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Feb 1 -3 GHD III


Brian D
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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yes. I understand what a co-op observer does. There just isn't enough of them to cover localized lake effect snow to get a general idea of snowfall totals. When 10-15 reports are coming in from cocarahs and NWS employees of greater than 49" of snow in 24 hours. The NWS employee from Elma reported over 54" than that chart is wrong. Cocarahs has training classes as well, I've taken a few.

True to the bolded.

That's why I said it's all boils down to what data they used to make that map. Perhaps their intention was to only focus on first order sites where co-op observers measure snow using NWS equipment and guidelines.

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9 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

I wish I were even remotely surprised. Good things don't happen for us. 

They have in the past just in a rut the last several years with city and south performing better combined with lake bail out. 

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Quicker should be north but it's not this time.  What's the issue in your view?  Sorry I have like no time right now.

Some of the positives we saw, such as with the 12z run, stepped back.

PV in Canada was further SW, along with associated area of confluence. Heights also steadily lower ahead of the main ejecting wave.

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1 minute ago, Jonger said:

If this shifts 50 miles south I'll lose this storm.

 

Ya, the south trend I hope stops haha. But overall even another shift south should still have you get 3-6". I know it would be a tough pill to swallow but only a few days ago I was ready for upper 40s and rain so if your telling me I have to settle for a run of the mill snow event and retain most of my snowpack sign me up 

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Just now, mississaugasnow said:

Ya, the south trend I hope stops haha. But overall even another shift south should still have you get 3-6". I know it would be a tough pill to swallow but only a few days ago I was ready for upper 40s and rain so if your telling me I have to settle for a run of the mill snow event and retain most of my snowpack sign me up 

I use the snow for snowmobiling and there's no trail system south of me to even drive to if that happens. A bit early to stress over it.

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No guarantees and each system is different, but if you had to ask me if I'd rather be riding the southern edge or north of where the modeled heaviest axis is right now, I know which one I'd pick.  Have seen too many times over the years anything from drifts to rather large leaps north in the few days prior.  Anecdotally that seems to happen more than south trends with bigger events.  Lots of factors at play though so who knows which way this will go.

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22 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

No guarantees and each system is different, but if you had to ask me if I'd rather be riding the southern edge or north of where the modeled heaviest axis is right now, I know which one I'd pick.  Have seen too many times over the years anything from drifts to rather large leaps north in the few days prior.  Anecdotally that seems to happen more than south trends with bigger events.  Lots of factors at play though so who knows which way this will go.

Well I'm close to Akron so I want a south trend! lol

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