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2022 Atlantic Hurricane season


StormchaserChuck!
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20 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

The people commenting on a 240 GFS or euro for that matter are smart enough to realize it’s fantasy they’re just looking at what the model is showing

..it's along the same lines of men flipping through the SI Swimsuit issue and thinking "future wife"...

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18 hours ago, ldub23 said:

2 into 1? Dont  look at the  18Z gfs then. I realize this  is  highly  unlikely to happen. Even in the  most active seasons you  dont see this.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_53.png

 

A bit  later

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_57.png

 

2 potential major  hurricanes approaching the  US coast 600 miles apart  on the same day?

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_61.png

 

Call an ambulance for  JB!! I think he  just fainted.

Nah, he's working on his winter forecast for the northeast instead of cold and snowy he is going snowy and cold for the northeast..

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40 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

I'm definitely concerned that every time the development time frame for a system has pushed below 100 hours, the models have dropped it. Happened to the wave before the one at 25W, happening to the current wave, and may happen to the one behind it.

 

Still very dry out there, and every wave coming off of Africa has been stripped of convection by 35-40W. If this doesn't change soon we could see a season bust of epic proportions.

c4c29ef4-e830-45b8-b784-e5ee734e4f6d.jpeg

yea, and while  12Z  has a hurricane  its delaying things  once  more  by developing another wave further  back in Africa. At this rate it wont be till Oct for the  super favorable to get  here.

 

As  i said  before even in the deadest  of dead seasons we  had waves with showers to track that  got across the Atlantic. Lets go for  the  big records!!! 0/0/0 Sept and  no canes.

 

By the way the wave that  miraculously develops does so encased  in bone dry  air. Please, i beg you tropical Gods, give  me a  shower  i can track across the Atlantic.

 

The  2 best quotes of this season will be DT'S post  referenced below "August will be Sideways" and  JB issuing a "Fast and Furious Watch" 3 weeks ago.

 

Sorry i have to keep adding to my awesomely  brilliant  posts but  i can only  grace you with awesomeness  5 times a day

In the  interest  of fairness  here  is some "good" news.

 

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19 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

yea, and while  12Z  has a hurricane  its delaying things  once  more  by developing another wave further  back in Africa. At this rate it wont be till Oct for the  super favorable to get  here.

 

As  i said  before even in the deadest  of dead seasons we  had waves with showers to track that  got across the Atlantic. Lets go for  the  big records!!! 0/0/0 Sept and  no canes.

 

By the way the wave that  miraculously develops does so encased  in bone dry  air. Please, i beg you tropical Gods, give  me a  shower  i can track across the Atlantic.

 

The  2 best quotes of this season will be DT'S post  referenced below "August will be Sideways" and  JB issuing a "Fast and Furious Watch" 3 weeks ago.

See the source image

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Below is the latest SAL analysis, this one as of 15Z/11 AM EDT today. Note that the weak E ATL low/wave is actually just to the SE of the SAL as the SAL stops near 28W within the MDR and this wave is at 26W. 

 What are the board's thoughts with regard to SAL as it pertains to this AEW?

 

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I think we'll know by next weekend, if the Antilles bound wave is acting as forecast, and by much earlier, by Wednesday, if the weak cyclone forms, a JB full back blocking SAL/moistening the atmosphere before getting injured is forming.  The big ticket storm is developing or it isn't by Saturday or Sunday.  This isn't waiting 10 days to see if the model was correct. 

 

Homebrew fish storm, if GFS verifies last few days of August, uses a name.  Antilles storm would be named by the end of the month, and although 15 day GFS unlikely to be correct (close to the Yucatan), but with heights building over the SE as the storm moves West, Mexico to Central Gulf would be in play if GFS is  even just close.  Ridge builds back more slowly, Florida is in the game.  At hour 384, GFS, to me, is just another ensemble member  But August 2.5/1/0.5 would be my opening line if I had a weather casino.  0/0/0 seems unlikely.

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This is not an incredibly scientific analysis, but it seems that over the past several weeks waves have come off Africa and languished between 20-30W, with no sustained forward motion cutting through the SAL. The monsoon trough has been fairly active but it almost seems as if vorticities have strung out in an area of disturbed weather rather than punching through as an AOI. 

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15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Below is the latest SAL analysis, this one as of 15Z/11 AM EDT today. Note that the weak E ATL low/wave is actually just to the SE of the SAL as the SAL stops near 28W within the MDR and this wave is at 26W. 

 What are the board's thoughts with regard to SAL as it pertains to this AEW?

 SAL082122at15Z.thumb.jpg.694e0b1df947a345f052bde3fc7734c2.jpg

The guidance that tried to develop this quickly has obviously backed off, but I think this one is a legitimate candidate to develop past 60W for a couple reasons. 

First, it's moving through the basin at a time when we see a favorable MJO and CCKW passage. That raises the odds that when it does find a more favorable environment it is able to fire convection and organize.

Second, unlike the other waves thus far, this one has a large moisture envelope. CIMSS has some wonderful tropical products, and one of them tracks PW. While the wave is too broad and too close to the SAL to develop now, it may be able to start its sputtering engine when it is clear of the stable layer. The caveat is that something so broad can take so long to tighten that it runs right through its development window without TC genesis. 

Time sensitive loop
mimictpw_natl_latest.gif

 

You actually see this fairly consistently on the operational guidance--showing the wave near the Antilles in about a week and still somewhat coherent. It's enough to make development a coin flip but it's a marginal shot at this range absent better information on what shear will look like. 

I actually like this wave because of what it does for the follow up one. That has a relatively high level of support among ensembles for MDR development because it should be coming in further south into an even more favorable environment as currently modeled.

