February 2022

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Temps same timeframe. 

One good thing about this look is although it's definitely a "cutter" look similar to the storm coming this Friday, in the look below there would be a deeper cold layer in advance of the storm.

Most likely a few 1 to 3 2 to 4 then mix rain scenarios.

 

this looks to be a month where we get some accumulating snow but no big snowstorms.  We'll be lucky to get a 6" snowstorm....this looks like a few 1-3 or 2-4 events.  I dont think we will get to double digit snowfall in March.  Maybe near average snowfall.

Does anyone actually like snow changing to rain scenarios?  I dont....it might as well be all rain or just be sunny and warm in that case.

 

[LibertyBell]

36 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

With that comes a storm threat. The op crushed Boston 

Oh the March 2nd storm is back lol

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

this looks to be a month where we get some accumulating snow but no big snowstorms.  We'll be lucky to get a 6" snowstorm....this looks like a few 1-3 or 2-4 events.  I dont think we will get to double digit snowfall in March.  Maybe near average snowfall.

Does anyone actually like snow changing to rain scenarios?  I dont....it might as well be all rain or just be sunny and warm in that case.

 

Yeah it's more of the same like this Friday, and yes likely light to moderate across the forum.

For me it's about tow things. 1.) Kids play in the snow which this is not great for and 2.) I want to be able to continue to say "only 6 below average snowfall seasons this century".

Therefore for me get me enough snow any way I can get it to get me to my 30 to 35 area range.

Need 11.5.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

The kicker coming into the West Coast and +AO suppress the southern stream. 

 

Is there a storm coming right after that showing up on the Euro?  March 2nd seems to be showing up on some models.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah it's more of the same like this Friday, and yes likely light to moderate across the forum.

For me it's about tow things. 1.) Kids play in the snow which this is not great for and 2.) I want to be able to continue to say "only 6 below average snowfall seasons this century".

Therefore for me get me enough snow any way I can get it to get me to my 30 to 35 are range.

Need 11.5.

Oh yes you have some work to do.  I need about 5 inches to get to average (using JFK numbers)

Based on my own record keeping it's already near average here maybe 2-3 inches short.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be exceptionally mild. Temperatures will soar into the 60s across much of the region. Some areas could approach or reach 70°.

Afterward, cooler weather will return. Late Thursday night through Friday, interior sections of the Northeast will be in line for accumulating snow. A moderate to perhaps significant snowfall there is possible.

Despite some GFS runs showing 4" or more snow for New York City, the forecast pattern generally argues against such an outcome. During the February 20-29, 1950-2021 period, 4/13 (31%) of 4" or greater snowstorms saw a positive AO. The evolution of synoptic details will determine the outcome and, at present, most of the guidance argues against a moderate snowfall in and around New York City. Instead a light snowfall, possibly in the 1"-3" range with some locally higher amounts is on the table prior to a changeover to sleet and then rain.

Overall, things remain on course for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures during that time. The warm pattern will likely begin to break down during the closing days of February. The closing days of February into the first week of March will be generally colder than normal. March could start with a sharp cold shot.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March.

The SOI was +13.06 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.455.

On February 20 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.465 (RMM). The February 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.585 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.2° (1.3° above normal).

 

[bluewave]

Pretty impressive to see 60° readings north to POU this early in the morning.
 

Central Park   CLOUDY    61  54  77 SW6       29.94S
World Trd Ctr  NOT AVBL
Bronx Lehman C   N/A     61  55  82 SW8         N/A
LaGuardia Arpt CLOUDY    60  54  80 SW8       29.91S
Poughkeepsie   CLOUDY    60  54  80 S7
       

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Clouds will give way to sunshine. It will be very warm. Parts of the region will approach or set new daily record high temperatures. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 66°

Newark: 66°

Philadelphia: 70°

Colder air will return tomorrow. Wintry weather is likely on Friday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 43.9°; 15-Year: 44.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 44.8°; 15-Year: 45.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 46.2°; 15-Year: 46.1°

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Pretty impressive to see 60° readings north to POU this early in the morning.
 

Central Park   CLOUDY    61  54  77 SW6       29.94S
World Trd Ctr  NOT AVBL
Bronx Lehman C   N/A     61  55  82 SW8         N/A
LaGuardia Arpt CLOUDY    60  54  80 SW8       29.91S
Poughkeepsie   CLOUDY    60  54  80 S7
       

Is this going to be the warmest day of the entire winter?  Met winter, I mean.

 

[CIK62]

The last 6 days of February are averaging 35degs.(27/42), or -2.

Month to date is  37.7[+2.4].       February should end at  37.1[+1.2].

Reached 58 at 11pm. here yesterday.

Today: 62-66, cloudy, wind w. to n. and breezy, 30 by tomorrow AM.

T to 4" of snow before being washed away Thurs./Fri.       0Z GFS   COBB Chart for LGA:       The NAM had no snow here, just rain mostly.

