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February 2022


cleetussnow
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12 minutes ago, larrye said:

Seems like all of a sudden you only need H5 favorable with no surface support for there to be a storm now. I heard this all week long leading up to the last storm also.

Yea and NYC and east ended up with 10-20+ inches when surface depictions were showing 2-3 inches when H5 was screaming something bigger.

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As with just about every storm threat this year, we need the southern vort max to round the base of the trof - we need PVA on the downstream side of the trof to initiate a negative tilt, raise heights downstream sooner, and keep the zone of high baroclinicity closer to the coast instead of offshore. This would enable a SLP center to form in the SE or near the coast instead of offshore. If we have to wait for follow-up northern stream shortwaves to sharpen the trof, the incipient SLP will be too far offshore to have an impact.

We're really missing southern stream involvement. This positively tilted, lagging vortmax crap shown on every model is not going to cut it. I think we had an EC run or two a few days ago and a GFS run a day ago that almost worked. But nothing since has really been close.

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Look at the UK at H5. Totally different height field compared to GFS and CMC. It drops a PV lobe down into the midwest. Much higher impact potential.

I feel like we've seen the UK have these kinds of southern PV solutions in the mid-range before. It looks like a low likelihood outcome. But for now I'll take any model solution that has a higher ceiling than the weak, positively tilted coastal slider that seems predestined. 

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3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Look at the UK at H5. Totally different height field compared to GFS and CMC. It drops a PV lobe down into the midwest. Much higher impact potential.

I feel like we've seen the UK have these kinds of southern PV solutions in the mid-range before. It looks like a low likelihood outcome. But for now I'll take any model solution that has a higher ceiling than the weak, positively tilted coastal slider that seems predestined. 

Canadian - GFS - Ukie at 0Z all show the potential - now lets see if they continue to do so the next few runs...........Now waiting for the 0Z Euro....

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If the western ridge stays back and allows this storm to develop and come up the coast you'd almost automatically have a higher ceiling than with the last one because there is no kicker. There is no clipper or notable northern stream system moving in right behind this. It can take its sweet time. As long as that ridge out west stays put.

WX/PT

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3 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

If the western ridge stays back and allows this storm to develop and come up the coast you'd almost automatically have a higher ceiling than with the last one because there is no kicker. There is no clipper or notable northern stream system moving in right behind this. It can take its sweet time. As long as that ridge out west stays put.

WX/PT

well we have some time-- also I read that the pattern should stay good until PD?  So we have until the 21st or so?

 

 

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