We'll see what happens but I'd actually be shocked if one of those two waves didn't develop. 

 

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I know it is from a wave west of the one now just west of the CVs and may be from the one recently near 40W: ICON keeps developing a low just E of the L Antilles that I can't find on any of the other models. Anyone else notice this?

 

49673E79-D588-46ED-A90D-D825DE4E6BB2.thumb.png.e67b340559de680761ab2aa764bfe7ba.png

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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Raise your hand if a few weeks ago you thought we’d be sitting on August 21st looking past hour 220 on the 18z GFS run trying to find our “D” storm… It’s going to pick up but my oh my what a lackluster stretch 

I mean to be fair on average we usually only have maybe 2 or 3 named storms by this point. So this isn't too weird. It'll be odd if barely anything forms once we hit September. That's why I never get myself hyped up with forecasts for an active season because there's so many variables that can change and I'd rather look at what's happening a week down the line rather than what could happen months down the line. We also can't expect every year to be like 2020 and 2021, eventually the Atlantic has to take a break from all that record activity and recharge.

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1 hour ago, tiger_deF said:

Oh look, the operational GFS trended even weaker with both waves and pushed the timeframe of the actual TC back. What a surprise...

Feels like mid-July

I do believe the 18 Z had a stronger storm than the 12z but I could be wrong When all said and done 

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14 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

I mean to be fair on average we usually only have maybe 2 or 3 named storms by this point. So this isn't too weird. It'll be odd if barely anything forms once we hit September. That's why I never get myself hyped up with forecasts for an active season because there's so many variables that can change and I'd rather look at what's happening a week down the line rather than what could happen months down the line. We also can't expect every year to be like 2020 and 2021, eventually the Atlantic has to take a break from all that record activity and recharge.

Not entirely accurate. We’re way below average on most counts. On average a hurricane forms in the Atlantic by August 11, which were 10 days past and adding to that. Also, yes there have been 3 storms, but none made it 2 days and one was a TS for like 6 hours. Our seasonal ACE is at a anemic, bottom % for this time of year, level. There have been 3 (3!) August’s in history without a named storm, and we are going to be flirting with rarified territory there. I think we’ll get a NS but we’re running out of wiggle room on that front, rapidly. 
 

Lastly, this was forecast to be a “hyperactive” year, so seasonal #’s are and will continue to be more scrutinized than say if the forecasts predicted an average season. 1999 is a popular analog, but by the end of this week that year we had 3 cat 4’s. That’s not happening this year. Maybe the script flips but we are starting WAY behind the 8-ball

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 As mentioned, the 12Z EPS was more active with the AEW W of the CVs vs the 6Z/0Z. The 18Z EPS is even a bit more active with it in having 5 members (10%) with SLP 1000-1003 mb at hour 144. The 12Z run had only 3 that strong, the 6Z had only 2, and the 0Z had none.

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 At DMAX, one can clearly see on this image (as of 06Z on 8/22/22) a pickup in convection centered on the westward moving weak surface low centered near 16N, 30W, as it stays away from the back edge of the SAL, which is just to its NW and N also moving westward:
06z082222AtlanticSat.thumb.gif.e499e59085307a966e31fe577f0d24ef.gif

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The 0z EPS is pretty bullish with three waves in the next 10 days: it starts to develop the current 20% lemon just north of the Caribbean and ends the run with it on a crash course into Florida.  The next wave seems a bit messy in the central Atlantic but the third wave looks to be a vigorous one.  Looks like the main story of the models is they have no idea how to handle this monsoon trough.

35342837.gif

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13 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Raise your hand if a few weeks ago you thought we’d be sitting on August 21st looking past hour 220 on the 18z GFS run trying to find our “D” storm… It’s going to pick up but my oh my what a lackluster stretch 

*Raises  hand. I remain very  unimpressed. It also looks  like the East Pac  is  going to get active again flooding the Sahara with even more shear. GA  is right though, for the first time  in a  very  long time there  is a wave  in the Sahara with a shower!!

 

Andy brings  up a  good  point. Everything seems to be a  "go" and he  doesnt  even mention the  toasty SST'S yet the  Sahara remains sitting  on the toilet constipated as  hell.

I  have already  made that  conclusion. NEVER FEAR!!! JB is  once again predicting  hyperactive.

 

With things so dead slow would  1 TD  that  quickly  dissipates count as hyperactive?

 

Finally i have  my preliminary forecast  for  2023. I will certainly  make revisions  but there are some  indications the  el nino may not  be terribly strong so im going with 11/7/3. El nino or  not conditions  in the Sahara  cant  be as  bad as this season.

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15 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

*Raises  hand. I remain very  unimpressed. It also looks  like the East Pac  is  going to get active again flooding the Sahara with even more shear. GA  is right though, for the first time  in a  very  long time there  is a wave  in the Sahara with a shower!!

 

Andy brings  up a  good  point. Everything seems to be a  "go" and he  doesnt  even mention the  toasty SST'S yet the  Sahara remains sitting  on the toilet constipated as  hell.

I  have already  made that  conclusion. NEVER FEAR!!! JB is  once again predicting  hyperactive.

 

With things so dead slow would  1 TD  that  quickly  dissipates count as hyperactive?

 

Finally i have  my preliminary forecast  for  2023. I will certainly  make revisions  but there are some  indications the  el nino may not  be terribly strong so im going with 11/7/3. El nino or  not conditions  in the Sahara  cant  be as  bad as this season.

My early feelings are it will be relatively potent, but probably more of a modoki. I think the problem  that plagues seasonal forecasts that incorporate ENSO is that they tend to generalize, and ENSO events can have pretty drastically different impacts around the hemisphere due to not only differences in strength, but the location of where the anomalies are focused.

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