2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[GaWx]

 I'm wary of the GFS overdevelopment bias this season in the southern Caribbean off of South America and it could be coming into play here. 
 

 The 12Z ICON doesn't have actual TCG until the C Caribbean and it isn't more than a TS as of hour 180. That's the best support the GFS has. And sometimes the ICON has overdone things this season. The 12Z CMC has only a very weak low and no TCG. The 12Z UK, Euro, and JMA have very little til a weak low in the SW Car. That's the part of the Car that I have more interest in for TCG (next week). These model wars make these forecasting threads extra fun!

 The GFS is developing this at least partially from vorticity located now per the model near 9N, 50W. I wonder how it is looking there right now.

[GaWx]

 Regarding the now cherry nearing Bermuda, aka Invest 94L, the Euro/UKMET/GFS takes the LLC to the Cape Cod to Maine corridor Wednesday. Here's the relevant part of the TWO that indicates it is now likely to be designated a TD shortly:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Satellite and Bermuda radar images indicate that the low pressure
system located about 100 miles east-southeast of Bermuda now has a
well-defined center and is producing a relatively concentrated area
of showers and thunderstorms. If the thunderstorm activity
persists near the center, the disturbance will likely become
a tropical depression later today or tonight while it moves
west-northwestward and passes near Bermuda. After that time, the
system is expected to turn northward and move toward cooler waters
and into a region of unfavorable upper-level winds, which should
limit additional development. Regardless of development, periods
of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over Bermuda
through tonight. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[TheGhostOfJohnBolaris]

18z picked up the crack pipe

[GaWx]

38 minutes ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said:

18z picked up the crack pipe

I think that the GFS has been smoking the crack pipe for days, but now we can add Happy Hour's effects to the mix.

[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I think that the GFS has been smoking the crack pipe for days, but now we can add Happy Hour's effects to the mix.

Yuuup. Hooks it west into Florida while growing enormous. Because that makes sense 

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I think that the GFS has been smoking the crack pipe for days, but now we can add Happy Hour's effects to the mix.

Maybe it's sniffing out something 

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe it's sniffing out something 

Maybe so/we'll see or maybe it has also been sniffing something.

Can anyone recall the last time the GFS with some support from the ICON sniffed out something in the Caribbean like this?

 We can follow the wave whose vorticity the GFS is focusing on as it is centered near 9-10 N, 51W. 

[raindancewx]

Pending the brief flare-up that should develop, June-October ACE is likely to match most closely with 1981, as 1988 has fallen off a bit (it was more active in October). So I fully expect another storm or two in November. Outside November 1932 (70+), you rarely get more than 25 ACE in November.

It's not uncommon for powerful storms to spin up in November, they just don't last very long. I'm expecting around 10 ACE for November. Four ACE is average since 1950.

[Amped]

Okay the 00z CMC has a storm, now I'm officially interested since it's on at least 2 models.

 

00z GFS says it's >50% of the ACE for the entire 2022 season. Seems to be the trend for the GFS this season.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Amped said:

Okay the 00z CMC has a storm, now I'm officially interested since it's on at least 2 models.

 

00z GFS says it's >50% of the ACE for the entire 2022 season. Seems to be the trend for the GFS this season.

The 0Z CMC with its CCar TCG is a much more believable scenario vs the GFS SECar TCG.

 I don't see the 0Z GFS on Tidbits. Where did you see it?

[GaWx]

On 5/15/2022 at 8:26 AM, bigtenfan said:

The GFS has had this for something like 15 runs in a row while none of the other models have anything like this. Either:

 

The GFS is on to a 2012 Sandy like coup that  gave the Euro the reputation that it had OR

 

It is on to a 2015 Mid Atlantic Blizzard forecast  that the Euro was alone on that never materialized and started the Euro's downward trend.

 

On 5/17/2022 at 4:05 PM, wxeyeNH said:

The GFS has been like a dog that will not just let go of his grip.  Jeez, run after run for day after day the GFS has been insistent that something is going to get going in the NW Caribbean or Gulf.  If this would ever come to fruition the GFS will have scored a total respect from me.  

 

 

 

On 5/18/2022 at 7:42 AM, cptcatz said:

Aaaaaand GFS has thrown in the towel.  That was fun while it lasted...

 Sound familiar? Back in mid May, there were something like 25 GFS runs in a row with W Caribbean TCG that lead to modeled H landfalls  in many cases while other models were mainly quiet. Then about a week after the first run with it, the GFS dropped it and never was heard from about this timeframe again. I think that's likely what's happening now with its E Car TCG. I suspect it will at some point throw in the towel on E Car TCG. Perhaps then it will change to a much more reasonable C or W Car TCG. Even the 0Z CMC has TCG in the C Car.

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

The 0Z CMC with its CCar TCG is a much more believable scenario vs the GFS SECar TCG.

