Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

February 2022


cleetussnow
 Share

Recommended Posts

A major SSW during the 1st week of March would be a complete waste for the snow lovers. There is a big lag between a legit SSW and a tropospheric response, usually a matter of weeks after….the 2018 one that happened in mid February took almost 3 weeks to reflect down to the surface. An early March SSW wouldn’t take effect until late March and by then winter is over and done, all she wrote, fat lady singing, say goodbye and goodnight, it’s over Johnny, bring down the curtain, game over for everyone south of central and northern New England at that point, not to mention it would destroy spring (late March, April, May) as cold, miserable and rainy 

  • Weenie 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A major SSW during the 1st week of March would be a complete waste for the snow lovers. There is a big lag between a legit SSW and a tropospheric response, usually a matter of weeks after….the 2018 one that happened in mid February took almost 3 weeks to reflect down to the surface. An early March SSW wouldn’t take effect until late March and by then winter is over and done, all she wrote, fat lady singing, say goodbye and goodnight, it’s over Johnny, bring down the curtain, game over for everyone south of central and northern New England at that point, not to mention it would destroy spring (late March, April, May) as cold, miserable and rainy 

Not true. On April 2, 2018 I had 6" of snow right on the coast. April 7, 2003 7-8 inches, late March 2018 had 18-20" of snow on parts of Long Island and close to a foot right on the coast, etc. Not saying it would be true here but late Mar/early Apr can definitely produce near the coast in the right setup.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

A major SSW during the 1st week of March would be a complete waste for the snow lovers. There is a big lag between a legit SSW and a tropospheric response, usually a matter of weeks after….the 2018 one that happened in mid February took almost 3 weeks to reflect down to the surface. An early March SSW wouldn’t take effect until late March and by then winter is over and done, all she wrote, fat lady singing, say goodbye and goodnight, it’s over Johnny, bring down the curtain, game over for everyone south of central and northern New England at that point, not to mention it would destroy spring (late March, April, May) as cold, miserable and rainy 

135f9533947efac134f55a04d35b2c3a.jpg


.
  • Like 2
  • Haha 2
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

58 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A major SSW during the 1st week of March would be a complete waste for the snow lovers. There is a big lag between a legit SSW and a tropospheric response, usually a matter of weeks after….the 2018 one that happened in mid February took almost 3 weeks to reflect down to the surface. An early March SSW wouldn’t take effect until late March and by then winter is over and done, all she wrote, fat lady singing, say goodbye and goodnight, it’s over Johnny, bring down the curtain, game over for everyone south of central and northern New England at that point, not to mention it would destroy spring (late March, April, May) as cold, miserable and rainy 

I had snow in early April a few times

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

A major SSW during the 1st week of March would be a complete waste for the snow lovers. There is a big lag between a legit SSW and a tropospheric response, usually a matter of weeks after….the 2018 one that happened in mid February took almost 3 weeks to reflect down to the surface. An early March SSW wouldn’t take effect until late March and by then winter is over and done, all she wrote, fat lady singing, say goodbye and goodnight, it’s over Johnny, bring down the curtain, game over for everyone south of central and northern New England at that point, not to mention it would destroy spring (late March, April, May) as cold, miserable and rainy 

giphy.gif?cid=790b76116787b7237a29632085

  • Like 3
  • Haha 2
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Yes, a complete anomalous/fluke event can certainly happen, sure, but definitely not the norm and any snowfall in late March/April is gone the next day at our latitude 

we average around an inch of snow in April don't we? It's a once in decade event to get a decent April snowfall, so it's rare but not unique.

October 2011 was unique.

I think we've had one decent April snowfall in every decade I've been around.

I'm just going by JFK numbers (snowfalls of 4 inches or higher)

April 1982..... 8 inches

April 1996..... 4 inches

April 2003...... 6 inches

April 2018........ 6 inches

 

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Not true. On April 2, 2018 I had 6" of snow right on the coast. April 7, 2003 7-8 inches, late March 2018 had 18-20" of snow on parts of Long Island and close to a foot right on the coast, etc. Not saying it would be true here but late Mar/early Apr can definitely produce near the coast in the right setup.

We've had a good event in April every decade I've been around.

