2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[GaWx]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...KARL FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 94.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

 

 

[GaWx]

Do we need a separate thread for Karl?

 

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

Tropical Storm Karl has formed over the Bay of Campeche. Aircraft
and scatterometer data show a closed circulation with a relatively
large radius of maximum winds and a broad area of light and variable
winds near the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter
reconnaissance aircraft found believable SFMR wind speeds of 35 kt
and flight-level winds up to 46 kt while investigating the system.
The scatterometer data also showed a large area of 30-35 kt winds to
the north of the center. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt
based on these data.

Karl is moving slowly northwestward at an estimated 5 kt. The storm
is embedded in a high pressure system, and this motion is expected
to continue for the next day or so. Thereafter, the ridge is likely
to build westward and steer the cyclone southwestward into the coast
of Mexico in a few days. The official forecast is close to the
consensus guidance, though this is an uncertain forecast due to the
spread in the forecast track models near landfall.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are forecast to be conducive for
Karl during the next day or so. This should allow Karl to
strengthen before global models suggest the vertical wind shear
increases and causes gradual weakening before landfall. Rapid decay
is expected once the storm moves inland due to the mountainous
terrain. The NHC intensity forecast peaks at 45 kt in 24 h which is
close to the SHIPS guidance, though all of guidance is clustered
near this value.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec and in the southern Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and
adjacent coastal areas with possible mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico starting Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 19.6N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 20.3N 94.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 21.1N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 21.2N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 20.7N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 20.2N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.9N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake

[GaWx]

New thread for Karl, which will likely be hanging around for awhile due to expected quite slow movement:

 

[GaWx]

From CSU's two week update issued today:

"As the enhanced convection shifts slightly to the east over the two weeks, shear conditions may become more favorable for Caribbean tropical cyclone development late this month."

 During the 13 oncoming or current La Niña seasons since 1995, there have been these storms form in the Caribbean from late Oct through Nov that ended up having significant impact on land areas:

2020: Zeta, Eta, and Iota
2017: Philippe
2016: Otto
2011: Rina
2009: Ida
2008: Paloma
2007: Noel
2005: Beta
1999: Lenny
1998: Mitch

 These involved 10 of the 13 or over 75% (edited to add Philippe of 2017 and Rina of 2011) of the La Niña seasons since 1995.

 

 Edit (somewhat related to the above): check this out regarding November MHs to show how much the warmer globe has influenced the late season:

- MH in November 1999-2021: 6 (Iota, Eta, Otto, Paloma, Michelle, Lenny) or an average of one for every 4 seasons
- MH in November 1950-1998: 1 (Kate) or only one out of 39 seasons

Further edit:
- MH in November 1900-1949: 3 (1934, 1932, and 1912) or an average of one every 17 seasons
- MH in November 1851-1899: 0

 So, a total of 10 MH in November since 1851, with six of those 10 just since 1999. 

[Windspeed]

[MattPetrulli]

Interesting 12z Euro and EPS

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, MattPetrulli said:

Interesting 12z Euro and EPS

I'm also watching this as I posted about this elsewhere. It clearly isn't purely tropical, but I wonder if this could be a subtropical storm as it formed earlier near the mid 80s F Gulf Stream before moving NW and has highest winds near 40 knots. Keep in mind that earlier Euro runs going all of the way back 72 hours to the 12Z 10/13 run have been showing something similar forming off of the SE US coast toward this upcoming weekend. This idea has some support from the 12Z ICON and JMA as well as from ~20% of the 12Z EPS members as you hinted at.

 Also, one can see that the 18Z ICON 120 has it as that map is similar to the 12Z 126.

 
Edit: I forgot to mention that the 12Z UKMET also has something form early this upcoming weekend in the Bahamas that isn't classified as tropical and thus is probably ST.

[Windspeed]

Long range 12z GFS op is up to some Caribbean shenanigans...

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Long range 12z GFS op is up to some Caribbean shenanigans...

