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February 2022


cleetussnow
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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS has really been leading the way this winter on these big North Pacific blocking intervals. It spotted the late December shift going into January and then the GEFS eventually caught on . The GEFS is correcting toward the stronger EPS idea in recent runs. 

EPS

4F034A68-FBC5-4269-BBD1-578C2FD35629.thumb.png.d2a4eee9791d2af7246e1681c540c11b.png
 

GEFS has been struggling 

New run more like the Euro

 

B526F848-1F3B-4EF3-9FDD-309CF918209D.thumb.png.c9585b79ff99edb9cf24ca670413079d.png
 

Older run too weak

 

C08BE127-F11E-4F83-9297-78CF561CE61F.thumb.png.59dc3ee93cd6f1aa03526d23176b267f.png

 

The look on the EPS definitely caught my eye this morning. These sorts of things have often come with the legitimate threats this year. So maybe we can cook up something around that time. Could be interesting. 

1165316390_index(37).thumb.png.69134fa481c20d11213ec2bfd6dded30.png

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Morning thoughts…

Bright sunshine will give way to afternoon clouds in parts of the region. Snow showers and a heavier snow squall are possible. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 30 and lower 40s in most of the region ahead of the arrival of the colder air. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 42°

Newark: 43°

Philadelphia: 47°

Tomorrow fair and cold.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 43.0°; 15-Year: 43.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 43.9°; 15-Year: 44.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 45.2°; 15-Year: 45.0°

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21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's why the Euro MJO is correct here

 

There are a few different schools of thought on that. One is that the Euro RMM index is weaker than the GFS. But the VP anomalies for both models are identical. So I am not so sure this is a MJO difference. The MJO has been stuck in phase 3 all month. But the La Niña MJO composite shows a much different pattern than we have been getting. This  leads me to believe that the MJO is not currently having much influence on the pattern. Remember, the MJO is only one part of the climate system. Sometimes it’s the dominant player and other times it isn’t. 

Actual pattern much different than MJO would suggest

 

416DD0CF-0522-44F8-AEAF-9EFD170BCC7C.gif.bb49cc9c7ae5ca5249b51625b8b66467.gif

E1E657EE-4303-4C2D-A90D-5644BFCC8903.thumb.png.685d638d4c2d6a50644bb966e789f9de.png

472429CC-C620-4B85-ADD6-189352270F23.gif.45ac3f2a45692d17383111f6490d127e.gif

 

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There are a few different schools of thought on that. One is that the Euro RMM index is weaker than the GFS. But the VP anomalies for both models are identical. So I am not so sure this is a MJO difference. The MJO has been stuck in phase 3 all month. But the La Niña MJO composite shows a much different pattern than we have been getting. This  leads me to believe that the MJO is not currently having much influence on the pattern. Remember, the MJO is only one part of the climate system. Sometimes it’s the dominant player and other times it isn’t. 

Actual pattern much different than MJO would suggest

 

416DD0CF-0522-44F8-AEAF-9EFD170BCC7C.gif.bb49cc9c7ae5ca5249b51625b8b66467.gif

E1E657EE-4303-4C2D-A90D-5644BFCC8903.thumb.png.685d638d4c2d6a50644bb966e789f9de.png

472429CC-C620-4B85-ADD6-189352270F23.gif.45ac3f2a45692d17383111f6490d127e.gif

 

Apologies if I am being obtuse, however could the MJO be showing an El nino response? Seems like the past few years we have been saying El nino years have been acting like la Nina and vice versa. I know may not sound logical, however what does an El nino phase 3 look like?

Just a hobbyist, but if we are getting minimal at best Arctic influence and mitigated MJO influence, what other drivers are out there?

 

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56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There are a few different schools of thought on that. One is that the Euro RMM index is weaker than the GFS. But the VP anomalies for both models are identical. So I am not so sure this is a MJO difference. The MJO has been stuck in phase 3 all month. But the La Niña MJO composite shows a much different pattern than we have been getting. This  leads me to believe that the MJO is not currently having much influence on the pattern. Remember, the MJO is only one part of the climate system. Sometimes it’s the dominant player and other times it isn’t. 

