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Feb 1 -3 GHD III


Brian D
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58 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Am I reading that correctly? 30 inches in Northern Ohio?

Yeah, the models shifted GHD I northwest a day or so before the storm.

20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

No guarantees and each system is different, but if you had to ask me if I'd rather be riding the southern edge or north of where the modeled heaviest axis is right now, I know which one I'd pick.  Have seen too many times over the years anything from drifts to rather large leaps north in the few days prior.  Anecdotally that seems to happen more than south trends with bigger events.  Lots of factors at play though so who knows which way this will go.

Yup, I've noticed it too. Has happened with many systems. There tends to be a regression toward what the climate favors.

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The only thing making me feel a little better in a potential GFS solution is the fact that the OP and ensembles have been in relatively good agreement for days with minimal north to south shifts. Euro is having drastic shifts run to run as Stebo pointed out. Just would be nice to see some model support for it. 

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2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Are you throwing in the towel now? Don't give up on me yet. If you give up, I will. I'm trying to give it till Mon. But would like to see some model support in favor of GFS. Odds definitely seem against us. 

Honestly as of right now the GFS does have more support, the NAM is similarly looking at 84 hours and the GEM came north. The Euro is being uncharacteristically weird rn, it usually doesn't flip flop this much.

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7 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Honestly as of right now the GFS does have more support, the NAM is similarly looking at 84 hours and the GEM came north. The Euro is being uncharacteristically weird rn, it usually doesn't flip flop this much.

Canadian isn't as spread the wealth as other models but glad it came north. Hopefully the trend continues. Nam looks like it has potential but I never trust nam at this range. Lol

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10 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Are you throwing in the towel now? Don't give up on me yet. If you give up, I will. I'm trying to give it till Mon. But would like to see some model support in favor of GFS. Odds definitely seem against us. 

Yeah I'm throwing the towel for here for anything more than a minor event.  Still a ways to go but looks like a St. Louis to Toledo type of event.  They've paid their dues and sat on the sidelines the past few months so at least our sacrifice will be for the better good lol.  

Hopefully we get a heart attack cement storm for the ages in March.

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Yes I stayed awake for the 6z NAM.  It's the weekend haha

St. Louis gets about a foot of snow in roughly 15 hours verbatim.  As mentioned earlier, this thing looks like it's going to come out swinging with a pretty rapidly developing snow band w/good rates.

 

06-Z-20220130-NAMMW-prec-kuchsnow-66-84-

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27 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yes I stayed awake for the 6z NAM.  It's the weekend haha

St. Louis gets about a foot of snow in roughly 15 hours verbatim.  As mentioned earlier, this thing looks like it's going to come out swinging with a pretty rapidly developing snow band w/good rates.

 

06-Z-20220130-NAMMW-prec-kuchsnow-66-84-

Looks a bit like bliz of '82 which really hammered STL, and was very favorable to SCMI on over to SEMI and KTOL as well. 

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  • Brian D changed the title to Feb 1 -3 GHD III
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