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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Suppose i suspected the surface to look better with an earlier negative tilt but maybe the broadness lets the low escape just enough east first.

Maybe. Or like sometimes we see a delay with the surface reflection until next suite. Who knows. You're probably right tho about the trof being slightly broader.

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not by much. Another adjustment or two like this....

It looks pretty similar to the prior couple of runs to me as to where the low ends up off the coast. We need the trough sharper. And again, it's the NAM. We need almost a due north movement from where it forms off of Florida. If that happened from where it formed we would be in business.

The early stuff looks better, but aren't temperatures supposed to be pretty warm on Friday? Not sure how much of that would accumulate.

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Just now, osfan24 said:

It looks pretty similar to the prior couple of runs to me as to where the low ends up off the coast. We need the trough sharper. And again, it's the NAM. We need almost a due north movement from where it forms off of Florida. If that happened from where it formed we would be in business.

The early stuff looks better, but aren't temperatures supposed to be pretty warm on Friday? Not sure how much of that would accumulate.

Mid 30s is not pretty warm lol

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At 18z yesterday the NAM jumped the low center East towards some of the convection. It corrected itself at 0z and 6z. 12z seems to try and do that again after 42hrs and jumps the low ENE. Would think the surface low would be more inclined to hug the baro zone tbh. Not saying "tucked" but the 150 mile jumps to convective flareups seem sus to me. 

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

At 18z yesterday the NAM jumped the low center East towards some of the convection. It corrected itself at 0z and 6z. 12z seems to try and do that again after 42hrs and jumps the low ENE. Would think the surface low would be more inclined to hug the baro zone tbh. Not saying "tucked" but the 150 mile jumps to convective flareups seem sus to me. 

I believe thats why the sharpness matters of the trough.  Energy doesn't consolidate and some escapes east.

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4 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Looks about 32 in dc when snow starts at 18z.

The NAM has like 2-3 inches of snow from that and it snows for hours and hours. Light rates like that are never going to accumulate, at least not on paved surfaces, when the temp is near freezing during the day. Grass, sure.

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Just now, osfan24 said:

The NAM has like 2-3 inches of snow from that and it snows for hours and hours. Light rates like that are never going to accumulate, at least not on paved surfaces, when the temp is near freezing during the day. Grass, sure.

Never mind the fact that it's been below freezing the past few days... like way below freezing

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2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

The NAM has like 2-3 inches of snow from that and it snows for hours and hours. Light rates like that are never going to accumulate, at least not on paved surfaces, when the temp is near freezing during the day. Grass, sure.

RonBurgundyIDontBelieveYou.gif

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2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

The NAM has like 2-3 inches of snow from that and it snows for hours and hours. Light rates like that are never going to accumulate, at least not on paved surfaces, when the temp is near freezing during the day. Grass, sure.

Snow is snow with a beer in the hand on Friday night (good country song starting point there).

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19 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

The NAM has like 2-3 inches of snow from that and it snows for hours and hours. Light rates like that are never going to accumulate, at least not on paved surfaces, when the temp is near freezing during the day. Grass, sure.

Yeah, good point. But at least in MBY inside the beltway, the ground has actually been frozen this year. That did not last year. Fingers crossed for an inch or two on the grass at least tomorrow afternoon/evening.

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11 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

We shall see. Just like in sports, the fun part is the game is played and we get to see what happens.

It would be great if this played out like the Bills/Chiefs game.....Bring the goods late. :-)  I know that won't happen, but it's always good to wish. 

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