yesterday to 30 right now 

[EastonSN+]

This run shows too much suppression. We actually need a SE ridge otherwise cold and dry 

I want cold and SNOWY or WARM and dry. Cold and Dry is the worst

[EastonSN+]

The GEFS likely got colder, blockier due to the MJO wave getting weaker on the plot 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The GEFS likely got colder, blockier due to the MJO wave getting weaker on the plot 

It will continue to get weaker. The io maps continue to die in IO. 

[SnoSki14]

31 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This run shows too much suppression. We actually need a SE ridge otherwise cold and dry 

I want cold and SNOWY or WARM and dry. Cold and Dry is the worst

You want to suppress the SE ridge as much as possible this time of year and models often underestimate the strength of the SE ridge.

This would actually be a good look if it verified. Models showing more of a -AO by mid March so winter may not be over just yet.

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The models have really been underestimating the strength of the -PNA  day 11-15. Notice how much stronger the -PNA and SE Ridge is now for the first week of March. So the current day 15 forecasts may too cold. 

New run 

Old run

 

 

What do you make of the GEFS moving to a more suppressed SE ridge on the LR?

I feel like the timeframe you are showing above is more about a storm tracking further to the west than an actual SE ridge flex.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The models have really been underestimating the strength of the -PNA  day 11-15. Notice how much stronger the -PNA and SE Ridge is now for the first week of March. So the current day 15 forecasts may too cold. 

New run 

Old run

 

 

Because the models keep trying to bring the mjo out of P3/4 but the convection isn’t moving. We probably see a cooler second half of March with Pv destruction and cooler mjo phases 

[Allsnow]

47 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

What do you make of the GEFS moving to a more suppressed SE ridge on the LR?

I feel like the timeframe you are showing above is more about a storm tracking further to the west than an actual SE ridge flex.

Exactly. The weekend of 5/6th was always a cutter risk. In the 11-15 day certain features will be muted until they get closer 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 0z EPS was stronger with SE Ridge from 240 to 360 hrs than the GEFS.

 

 

 

Yeah it seems like the EPS and GEFS keep alternating positions on this.

I just feel that with the cold on our side of the hemisphere we will have cutters giving us temp spikes followed by cold shots. Does not look to me like a true March 2012 warm period.

December was a great example of a chilly outcome despite an RNA. 

To me a high of 48 degrees is not warm.