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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


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1 minute ago, SnowDreamer said:

It’s interesting that anecdotally the GFS has been taking the EURO’s lunch money this month with these scores. 

Verification is on a global scale and the spread is pretty tight. It's been long speculated that different globals are better than each other at different things. Depends on near infinite variables so broad brush verification scores don't really tell us much. Especially when talking about a 50 mile difference in storm track or whatever  

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17 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

There it is, SREF talk. It's pre-Boxing Day all over again. 

Idk if you remember but it was the night of dec 23rd or xmas eve IIRC that the 18z runs started coming way west and then NCEP said there were initialization errors. Then when 0z miraculously kept coming west it was on. 

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1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Idk if you remember but it was the night of dec 23rd or xmas eve IIRC that the 18z runs started coming way west and then NCEP said there were initialization errors. Then when 0z miraculously kept coming west it was on. 

It was the 18z run on Christmas Eve. Best run for NW of Baltimore. 

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Just now, DDweatherman said:

Just for shits cuz what else do we have to do I'm running side by side of 0z vs 12z from earlier. Lets see what we get

This late in the game I have no interest in subatomic level analysis at h5. I'll just have another glass of wine and check the snow maps in a bit.

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13 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Idk if you remember but it was the night of dec 23rd or xmas eve IIRC that the 18z runs started coming way west and then NCEP said there were initialization errors. Then when 0z miraculously kept coming west it was on. 

I remember it all. Including the hundreds of dollars in ticketing charges to get on a flight in time to beat the storm home. 

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