4 inches or more.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So how many days were there between the SSW in 2018 and the first wintry event after that?  Let's do some calculations and transpose that interval onto the projected date of the SSW this March and when the first wintry event may occur after that?

Let's say it's 20 days....  so we're talking about right after the Equinox to the middle of April to get something decent....we could have two wintry events in that time.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Not true. On April 2, 2018 I had 6" of snow right on the coast. April 7, 2003 7-8 inches, late March 2018 had 18-20" of snow on parts of Long Island and close to a foot right on the coast, etc. Not saying it would be true here but late Mar/early Apr can definitely produce near the coast in the right setup.

That March 2018 storm was insane!  I was living on LI at the time.  18” of fluff that seemed to come outta nowhere!  This was my driveway the next morning.

Late-season “fluke” events become much more likely following a SSW.  Can’t be ruled out if that’s what we end up seeing.

 

72A7EA55-D76D-4D6C-A433-CD01042BCD7D.jpeg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

A major SSW during the 1st week of March would be a complete waste for the snow lovers. There is a big lag between a legit SSW and a tropospheric response, usually a matter of weeks after….the 2018 one that happened in mid February took almost 3 weeks to reflect down to the surface. An early March SSW wouldn’t take effect until late March and by then winter is over and done, all she wrote, fat lady singing, say goodbye and goodnight, it’s over Johnny, bring down the curtain, game over for everyone south of central and northern New England at that point, not to mention it would destroy spring (late March, April, May) as cold, miserable and rainy 

giphy.webp?cid=6c09b952e13a54b25c1e680c6

  • Like 2
  • Haha 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Parts of Long Island already have as much snow at the beginning of February as all of last year. Most years since 02-03 were over 30”. This is a first for a 20 year period. The few years that were below average were under 15”. So no years in the middle between more extreme highs and lows. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Season
Mean 0.0 0.5 5.5 13.2 12.1 6.8 0.3 T 37.3
2021-2022 0.0 T 0.3 31.8 M M M M 32.1
2020-2021 T 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 0.0 33.5
2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T T 6.8
2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 0.0 12.8
2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 0.0 65.9
2016-2017 T T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 0.0 39.3
2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 0.0 41.4
2014-2015 0.0 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 0.0 63.7
2013-2014 0.0 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 0.0 63.7
2012-2013 0.0 4.2 0.6 3.3 31.4 7.4 0.0 0.0 46.9
2011-2012 0.3 0.0 T 3.8 0.6 T 0.0 0.0 4.7
2010-2011 0.0 T 14.9 34.4 3.9 2.1 T 0.0 55.3
2009-2010 0.0 0.0 25.3 6.4 21.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 53.8
2008-2009 0.0 T 10.4 8.9 3.3 13.6 T 0.0 36.2
2007-2008 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.8 7.3 T 0.0 0.0 10.7
2006-2007 0.0 T 0.0 1.0 4.2 3.8 T 0.0 9.0
2005-2006 0.0 0.5 7.6 4.7 19.9 3.2 0.1 0.0 36.0
2004-2005 0.0 T 7.0 21.5 17.0 13.3 0.0 0.0 58.8

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

So how many days were there between the SSW in 2018 and the first wintry event after that?  Let's do some calculations and transpose that interval onto the projected date of the SSW this March and when the first wintry event may occur after that?

Let's say it's 20 days....  so we're talking about right after the Equinox to the middle of April to get something decent....we could have two wintry events in that time.

 

This is exactly what I was pondering. Is it a hard rule approx. 3 weeks or can it vary. When did last year's SSWE occur, as we started realizing success Feb 1.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Eduardo said:

That March 2018 storm was insane!  I was living on LI at the time.  18” of fluff that seemed to come outta nowhere!  This was my driveway the next morning.

Late-season “fluke” events become much more likely following a SSW.  Can’t be ruled out if that’s what we end up seeing.

 

72A7EA55-D76D-4D6C-A433-CD01042BCD7D.jpeg

March/April 2018 was the snowiest March onward year of my life.

Storm totals

10 (medium sized tree fell on my house)

2.5

9.5

6 (April).

Absolutely insane.

If the exact same scenario played out the last 2 would be in scope tim wise. 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...