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January 28-29 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Obs/Discussion


mappy
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10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

You've been a fan of this pre-coastal stuff for a few days now - does it mean anything at all that the short-range models got the start time really wrong? Is this an earlier start, earlier finish kind of deal or is this "bonus."

We will see. Ascent is certainly great right now over MD and NoVA. We are seeing the radar expansion pretty quickly. We have colder air filtering from the north and mid-level ascent positioned over the area due to a sharpening trough axis upstream. The divergence pattern right now is favoring our area into VA. Expect the radar to billow up over the next several hrs. The key is getting into the banding features that are developing. Get into those for a few hrs and you can get an inch or two if you are fortunate. HRRR is struggling and so is the RAP. Could be a little surprise. It’s not gonna be warning level for this area. Advisory snowfall is looking good though. Enjoy the beautiful flakes. It’s gonna be a pretty snowfall and great for flake pictures :)

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

We will see. Ascent is certainly great right now over MD and NoVA. We are seeing the radar expansion pretty quickly. We have colder air filtering from the north and mid-level ascent positioned over the area due to a sharpening trough axis upstream. The divergence pattern right now is favoring our area into VA. Expect the radar to billow up over the next several hrs. The key is getting into the banding features that are developing. Get into those for a few hrs and you can get an inch or two if you are fortunate. HRRR is struggling and so is the RAP. Could be a little surprise. It’s not gonna be warning level for this area. Advisory snowfall is looking good though. Enjoy the beautiful flakes. It’s gonna be a pretty snowfall and great for flake pictures :)

Can you talk dirty for my area next? TIA!

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9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

We will see. Ascent is certainly great right now over MD and NoVA. We are seeing the radar expansion pretty quickly. We have colder air filtering from the north and mid-level ascent positioned over the area due to a sharpening trough axis upstream. The divergence pattern right now is favoring our area into VA. Expect the radar to billow up over the next several hrs. The key is getting into the banding features that are developing. Get into those for a few hrs and you can get an inch or two if you are fortunate. HRRR is struggling and so is the RAP. Could be a little surprise. It’s not gonna be warning level for this area. Advisory snowfall is looking good though. Enjoy the beautiful flakes. It’s gonna be a pretty snowfall and great for flake pictures :)

I think underplayed maybe, you tell me, is even though just 1-3” when we get into the 15-20 mph gusting over 30 to infrequently 40 then blowing and even drifting will be prevalent ?

I May have  to issue a Keep   Your Ass Inside  Warning for Sat night as even though gusts don’t count in wind chill there’s going to be some -10 or colder peaks. 

 

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not really accumulating much here.  been inside all day because my current project is tedious, but there were some calls by posters here about temps being a potential issue today for accumulation and that's been nailed.  great call so far on that.  still some solid snow tv here.  gonna step outside and see what's going on.

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1 minute ago, MDSnowyWxTracker said:

From the models, definitely wasn't suppose to set up with this band over top of me. Heavier snow at the moment in Urbana. Will see how long it lasts.

20220128_150202-1.jpg

i was just kidding about the accumulation part then.  guess rates are important lol.

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5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I think underplayed maybe, you tell me, is even though just 1-3” when we get into the 15-20 mph gusting over 30 to infrequently 40 then blowing and even drifting will be prevalent ?

I May have  to issue a Keep   Your Ass Inside  Warning for Sat night as even though gusts don’t count in wind chill there’s going to be some -10 or colder peaks. 

 

I think the totals and everything will be in line with the current forecast. I think the feeling of, “Freezing your ass off” will be coming into play mightily tomorrow. People are gonna not want to go outside with those wind chills. Ooof

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1 minute ago, 87storms said:

i'm right on the northwest edge of that band between downtown frederick and germantown.  very showery system so far.  hopefully that builds north a bit, but i'm not overly confident in that.

For the most part it hasnt really started laying on the roadways and pavements.  Though some surfaces, like steps and edges of pavement giving way now. But I dont know how long this band will last. lol  It is 36 degrees here.

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