 I don't see the 0Z GFS on Tidbits. Where did you see it?

I don't see anything on the gfs anymore 

[olafminesaw]

Recurves sharply OTS after a brush with Hispaniola 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I don't see anything on the gfs anymore 

For some reason, Tidbits doesn't have either the 0Z or 6Z GFS. But I later found them at Pivotal and Weathernerds.

  I have a lot of doubt that the GFS, ICON, and CMC are actually developing the same wave. What do others think?
 
 Based on what it has done many times in the recent past (~25 runs in a row in mid May in the W Car for example that turned out to be nothing), I still think the GFS is drunk with its E Car TCG into a H while still in the E Car. I'm also considering climo as well as the Euro and UKMET not having an E Car TCG.
 

 Looking closely at the 0Z UKMET maps, all it has is a very weak low (1012 mb) at the ABC Islands (12N, 69W) at hour 84 (a far different scenario vs the GFS) that then moves westward with no TCG into the far SW Car. It finally develops some in the far SW Car while still moving westward and ends up at 1007 mb at hour 168 near 11N, 82W (150 miles E of the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border).

  I'm still sticking with a C or W Car TCG, if there is any, by early to mid next week and expect no more than a weak low in the E Car preceding that possibility later this week that moves westward just N of SA.

[Low Pressure Lunacy]

New lemon is making my stomach hurt.

[GaWx]

 The 12Z Euro and UKMET continue with no TCG at all. However, they both have weak lows in the SW Car day 6+ that will need to be watched for potential TCG due to more favorable conditions, considering what the 12Z CMC and ICON as well as yesterday's 12Z JMA show, noting that climo favors that area over all others, La Nina climo, and recent decades of increased activity late in the season:

 Oct 21-31 geneses:  (add two more to this in the W Car for 2016-21)

  Nov 1-10 geneses: 

[cptcatz]

Although euro doesn't show anything, EPS is as bullish it's been with this afternoon's run. There's a few really strong ones in there...

[TheGhostOfJohnBolaris]

18z GFS seems like a much more reasonable run

[Amped]

2 hours ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said:

18z GFS seems like a much more reasonable run

Drifting around the Caribbean for 10 days in October/November doesn't really seem to likely.  Probably going to get picked up by a troff or tucked under the ridge into the central American coast  a lot sooner.   It pulls some Mahomes moves this run to stay over water.

[Amped]

00z gfs and 00z CMC are in.  They are in somewhat better agreement although the CMC is further west.  

 

They both agree that the upper level troff lifting out  from 120hrs-132hrs will be the instigating event.   THE SW end of it gets left behind in the E Caribbean and forms a TC when the trade winds resume to the north of it.

If the ridging over the gulf day 7-10 verifies It will likely force the storm to go over Nicaragua or Honduras.

 

[GaWx]

 0Z GFS: no TCG until the C Car. Much more reasonable.

 Edit: But then it forms a 2nd one behind it in the C Car that goes east lol. I'm not counting this part as reasonable lmao.

[jconsor]

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

12Z GFS seems doable, at least.  Has some ECENS support.

[GaWx]

 The 12Z Euro has a weak closed low form in the C Car, the first run doing that. Prior runs have had no more than a very weak low and that in the W Car. Let's see if this is the start of a trend on the Euro.

[olafminesaw]

GFS developed a TS only 84 hours out. May not be so far fetched this time

[TheGhostOfJohnBolaris]

3 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

GFS developed a TS only 84 hours out. May not be so far fetched this time

Euro seems to like it, albeit much less, around that same time

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said:

Euro seems to like it, albeit much less, around that same time

In addition to the potential that this first TC forms in the central Caribbean in a few days, the model consensus is suggesting that a 2nd TC may form in or near the SW Caribbean during the first few days of November. That includes the 0Z UKMET and yesterday's 12Z UKMET in addition to other models like the Euro, ICON, and GFS. The EPS, GEFS, and GEPS also are suggesting this has a good chance to occur. So, as crazy as it sounds, don't be surprised if we get both Lisa and Martin form in the Caribbean next week.

[jconsor]

 

[GaWx]

After pretty much being on its own having had nearly a week's worth of runs showing almost all hurricanes at peak in the E or C Caribbean, the 12Z GFS has no more than a TD to possibly low end TS from this on the entire run! That's pretty bad imho though it was fortunately pretty predictable due to doing this kind of thing on its own at times in the past. And now this run could turn out to be too weak!

 

 Edit: The 12Z EPS retains the idea of a possible 2nd TC (if the initial Car mandarin low actually has TCG) in or near the SW Caribbean in early November.

Edit: Regarding the "mandarined" low, the Happy Hour GFS more than likely is not even showing a TD with at most a weak TD for a short period. Too funny!

[Great Snow 1717]

Has anyone heard from DT????...asking for a friend..