 The last two GFS runs have similar shenanigans. They're giving me ghost vibes because the GFS loves its ghosts, especially late in its runs. The latest example is what apparently won't occur next week. Many GFS/GEFS runs had had a Caribbean TS+ next week with no other model support and now that idea has been dropped.

  So, it appears that the next real Caribbean TC would be in November, if any at all. As mentioned earlier, November has had more than its share of impactful activity during recent La Niña seasons. So, I'm not counting out that possibility as of now.

[Floydbuster]

Looks like we have a new Lemon in the Atlantic. Could become "Lisa" and move westward for the next few days.

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern and Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A small non-tropical area of low pressure is located more than 
1400 miles east of Bermuda. While this system is currently only 
producing limited shower activity and environmental conditions are 
only marginally favorable, recent satellite wind data indicates it 
has maximum sustained winds near 40 mph. This low is forecast to 
move quickly westward at 20-25 mph across the subtropical Atlantic 
towards warmer waters, and could acquire some subtropical or 
tropical characteristics by early next week. Additional information 
on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Papin

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

Looks like we have a new Lemon in the Atlantic. Could become "Lisa" and move westward for the next few days.

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern and Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A small non-tropical area of low pressure is located more than 
1400 miles east of Bermuda. While this system is currently only 
producing limited shower activity and environmental conditions are 
only marginally favorable, recent satellite wind data indicates it 
has maximum sustained winds near 40 mph. This low is forecast to 
move quickly westward at 20-25 mph across the subtropical Atlantic 
towards warmer waters, and could acquire some subtropical or 
tropical characteristics by early next week. Additional information 
on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Papin

 It actually has been on most models for at least several days of runs. Most runs have this low or its remnant moisture either going into the NE US or SE Canada mid next week or else recurving sharply and staying offshore those areas.

 Edit: The 18Z GFS takes the surface low across Cape Cod and then into Maine.

[Floydbuster]

Three runs in a row of the GFS model showing a monster hurricane near Puerto Rico first week of November, similar to Lenny 1999.

[AChilders]

11 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

Three runs in a row of the GFS model showing a monster hurricane near Puerto Rico first week of November, similar to Lenny 1999.

Make that 4 runs in a row

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, AChilders said:

Make that 4 runs in a row

5 runs now in a row 

[Floydbuster]

If the system in the Atlantic steals the name "Lisa", then this Caribbean hurricane would become "Martin", which was the replacement name for late-season Caribbean "Matthew", which was the replacement name for late-season Caribbean "Mitch".

 

[TheGhostOfJohnBolaris]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

5 runs now in a row 

Huge shift west this last one after an east trend

[Windspeed]

Huge shift west this last one after an east trend

That's nearly a pattern flip. Notice the WAR appear out if nowhere versus previous runs. New Foundland low gone. May be a flook or something to watch for upcoming runs.

[TheGhostOfJohnBolaris]

20 hours ago, Windspeed said:

21 hours ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said:

Huge shift west this last one after an east trend

That's nearly a pattern flip. Notice the WAR appear out if nowhere versus previous runs. New Foundland low gone. May be a flook or something to watch for upcoming runs.

Interesting..

[GaWx]

 The 12Z GFS is through hour 252 (with just a 1002 mb low) the weakest it has been in the Caribbean with this system since way back to the 0Z 10/21 run. It had had in nearly all of its runs since then (nine runs) hurricanes at that forecast time (as strong as 938 mb!). Even though I've been harping on the idea of a good chance for one more TC this season with significant land impacts based on the last nine La Niña seasons and 2/3 of La Niña seasons since 1964 having had one form either in late Oct or Nov, this GFS E Caribbean TCG has continued to look ghosty to me based on a general lack of support by other models in the E Caribbean, the GFS seeming to involve something coming off of SA in this genesis (which the GFS suite has been wrong on a good number of times this season), and the rarity of TCG in the E Caribbean vs C or W Caribbean. I'm still on the alert for one more potentially impactful system this season but don't think this E Caribbean GFS TC is the one as it appears bogus to me.

 OTOH, a decent % of 0Z EPS members is hinting at TCG in the much more favored (per climo) W Caribbean around 10/31 to very early Nov. That's a much more believable possibility to me than this GFS TC.