Actual pattern much different than MJO would suggest

 

416DD0CF-0522-44F8-AEAF-9EFD170BCC7C.gif.bb49cc9c7ae5ca5249b51625b8b66467.gif

E1E657EE-4303-4C2D-A90D-5644BFCC8903.thumb.png.685d638d4c2d6a50644bb966e789f9de.png

472429CC-C620-4B85-ADD6-189352270F23.gif.45ac3f2a45692d17383111f6490d127e.gif

 

Yeah, I think this time the MJO is taking a backseat too. That's a little odd to me given the QBO, but that's a different story. The upcoming proged pattern for instance, I think that's more about the wave break event. Maybe the strat is having some say too? Not sure. There's a little disturbance about to occur up there. Like you pointed out, it's not always all about the MJO. Other factors always need to be kept in mind as well. Sometimes those factors dominate. It all works together. That's a very important point there.

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_15.thumb.png.f948ec9ba79eeb5925aa653006468d9f.png

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7 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah, I think this time the MJO is taking a backseat too. That's a little odd to me given the QBO, but that's a different story. The upcoming proged pattern for instance, I think that's more about the wave break event. Maybe the strat is having some say too? Not sure. There's a little disturbance about to occur up there. Like you pointed out, it's not always all about the MJO. Other factors always need to be kept in mind as well. Sometimes those factors dominate. It all works together. That's a very important point there.

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_15.thumb.png.f948ec9ba79eeb5925aa653006468d9f.png

Exactly. The waves breaking and jet retraction 

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2 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah, I think this time the MJO is taking a backseat too. That's a little odd to me given the QBO, but that's a different story. The upcoming proged pattern for instance, I think that's more about the wave break event. Maybe the strat is having some say too? Not sure. There's a little disturbance about to occur up there. Like you pointed out, it's not always all about the MJO. Other factors always need to be kept in mind as well. Sometimes those factors dominate. It all works together. That's a very important point there.

 

Yeah, this wave break is leading to the -EPO +PNA block that the models are advertising. We saw something similar in early December with record WPAC low and typhoon a few days later. That locked in the record Aleutian Ridge -PNA pattern for all of December. So these wave breaks are key players in our weather patterns. It would be great if we had an artificial intelligence weather model which could identify these wave breaks months in advance. 
 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this wave break is leading to the -EPO +PNA block that the models are advertising. We saw something similar in early December with record WPAC low and typhoon a few days later. That locked in the record Aleutian Ridge -PNA pattern for all of December. So these wave breaks are key players in our weather patterns. It would be great if we had an artificial intelligence weather model which could identify these wave breaks months in advance. 
 

Yeah, that low north of Japan will be further west to help pump the epo block 

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The GEFS I think continues to be too ridgy in the SE past D10...that probably hurts us somewhat as far as storm chances as the EPS pattern is more cold dry.  Its sort of unusual in shorter wavelength pattern to see a bootleg SER try to flex like that with an EPO ridge and the PV basically in E Canada so the EPS makes more sense to me given it'll be March

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WRT today’s snow showers/squalls there is only some light snow showers reaching the ground along I84 in northeastern PA with the first round.  The activity seen on radar in the first band in central PA is mostly not reaching the ground in places to the south and west of the Scranton/Wilkes Barre area at this time.

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12 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

WRT today’s snow showers/squalls there is only some light snow showers reaching the ground along I84 in northeastern PA with the first round.  The activity seen on radar in the first band in central PA is mostly not reaching the ground in places to the south and west of the Scranton/Wilkes Barre area at this time.

Yeah, it’s the 2nd squall behind that one producing the brief blizzard conditions.

 

 

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17 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Plows are out. Just measured an inch on the driveway. Amazing. 

D58D8CE2-08EF-40DF-9363-7C3CE4269E5F.jpeg

It looks like you will end up with more snow from this morning’s activity vs this afternoon.  The much advertised snow squall is continuing to the east and is moving across the I81 corridor in PA.  The history of this feature is that it drops 0.2 to 0.4” in short order as shown on the HRRR.  I just watched it pass one of the webcams along I80 just NW of Hazleton.  Visibility drops quickly from 1/2 mile to about 1/16 mile and then back to 1/2 mile within just a few minutes.  This is a quick hitter!

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