220225/0300Z  51  15006KT  37.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
220225/0400Z  52  13006KT  36.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01   48|  0| 52
220225/0500Z  53  13007KT  35.7F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04   55|  0| 45
220225/0600Z  54  15006KT  31.9F  SNOW   10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.038   10:1|  0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220225/0700Z  55  12005KT  31.2F  SNOW   10:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.078   10:1|  1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16  100|  0|  0
220225/0800Z  56  10006KT  31.0F  SNOW    8:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104    9:1|  2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26  100|  0|  0
220225/0900Z  57  07006KT  31.2F  SNOW   10:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098    9:1|  3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36  100|  0|  0
220225/1000Z  58  09005KT  31.5F  SNOW    9:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.075    9:1|  3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44  100|  0|  0
220225/1100Z  59  07006KT  32.1F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.14|| 0.00|| 0.068    9:1|  3.7|| 0.14|| 0.00|| 0.50   10| 90|  0
220225/1200Z  60  09008KT  32.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.183    9:1|  3.7|| 0.14|| 0.00|| 0.69    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220225/1300Z  61  10008KT  32.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.146    9:1|  3.7|| 0.14|| 0.00|| 0.83    0|  0|100
220225/1400Z  62  08009KT  32.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.139    9:1|  3.7|| 0.14|| 0.00|| 0.97    0|  0|100
220225/1500Z  63  09005KT  32.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.106    9:1|  3.7|| 0.14|| 0.00|| 1.08    0|  0|100
220225/1600Z  64  11003KT  32.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119    9:1|  3.7|| 0.14|| 0.00|| 1.20    0|  0|100
220225/1700Z  65  VRB01KT  32.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017    9:1|  3.7|| 0.14|| 0.00|| 1.21    0|  0|100
220225/1800Z  66  31005KT  33.2F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    9:1|  3.7|| 0.14|| 0.00|| 1.22    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220225/1900Z  67  VRB02KT  32.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    9:1|  3.7|| 0.14|| 0.00|| 1.22    0|  0|  0

60*(91%RH) here at 6am.{was 51 at 1am}      62* at 10am.        63* at Noon.       64* at 1pm.      67* at 2pm.        68* at 2:30pm.      Reached 69* at 3:40pm.      Down to 50* by 7:30pm.         39* by 11pm.

[EasternLI]

Sunday/Monday PNA spike has trended to flatten out. Shame. Looked halfway decent from a distance on ensembles. So looks like the northern stream just crushes the southern vort now. Instead of being able to dig more and turn the southern one up the coast. 

[Volcanic Winter]

With respect to temperatures how are the next two weeks looking overall? 

[EastonSN+]

This wave is really amplifying. There goes our spring with phase 7 and 8 likely late March and early April.

Probably a late season snow event as well.

Go figure.

 

[EasternLI]

Here's the end of the EPS from 00z.

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 57 here after a low of 48 overnite. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

Here's the end of the EPS from 00z.

EPS looks much better than the GEFS at this point. 

It can snow in the GEFS look BUT they would be sloppy events and favor northern areas IMO. Similar to Friday.

[forkyfork]

looks like most of the cold gets dumped west of us thank god

[EasternLI]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

EPS looks much better than the GEFS at this point. 

It can snow in the GEFS look BUT they would be sloppy events and favor northern areas IMO. Similar to Friday.

I was hoping for some prolonged warm weather myself. Don't really see that with that look. Probably ends up more back and forth for a while. I'm all set for snow. This season has met my expectations locally. Interior areas could use a good month though. I have this gut feeling that March this year could cook up some sort of big storm at some point though too. 

[wthrmn654]

Just need a 1 or 2 week stretch of dry weather so we can install the replacement outdoor exercise station. So annoying it staying so wet. 

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I was hoping for some prolonged warm weather myself. Don't really see that with that look. Probably ends up more back and forth for a while. I'm all set for snow. This season has met my expectations locally. Interior areas could use a good month though. I have this gut feeling that March this year could cook up some sort of big storm at some point though too. 

Yeah phase 7 likely by the 15th to 20th timeframe can wreak havoc.

Once I reach average snowfall I want a full torch.

[rclab]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Continuation of our big temperature swings pattern. Turing colder into early next week. Then another SE Ridge warm up first week of March. 
 

 

 

Good morning BW. Is it possible for a pattern of this nature to continue into the warm season? It’s difficult to imagine a 7 to 10 day period in July/August  recording highs of 66 and 96. As always ….

[EastonSN+]

41 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

looks like most of the cold gets dumped west of us thank god

I would rather get the cold now than 2nd half of the month or April.

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning BW. Is it possible for a pattern of this nature to continue into the warm season? It’s difficult to imagine a 7 to 10 day period in July/August  recording highs of 66 and 96. As always ….

I guess the closest to that would be July 1977 in NYC if you count the 104° high followed  by a 58° low.
 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
1977-07-21	104	78
1977-07-22	88	68
1977-07-23	87	62
1977-07-24	90	70
1977-07-25	78	70
1977-07-26	82	62
1977-07-27	81	58

[MJO812]

38 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah phase 7 likely by the 15th to 20th timeframe can wreak havoc.

Once I reach average snowfall I want a full torch.

Signs of the AO going negative 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

looks like most of the cold gets dumped west of us thank god

Yup. 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

This wave is really amplifying. There goes our spring with phase 7 and 8 likely late March and early April.

Probably a late season snow event as well.

Go figure.

 

Like clockwork 

Bring on March and April snow

[EastonSN+]

47 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. 

To me this is terrible. Just delays the inevitable cold and dreary early spring. If you look the GEFS you will see the beginning of the change at the end (likely following the MJO progression to 7).

[donsutherland1]

At Bangor, the 11 am temperature was 62. That surpassed the daily record of 57 from 1984 and the longstanding monthly record of 60 from February 21, 1937.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Signs of the AO going negative 

Maybe it’ll make for a chilly, rainy end of March lol Spring is coming 

[SnoSki14]

58 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

To me this is terrible. Just delays the inevitable cold and dreary early spring. If you look the GEFS you will see the beginning of the change at the end (likely following the MJO progression to 7).

I think this is often exaggerated. Sure there could be chilly days but it's pretty likely we average AN overall.

Average temps are rapidly going up by then