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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


WxUSAF
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1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Trust me, I want this one to happen for us, so let the beer commence. 

I get it though, these models can throw us all for a loop. 18z GFS is a prime example. If you read a lot of the folks posts coming up to the prime frames, you'd think jaws was coming. Surface didn't turn out and by hr 84 the trough was a bit broad, even though it was night and day from the past few. You're right in that being the main reason to just hang tight. Now, if it looks like the 18z NAM was looking from real early on, we can play the jaws music. 

Thanks for being receptive. It’s appreciated.

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Imagine being such a butthurt troll that you need to create 2 burner accounts to come back to a place that doesnt want you. People are odd man. 

If you go by what was posted above, he has a slew of accounts ready to go. Sigh.

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2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Sorry, but a low that has a genesis off of FL is not a Miller B. Not in any book I've ever read or studied. Wish we'd stop with that.

100%   this. I was about to ask the people calling it a Miller B to circle the primary low on a map.  

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9 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

You got it. I'm liking that the most and its not a tangible thing, just a vibe thing. Arguably the most important 18z euro run in its history (don't think it was running yet in 2016). 

Id wait for the 18z France model that was posted earlier

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Something else to consider. It’s been mentioned that storm would need to pull northwest to really hit us. That isn’t true exactly. A storm that formed say near Myrtle beach would pass WEST of Winchester if it only came straight north. Northeast would work just fine if we could get the storm to form near there. Get that trough to go negative a bit earlier that storm would probably form earlier, and would probably, at least initially, travel more north northeast. Look at the height lines. They run probably more north northeast than they do northeast or east. And they go far to the north. 
 

I also think that once formed and moving, this storm is gonna fly.

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22 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Sorry, but a low that has a genesis off of FL is not a Miller B. Not in any book I've ever read or studied. Wish we'd stop with that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miller_Classification

Miller A - from the Gulf or Florida - Sandy 1993

Miller B - from the Ohio Valley, jumping the mountains to the Gulf Stream off NC - Snowmageddon 2010

If you have better references, please list them.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Something else to consider. It’s been mentioned that storm would need to pull northwest to really hit us. That isn’t true exactly. A storm that formed say near Myrtle beach would pass WEST of Winchester if it only came straight north. Northeast would work just fine if we could get the storm to form near there. Get that trough to go negative a bit earlier that storm would probably form earlier, and would probably, at least initially, travel more north northeast. Look at the height lines. They run probably more north northeast than they do northeast or east. And they go far to the north. 
 

I also think that once formed and moving, this storm is gonna fly.

A close off and vertically stacked system would help slow it down some (kinda like what the 12z euro did)

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32 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Sorry, but a low that has a genesis off of FL is not a Miller B. Not in any book I've ever read or studied. Wish we'd stop with that.

Ok, there’s a group of you, you know who you are, that can suck it :lol:
 

PSA — I’m only having fun with you

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7 minutes ago, bsperlin said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miller_Classification

Miller A - from the Gulf or Florida - Sandy 1993

Miller B - from the Ohio Valley, jumping the mountains to the Gulf Stream off NC - Snowmageddon 2010

If you have better references, please list them.

Right, genesis is off central FL coast and no discernable inland low. Not a Miller B.

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Ok, there’s a group of you, you know who you are, that can suck it :lol:
 

PSA — I’m only having fun with you

With how that precip map looked and would say you are closer to sucking it. 
 

Too soon?  I am only having fun too

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