 Edit: Despite the weaker start, the 12Z GFS run later goes ape shoot once again with this with a 952 mb H in the NE Caribbean on Nov 5th with it reaching H strength on 11/4. I'm not believing it. The prior run had a H by 11/1, yesterday's 18Z had it by 11/2, and yesterday's 12Z had it by 10/31.

[GaWx]

 The 12Z Euro as well as the 12Z EPS, similarly to the 0Z, are hinting at the possibility of TCG in the C or W Caribbean ~10/31-11/2 with ~25% of EPS members somewhat active fwiw. The Euro has light shear in the SW Caribbean then along with an upper high forming to the N in addition to a strengthening surface high to the NE increasing low level convergence. These all are suggestive of more favorable conditions for TCG in the W Caribbean in ~8-10 days.

 Climo:

Oct 21-31:

 

Nov 1-10:

[AnthonyEC]

18Z GFS not giving up yet 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, AnthonyEC said:

18Z GFS not giving up yet 

I still think the GFS is out to lunch with its climo unfavored E Caribbean geneses. The two recent runs are the weakest through late next week in the E Car, which imho is hinting to us that that is the case and that it will quite possibly stop showing E Car geneses within a few runs. OTOH, the 18Z GEFS is about as active with geneses in early November in the W Car as has been the case with any recent run. This is similar to the increased activity there on the two most recent EPS runs though the GEFS is quite a bit more active. Imho, it is the C or W Caribbean where we should be wary about a possible TCG next week rather than the E Car that the GFS has been insisting on.

[GaWx]

 And now the 0Z GFS at hour 198 has the strongest H it has had at that forecast timeframe with 970 mb S of Hispaniola.

[cptcatz]

06z still moving up in time with a 990mb at h156, 966mb at h180, and 939mb at h216.  12z ICON is on board but not much else.

[AChilders]

Only 2 of the 50 Euro members have formation of any type in the Caribbean

 

 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, cptcatz said:

06z still moving up in time with a 990mb at h156, 966mb at h180, and 939mb at h216.  12z ICON is on board but not much else.

 After having had the two weakest runs (yesterday's 12Z and 18Z) since the string of GFS ECar Hs started with the 6Z 10/21 run, the last two runs (0Z/6Z) have gone the opposite way to the strongest through hour 198 (12Z on 11/1)! I still think the GFS' idea of a H in the ECar is wrong and that any TCG, if there is any, would likely wait til the C or WCar. This is quite the interesting situation from a forecasting perspective with such major differences persisting among the main models! I still think the odds of one more significant land impacting TC somewhere in the W basin this season are pretty high based on recent decades of La Niña season history, especially since 2005.

[TheGhostOfJohnBolaris]

GFS seems to be putting Florida in play

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said:

GFS seems to be putting Florida in play

 Having already realized that FL as well as other areas in the W basin may very well still be at risk again before the end of the season based especially on recent La Niña climo, here's my take on this potential system fwiw:

 After having the two weakest runs since the 6Z 10/21 run at 12Z and 18Z yesterday and thus looking to me like it was quite possibly getting close to giving up on a H in the E Car, these last 3 (0Z, 6Z, 12Z) have been the strongest in the E Car! I still think the exclusive to GFS idea of a H in the E Car from this is out to lunch based on a combo of bias, relative lack of model support, and climo and that a TCG from this, if any, would thus wait til the C or W Caribbean, but we'll see. The GFS has done this kind of thing in the past where it would stubbornly hold onto a H run after run on its own only to later abandon it, sometimes abruptly. It is almost as if the GFS is a trolling model at times lol.

[TheGhostOfJohnBolaris]

Sure enough here’s the 12z GFS

5 hours ago, AChilders said:

Only 2 of the 50 Euro members have formation of any type in the Caribbean

 

 

 

[cptcatz]

I want to believe this could happen but after the shenanigans the GFS has played before in the Caribbean this season, I'm not gonna get on board until there's other model agreement. Icon is on board but I'll need more than just that.