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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


WxUSAF
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6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Nah, I feel terrible for dropping false hope.  I promise you I won't be back.  Plus I've had like a bottle of wine and my old ass is about to hit the bed.  Good luck tho, seriously.  

Don’t think you dropped false hope. It’s a better run even if it’s not the *best* run at the surface. Keeps us in this silly game 

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3 minutes ago, mattskiva said:

Presumably Garrett and Tucker will get a lot more from upslope than would show on the models.  That usually isn't modeled very well.

 

Yeah, undermodeled as is the orographic lift, I’ve noticed.  I don’t think this is an ideal upslope scenario though with the position of that LP being that offshore and heading ENE.  There’s a good deal of energy on the backside of the trough swinging through so that’s the wildcard.  Will definitely get enhancement from upslope but don’t think it’ll be huge.  I could be wrong though.

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It’s the NAM. 
 

But, and my only comment for the night … of all the storms I’ve ever followed, I think this is the most intricate that I’ve ever seen. The smallest of things seem to have a huge outcome on what actually might happen. I truly do not think we will know what may happen until tomorrow night at the earliest. And no, I don’t think I’m gonna suddenly get six inches of snow. But this is wild.

Im going to bed tonight thinking it may snow. Who knows.

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I wanted to wait to post this after the models confirmed what I've known all along but I didn't want to post until they showed what I was thinking. 2" for my back yard...sorry folks just saying what I knew would happen but wanted to wait to say it.

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9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I wanted to wait to post this after the models confirmed what I've known all along but I didn't want to post until they showed what I was thinking. 2" for my back yard...sorry folks just saying what I knew would happen but wanted to wait to say it.

so you're Leesburg to Sykesville to Broadlands to Aldie?  which "back yard"?

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