Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


WxUSAF
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Wouldn’t want to be forecasting for the eastern shore right now, that’s for sure.

Hello folks, ya so in about 48hrs expect some snow showers or a full on 1-2’ blizzard. Cause you know…F it… 

Or for NYC, or for Boston. Don’t remember any storm like this in the last 5+++ years, so close in, with so much wild uncertainty for so many millions of people 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

GEM looks fairly similar to NAM, a big hit for the coastal regions, some snow back to west of DC, probably in the 3-6" range for DC, 6-8" BAL, 10-20" DMV. 

Can't see all this energy interacting with the warm water to produce a GFS result, seems to ignore the development at 500 mb. If there were extra upper air obs they weren't plotted on the 00z CMC maps by the way. In the past when I've heard about these extra obs, they show up in the investigation zone on the maps. 

I think if the ECM is not a clone of the GFS then the GFS will have to be taken as dubious guidance, if ECM looks like GFS then we wait for a decision tomorrow. 

Roger, any similarities to this storm and Feb. 5-7, 1978 in terms of coastal snow and wind impacts?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, WinterFire said:

I don’t know if we like him anymore or not, and this might be wishcasting, but it is an interesting explanation of the 0z suite so far:

 

My issue is it's easy to say 'bad data' but that doesn't account for the many times it's never second guessed when it shows what you want.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

My issue is it's easy to say 'bad data' but that doesn't account for the many times it's never second guessed when it shows what you want.

This my local Mets just embraced the jog west and locked it in. But models shows western tracks or a jog they say to early to call

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Roger, any similarities to this storm and Feb. 5-7, 1978 in terms of coastal snow and wind impacts?

Structural differences, the 1978 storm was trapped below a much stronger high and was not progressive, the 1980 storm that I mentioned followed a track similar to what the NAM was showing earlier. There might end up being similar snow totals in some places even so. The Mar 1 to 3 1980 storm dropped a tremendous amount of snow around Virginia Beach if I remember correctly there were reports of 24-28 inches and five to ten foot drifts. DC had about 8-10" and there was no snow at all in NYC. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, weathercoins said:

Eh if it’s a single outlier this close in I think it would be, to an extent at least 

Yeah I mean...we'll see what the Euro says...if that comes back west too then you'd have to think there's a problem. THIS close in, if the GFS is right, you'd think the models we would see the other models going more towards it not shifting west of it again

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, yoda said:

Anyone know the last time PRE and winter weather were discussed in the same sentence?  Interesting mention by LWX in their AFD about it

@csnavywx @WxUSAF

Ha, that's the first thing I thought when I saw those progs a few days ago. Looks just like a PRE setup, but in January. They can persist for some time and it's that kind of setup (mid-level f-gen max across the DGZ) that can overperform pretty nicely. Might end up being the thing that "saves" the event for most of the subforum.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, WinterFire said:

I don’t know if we like him anymore or not, and this might be wishcasting, but it is an interesting explanation of the 0z suite so far:

 

He's on the level. Was (correctly) poo-pooing the events last week because of the missed phase (among other issues). Personally, I want to see a continuation through 12z and no more "diurnal rocking" before committing.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • mappy locked and unpinned this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...