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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


WxUSAF
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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If I had only looked at the H5, I would have jaws'd it up.  But surface tamped that down

Who honestly believes, that after the typical block breakdown mishandling, that it won't also display the sub 72-hour slow NW walk?

So long as the phase holds, I posit that it will.

Also, better horizontal resolution absolutely does improve handling of all of these interactions. Take a look at H5 vort on the NAM 12km vs 3km at tau 60 on this run and tell me that the 3km wouldn't be even better. Block is slightly stronger and phase is slightly better.

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Just now, csnavywx said:

Who honestly believes, that after the typical block breakdown mishandling, that it won't also display the sub 72-hour slow NW walk?

So long as the phase holds, I posit that it will.

Also, better horizontal resolution absolutely does improve handling of all of these interactions. Take a look at H5 vort on the NAM 12km vs 3km at tau 60 on this run and tell me that the 3km wouldn't be even better. Block is slightly stronger and phase is slightly better.

Im kinda thinking that, but it's the Mid Atlantic in me that's saying we will find a way to fail.

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1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

Who honestly believes, that after the typical block breakdown mishandling, that it won't also display the sub 72-hour slow NW walk?

So long as the phase holds, I posit that it will.

Also, better horizontal resolution absolutely does improve handling of all of these interactions. Take a look at H5 vort on the NAM 12km vs 3km at tau 60 on this run and tell me that the 3km wouldn't be even better. Block is slightly stronger and phase is slightly better.

Agreed. One thing I'd really like to see is some higher heights out in front NE of us. That can help once our low develops & if we do get a clean phase. We want our low to have as much of a due N component as possible. Backside energy dropping in can help with those heights. 

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9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That was a next level stealth "I'm still here" post...very well done, lol

Not stealthy enough apparently 

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

december 2009 lol 

If you can make a repeat happen, I’ll forget what I said earlier. 

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35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

For the type of setup, this one is trying hard af to hit on all cylinders. It could become the new "remember that unblocked northern stream phased luck bomb in 2022?" every time another pops up. Jan 2000 has been beat to death anyway

The USA beat the Soviets at the Olympics in 80. If this storm does the equivalent then we can call it something…

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Just now, DDweatherman said:

Shew, thats a lot of work... 

lol it is. The beer thing is still on though.

fwiw, you know your stuff, so I shouldn’t be that mean. Just wish you’d wait a moment and let the run run before analyzing it. I get it, some things look good before they show it, but it’s hard to follow what’s happening on the models, when you’re guessing what could happen before it happens. So many happens… 

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Im kinda thinking that, but it's the Mid Atlantic in me that's saying we will find a way to fail.

The phase is still a pain point, but that seems to be working out as the northern stream wave has trended slower. There's room for improvement on both ends, so long as the phase is still on the table.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Seriously, the character of this storm seems to be shifting. Let the ns and sw energy line up completely and we won’t be looking at anything at all like we were looking at Sunday and Monday.

You got it. I'm liking that the most and its not a tangible thing, just a vibe thing. Arguably the most important 18z euro run in its history (don't think it was running yet in 2016). 

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6 minutes ago, mappy said:

lol it is. The beer thing is still on though.

fwiw, you know your stuff, so I shouldn’t be that mean. Just wish you’d wait a moment and let the run run before analyzing it. I get it, some things look good before they show it, but it’s hard to follow what’s happening on the models, when you’re guessing what could happen before it happens. So many happens… 

Trust me, I want this one to happen for us, so let the beer commence. 

I get it though, these models can throw us all for a loop. 18z GFS is a prime example. If you read a lot of the folks posts coming up to the prime frames, you'd think jaws was coming. Surface didn't turn out and by hr 84 the trough was a bit broad, even though it was night and day from the past few. You're right in that being the main reason to just hang tight. Now, if it looks like the 18z NAM was looking from real early on, we can play the jaws music. 

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Seriously, the character of this storm seems to be shifting. Let the ns and sw energy line up completely and we won’t be looking at anything at all like we were looking at Sunday and Monday.

So it will B more Miller A?  
 

Clowngif 

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