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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


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3 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Lotta despair in here for well -- not much of a good reason yet, from what I can see. Maybe the west side folks, but even that is going to cash in on high-ratio fluff from the long duration f-gen event ahead of the low. GFS is doing its typical gradual, but noisy walk NW in the short range. Does nobody remember last week?

As in the storm before the mix to rain?  

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3 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

:o

I hope everyone read that in their mothers voice, telling them to cut it out. lol 

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oooooooh somebody gonna get in trou-bllllle Oooooooooh

(sorry couldn't resist)

Nope. Just trying to diffuse the situation for those reading and looking for model run information. We are moving along and thats that. 

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So to speak on the second piece of energy that could extend/enhance our snow: the ULL pass. Look on Pivotal at the GFS 3hr precipitation over the Mid-Atlantic from hour 57-69. Watch an area of precipitation start near the Blue Ridge near Roanoke and the NC mountains and then it expands and moves east toward RIC. 
 

IF that happens farther north, and we get in on that AND the arctic front, we could get warning level snows west of the Bay.

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5 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Lotta despair in here for well -- not much of a good reason yet, from what I can see. Maybe the west side folks, but even that is going to cash in on high-ratio fluff from the long duration f-gen event ahead of the low. GFS is doing its typical gradual, but noisy walk NW in the short range. Does nobody remember last week?

i hope you're right with the fgen because the coastal low is about 200+ miles east of OC right now.  if it's gonna trend west, it needs to start asap.

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Well in hindsight, ( caveat..... so far  )  HM's tweet might end up being correct, in stating that his expectations were zero for this area with this type of storm. Actually, he was referring to Philly so that makes the statement even more depressing for areas South and West. But maybe we can be saved by Jack Sillin.  

 

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Just now, ravensrule said:

We have lost the JMA :weep:

 

image.thumb.png.1c3858d938cee61af54dbd4d8c4a70d2.png

The JMA being so amped was one of the few things we had going for us. That run makes a lot more sense given where the other models currently stand. The goalposts continue to narrow. Going to need to get Justin Tucker out here to have a prayer.

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Well in hindsight, ( caveat..... so far  )  HM's tweet might end up being correct, in stating that his expectations were zero for this area with this type of storm. Actually, he was referring to Philly so that makes the statement even more depressing for areas South and West. But maybe we can be saved by Jack Sillin.  

 

Philly, like NYC, is much more dependent on the coastal. It’s more all or nothing for them, while we hopefully have a couple consolation offers at play. Although probably Philly area gets in on the Friday evening fluff.

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If the Euro caves fully to the GFS can you seriously even consider it useful any longer for East Coast Snowstorms?

Four days before the event you had the EPS, Euro Op and Control with decent to very robust snowfall projections for our area.  I know it has been pointed out that the GFS Op has had a significant upgrade, but for the GFS to match or possibly exceed in this case the forecast abilities of the Euro ensembles/OP. etc so relatively close to game time is to me stunning.     

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1 minute ago, frd said:

If the Euro caves fully to the GFS can you seriously even consider it useful any longer for East Coast Snowstorms?

Four days before the event you had the EPS, Euro Op and Control with decent to very robust snowfall projections for our area.  I know it has been pointed out that the GFS Op has had a significant upgrade, but for the GFS to match or possibly exceed in this case the forecast abilities of the Euro ensembles/OP. etc so relatively close to game time is to me stunning.     

The Euro has been awful this winter. That said, like PSU mentioned, we do know the Euro/NAM have a bias of amping these Milller B's too much and often the actual cutoff is 50 miles or so east of what those models show. So if you take that into account and that bias still exists, it looks more like the GFS and you can forecast off of that. But that's just for this particular setup, so obviously for other setups, it is still an issue.

It also seems like the GFS has performed better this winter after it had been upgraded. We will see if it wins this one. It has company with the CMC, which usually seems to side more with the Euro.

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Just now, osfan24 said:

The Euro has been awful this winter. That said, like PSU mentioned, we do know the Euro/NAM have a bias of amping these Milller B's too much and often the actual cutoff is 50 miles or so east of what those models show. So if you take that into account and that bias still exists, it looks more like the GFS and you can forecast off of that. But that's just for this particular setup, so obviously for other setups, it is still an issue.

It also seems like the GFS has performed better this winter after it had been upgraded. We will see if it wins this one. It has company with the CMC, which usually seems to side more with the Euro.

Believe the Euro has been over amping all systems so far this winter. But yes,  good points. 

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Just now, nj2va said:

Where are you hearing that?  Didn't CAPE post a tweet a few pages back saying the opposite based on RAOB data?

If correct about the RAOB data and the Euro doing better out West then maybe the GFS will be somewhat incorrect with its 12z run evolution. Heard it from a met.   

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